Fouling up 0-3 The stats

[Courtsensetwo]

Still working through this and my head hurts as I am not a stats guy.

But

The concept fascinates me and I try to do the math at the end of dozens of games a year.

Some will enjoy, and some will pass out.

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-guide-to-fouling-when-leading-or-tied/

 

[ufo33]

Data Driven Analytics

 

[GeddyHoosier]

I wonder how Matt Painter feels about fouling up 3.

Still can’t believe the Diakite sequence.

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Still can’t believe the Diakite sequence.

Might be my all-time favorite Purdue fail.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

I wonder how Matt Painter feels about fouling up 3.

Still can’t believe the Diakite sequence.

Ehh...they got into that game on a bad call and out on a bad decision. All comes out in the wash.

 

[Wildmanroom]

If not familiar with the “Fenlon Rule” (up 3, under 7) read below. Fenlon was Brad Steven’s coach at DePauw and is widely acknowledged as a pioneer in analyzing this situation.

https://c510383.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/ath/mbasket/images/up3.pdf

 

[kkott]

That is one of the most interesting questions in sports I think. I HATE the idea of giving away points, but I do think it generally makes sense and allows the leading team to keep more control. While the sample size is probably small, I'd love to know the # of times that someone has fouled and then lost the game. One possible problem is the guy getting fouled jacks up a long shot and gets 3 FTs, and then of course not getting the rebound off the foul shot. I honestly don't know that I've ever seen someone lose by fouling, while I've definitely seen teams lose by allowing the 3, so that probably answers the question right there. Still... giving away points.... hate it.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

That is one of the most interesting questions in sports I think. I HATE the idea of giving away points, but I do think it generally makes sense and allows the leading team to keep more control. While the sample size is probably small, I'd love to know the # of times that someone has fouled and then lost the game. One possible problem is the guy getting fouled jacks up a long shot and gets 3 FTs, and then of course not getting the rebound off the foul shot. I honestly don't know that I've ever seen someone lose by fouling, while I've definitely seen teams lose by allowing the 3, so that probably answers the question right there. Still... giving away points.... hate it.

The 3Pt shooter getting fouled has been more common as shooters are taught to kick the leg out and create contact. To his credit that is what Edwards did in the S16 game and got rewarded. I think officials will crack down on that move which evens the floor.

I tended to be a purist and play defense.

 

[Cavanagh]

I think you will see smart teams that have 6 or fewer fouls going into half or the end of the game start utilizing them more. Fouling the worst FT shooter on the court on purpose whether behind or ahead. College players are shitty FT shooters to begin with, they are also not as stable mentally as a a pro. By fouling the worst shooter on purpose I would bet the farm it works out in your favor in the long wrong.

Getting the ball with out expanding any energy on defense without them scoring is not only great for the scoreboard, it is a momentum killer for the other team.

you will see a school in the next few years be the catalyst for this and that coach will be called a genius. Just remember you heard it here first boys.

 

[fkfootball]

Purdue wasn’t really that good, they were just carried by Carsen Edwards. Painter has proven over time that he’s hit his ceiling.

 

[82hoosier]

I wonder how Matt Painter feels about fouling up 3.

Still can’t believe the Diakite sequence.

Don't forget the NCAA tournament game against Duke in 2002. Dane Fife fouled Jay Williams who hits a three point shot with less than five seconds left and Indiana up four. First he was bailed out by the announcers who called the foul on Newton and then bailed out by Jay Williams who missed the free-throw. Hoosiers win 74-73 after being down by 17 points in the second half

 

[GeddyHoosier]

Don't forget the NCAA tournament game against Duke in 2002. Dane Fife fouled Jay Williams who hits a three point shot with less than five seconds left and Indiana up four. First he was bailed out by the announcers who called the foul on Newton and then bailed out by Jay Williams who missed the free-throw. Hoosiers win 74-73 after being down by 17 points in the second half

Oh I’ll never forget that game!