Good read on the remaining big quesions in vaccine development

outside shooter

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Derek Lowe, the pharma medicinal chemist whose blog I have often linked:

Good info and very good hyperlinks.

The questions, and his bottom-line final conclusion (after a bit of analysis)

How long will the vaccine protection last?
...a strong, normal, lasting immune response in the great majority of patients. Add in the results we’re seeing from the two vaccines that have reported interim data so far, and I think that the prospects for lasting immunity from vaccination are also very good. Remember, the early vaccine data suggested antibody responses at least as strong as those found in naturally infected cases.

How effective are these vaccines? Will they provide total protection or not?
... the results we have so far indicate that these vaccines will indeed provide strong protection in the great majority of patients. The number of asymptomatic cases among the vaccinated population will be a harder number to pin down, but I believe that we should be in good enough shape there as well, based on antibody levels in the primate studies and what we’re seeing in humans.

What about coronavirus mutations? Will the virus move out from under the vaccine’s targeting?
...the coronavirus can’t undergo the wholesale changes that we see with the influenza viruses. And the mutations we’re seeing so far appear to still be under the umbrella of the antibody protection we’ll be raising with vaccination, which argues that it’s difficult to escape it.

What about efficacy in different groups of people? Where will the vaccines work the best, and where might there be gaps?
...too soon to tell, but our first look at efficacy in older patients is very good indeed, and that’s the most significant high-risk patient subgroup taken care of right off the top.

How safe are these vaccines? What do we know about side effects?
...immediate safety looks good so far. Rare side effects and long-term ones are still possible, but based on what we’ve seen with other vaccines, they do not look to be anywhere at all significant compared to the pandemic we have in front of us.

OK, what about the rollout? Who’s getting these things first? When does everyone else get a chance to line up?
Harder questions to answer... the very first people to get these new vaccines will almost surely be health care workers, and starting some time on in December. The rollout after that has too many variables to usefully predict, but it’s going to be the biggest thing of its type ever attempted, in people-per-unit-time. And yes, I think it’s going to work, and not a minute too soon.
 

sglowrider

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Tiny Red Dot
Oxford vaccine shows 'encouraging' immune response in older adults

The Oxford coronavirus vaccine shows a strong immune response in adults in their 60s and 70s, raising hopes that it can protect age groups most at risk from the virus.

Researchers say the Lancet phase two findings, based on 560 healthy adult volunteers, are "encouraging".
They are also testing whether the vaccine stops people developing Covid-19 in larger, phase three trials.
Early results from this crucial stage are expected in the coming weeks.

The challenge with developing a Covid vaccine is to trigger the body to fight back against the virus no matter how old someone is.

Older people's weaker immune systems mean vaccines do not tend to function as well as they do in younger people.

These trial results from the University of Oxford, peer-reviewed in the Lancet, suggest that may not be a problem.

They show that older adults aged 56-69 and over 70 had a similar immune response to younger adults aged 18-55.

'Protect most vulnerable'

Dr Maheshi Ramasamy, an investigator at the Oxford Vaccine Group, said: "We were pleased to see that our vaccine was not only well tolerated in older adults, but also stimulated similar immune responses to those seen in younger volunteers.
"The next step will be to see if this translates into protection from the disease itself."

Two weeks after the second dose, more than 99% of participants had neutralising antibody responses. These included people of all ages.
The T-cell response - another measure of how well the immune system responds - peaked two weeks after the first dose of the vaccine, regardless of age.
"The robust antibody and T-cell responses seen in older people in our study are encouraging," Dr Ramasamy said.
"The populations at greatest risk of serious Covid-19 disease include people with existing health conditions and older adults.
"We hope that this means our vaccine will help to protect some of the most vulnerable people in society, but further research will be needed before we can be sure."

_115550917_covid19_how_vaccines_work_v3_640_2x-nc.png


Older adults were also less likely to experience side-effects, which were usually mild.

And there were no serious safety issues relating to the vaccine, called ChAdOx1 nCov-2019.
 

iuwclurker

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I’m anything but an anti-vaxxer but what the good doctor said doesn’t make sense. “If we don’t get 70%, we’ll never get this pandemic under control.” The illogic is how infectious covid19 is. Suppose only 50% take the vaccine. The needed remaining 20% will rapidly be made up of natural transmission. We’re already close to 10% of the population at least.
 
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outside shooter

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The vaccination rate will drastically affect the time it takes to get the pandemic under control.

With no vaccine, it will eventially go away, but that could take years. With 70% compliance, it could go away by next summer. With 50% compliance, you can expect it to linger at least through next winter (2021-2022).

At some point it just boils down to simple math and the R-naught. How many people are infected by one infected person. When that value becomes less than 1, you are on the path to eradication.

When the pool of possible secondary infections dwindles rapidly, we can all have a party to celebrate this thing being over. That comes much much sooner with an eradication of the anti-vaccine mindset, which has been a bizarre alliance of holistic all-natural Lola-granola left-wing soccer Moms and gun-toting anti-government right-wing conspiracy nuts, complimented more recently by left wingers distrusting the apparent political influences over FDA oversight. We can't do a whole lot about the first two groups, but the 3rd one we can at least reason with.
 
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iuwclurker

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At some point it just boils down to simple math and the R-naught. How many people are infected by one infected person. When that value becomes less than 1, you are on the path to eradication.
Shit. That explains why blacks are more vulnerable, being 3/5 of a person.

dws
 

HillzHoozier

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Oxford vaccine shows 'encouraging' immune response in older adults

The Oxford coronavirus vaccine shows a strong immune response in adults in their 60s and 70s, raising hopes that it can protect age groups most at risk from the virus.

Researchers say the Lancet phase two findings, based on 560 healthy adult volunteers, are "encouraging".
They are also testing whether the vaccine stops people developing Covid-19 in larger, phase three trials.
Early results from this crucial stage are expected in the coming weeks.

The challenge with developing a Covid vaccine is to trigger the body to fight back against the virus no matter how old someone is.

Older people's weaker immune systems mean vaccines do not tend to function as well as they do in younger people.

These trial results from the University of Oxford, peer-reviewed in the Lancet, suggest that may not be a problem.

They show that older adults aged 56-69 and over 70 had a similar immune response to younger adults aged 18-55.

'Protect most vulnerable'

Dr Maheshi Ramasamy, an investigator at the Oxford Vaccine Group, said: "We were pleased to see that our vaccine was not only well tolerated in older adults, but also stimulated similar immune responses to those seen in younger volunteers.
"The next step will be to see if this translates into protection from the disease itself."

Two weeks after the second dose, more than 99% of participants had neutralising antibody responses. These included people of all ages.
The T-cell response - another measure of how well the immune system responds - peaked two weeks after the first dose of the vaccine, regardless of age.
"The robust antibody and T-cell responses seen in older people in our study are encouraging," Dr Ramasamy said.
"The populations at greatest risk of serious Covid-19 disease include people with existing health conditions and older adults.
"We hope that this means our vaccine will help to protect some of the most vulnerable people in society, but further research will be needed before we can be sure."

_115550917_covid19_how_vaccines_work_v3_640_2x-nc.png


Older adults were also less likely to experience side-effects, which were usually mild.

And there were no serious safety issues relating to the vaccine, called ChAdOx1 nCov-2019.
Oxford-AZ is also $3/dose, versus roughly $50 per with Fauci's Moderna and the Pfizer one.
 

sglowrider

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COVID-19 vaccine will be priced at ₹1,000 and would be available by February for healthcare workers and elderly people, says Serum CEO Adar Poonawalla

Vaccine maker Serum Institute of India's CEO Adar Poonawalla on Thursday said the Oxford COVID-19 vaccine should be available for healthcare workers and elderly people by around February 2021 and by April for the general public, and will be priced at a maximum of Rs 1,000 for two necessary doses for the public, depending on the final trial results and regulatory approvals. Probably by 2024, every Indian will get vaccinated, he said at the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit (HTLS), 2020.

"It will probably take two or three years for every Indian to get inoculated, not just because of the supply constraints but because you need the budget, the vaccine, logistics, infrastructure and then, people should be willing to take the vaccine. So these are the factors that lead up to being able to vaccinate 80-90 per cent of the population.

"It will be 2024 for everybody, if willing to take a two-dose vaccine, to be vaccinated," Poonawalla said.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

R1000 = US$13.50 for the two doses.
 

bawlmer

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Pfizer filing today with FDA for emergency use authorization. One side effect of the surge is the trials are meeting their infection endpoints sooner than expected. Process is expected to take a couple weeks.
 
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COVID-19 vaccine will be priced at ₹1,000 and would be available by February for healthcare workers and elderly people, says Serum CEO Adar Poonawalla

Vaccine maker Serum Institute of India's CEO Adar Poonawalla on Thursday said the Oxford COVID-19 vaccine should be available for healthcare workers and elderly people by around February 2021 and by April for the general public, and will be priced at a maximum of Rs 1,000 for two necessary doses for the public, depending on the final trial results and regulatory approvals. Probably by 2024, every Indian will get vaccinated, he said at the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit (HTLS), 2020.

"It will probably take two or three years for every Indian to get inoculated, not just because of the supply constraints but because you need the budget, the vaccine, logistics, infrastructure and then, people should be willing to take the vaccine. So these are the factors that lead up to being able to vaccinate 80-90 per cent of the population.

"It will be 2024 for everybody, if willing to take a two-dose vaccine, to be vaccinated," Poonawalla said.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

R1000 = US$13.50 for the two doses.
By the time it gets to us the decimal point will probably have traveled two places to the right.
 
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