about this time – that IU’s offense would fall off - in terms of yardage - from the year before.
And just for fun – & because I don’t like vague internet sports predictions – I even assigned some numbers to it:
It would fall to somewhere between 75% (worse-case scenario, i.e. - key injuries, etc.) to 90% of 2013’s yardage (thought improved “D” might help regarding points scored).
I had three main reasons for predicting this:
1. Loss of 3 of 5 starting WRs & starting TE from the year before (experience matters).
2. Loss of successful OC from the previous 2 years.
3. Loss of Tre at QB – leaving us thin there & with the only experienced QB a drop-back guy in an “option-look” scheme.
Man! The response on these boards were immediate & surprisingly HOSTILE! (You’d have thought I went onto a Catholic message board & said that the Pope was secretly Lutheran or something…!)
They ranged from the emotional (including from some who should have known better):
“What? 75%?!? [seizing upon my very worst-case as tho it were my entire argument] No WAY!! If anything, IU’s offense will INCREASE this year!!”
..to the (seemingly) well-reasoned:
“Cody, here are my responses to each of your points:
1. Yes, it is true that we lost some experienced WRs, but we DO have experienced speed-guys in Wynn & Stoner returning, and man, those new guys coming in - (4 star) Booth, Cobbs, Harris & Keel - all look GREAT on tape!
2. Hey – our QB coach has been here a while, obviously knows the plays, and will slide seamlessly into OC position.
3. Do they REALLY need someone who can run the option-look at QB? I mean I watch the Indy Colts & the Denver Broncos with P. Manning every week & they play a “spread” (kind of) and THEIR QBs don’t run & THEY seem successful…!?!!”
Well, the results are in…..drumroll, please……and IU came in at 4860 total offensive yards in 2014 versus 6102 in 2013…..or, in other words:
79.6% of the previous year’s yardage…. Or, near the lower end of my predicted range.
Now, you’re thinking: “But Cody, our superstar QB Nate went down !”
My answer to that is:
A. I – as most of us – KNEW that having one experienced QB was a vulnerablility, and was taken into account in my prediction range.
B. Even BEFORE NS went down, our passing/O was weak, (QB ratings: ISU – 29, BG -85, MO – 44, MD – 35, N. Tex – 87, Iowa 10.8…..above 100 considered very good)
C. True – I didn’t expect the “Hoosier Curse” of losing TWO QBs in one game (!) [who else but IU would this happen to?] nor did I think that our stud RB TC would breakout to the extent he did, but I am still comfortable with my prediction, which was basically correct….
This year, of course, CKW will REALLY have his work cut out for him, with ALL FOUR starting DBs gone (never heard of that before!), with only 349 or our 3163 rushing yards returning (not including Covington, but including our leading returning rusher Zander D’s 133), and with our leading returning WR having caught – um – 8 passes….for the entire year, that is….(Harris had 18, but is injured).
OK, so yes, IU has transfers coming in such as Jordan Howard with 1600 yards rushing last year against the fightin’ Conf USA (Old Dominion, Rice, North Texas, etc. - but is that the same as against Penn St., Michigan, Mich St.. ?) along with Hawkins at RB, who FLA liked but has never played, and has some young talent at DB, but again: EXPERIENCE (in B1G game competiton) COUNTS…!!!
I DO have faith in our defensive coaches tho, which will mitigate the defensive losses somewhat (more on that later), but overall is still a tough row to hoe this year.
Bottom line is, I still have hopes that IU can pull out a 6-6 season & reach a Bowl (which will help recruiting), but it will take MAJOR adjustments for individual games on offense (a la Mizzou last year), and it will be a struggle.
Said what I have to say, so bash away! Won’t really be checking for responses to this, cause I’ve said what I have to say…..can only add: GO HOOSIERS (despite all)…!!!
And just for fun – & because I don’t like vague internet sports predictions – I even assigned some numbers to it:
It would fall to somewhere between 75% (worse-case scenario, i.e. - key injuries, etc.) to 90% of 2013’s yardage (thought improved “D” might help regarding points scored).
I had three main reasons for predicting this:
1. Loss of 3 of 5 starting WRs & starting TE from the year before (experience matters).
2. Loss of successful OC from the previous 2 years.
3. Loss of Tre at QB – leaving us thin there & with the only experienced QB a drop-back guy in an “option-look” scheme.
Man! The response on these boards were immediate & surprisingly HOSTILE! (You’d have thought I went onto a Catholic message board & said that the Pope was secretly Lutheran or something…!)
They ranged from the emotional (including from some who should have known better):
“What? 75%?!? [seizing upon my very worst-case as tho it were my entire argument] No WAY!! If anything, IU’s offense will INCREASE this year!!”
..to the (seemingly) well-reasoned:
“Cody, here are my responses to each of your points:
1. Yes, it is true that we lost some experienced WRs, but we DO have experienced speed-guys in Wynn & Stoner returning, and man, those new guys coming in - (4 star) Booth, Cobbs, Harris & Keel - all look GREAT on tape!
2. Hey – our QB coach has been here a while, obviously knows the plays, and will slide seamlessly into OC position.
3. Do they REALLY need someone who can run the option-look at QB? I mean I watch the Indy Colts & the Denver Broncos with P. Manning every week & they play a “spread” (kind of) and THEIR QBs don’t run & THEY seem successful…!?!!”
Well, the results are in…..drumroll, please……and IU came in at 4860 total offensive yards in 2014 versus 6102 in 2013…..or, in other words:
79.6% of the previous year’s yardage…. Or, near the lower end of my predicted range.
Now, you’re thinking: “But Cody, our superstar QB Nate went down !”
My answer to that is:
A. I – as most of us – KNEW that having one experienced QB was a vulnerablility, and was taken into account in my prediction range.
B. Even BEFORE NS went down, our passing/O was weak, (QB ratings: ISU – 29, BG -85, MO – 44, MD – 35, N. Tex – 87, Iowa 10.8…..above 100 considered very good)
C. True – I didn’t expect the “Hoosier Curse” of losing TWO QBs in one game (!) [who else but IU would this happen to?] nor did I think that our stud RB TC would breakout to the extent he did, but I am still comfortable with my prediction, which was basically correct….
This year, of course, CKW will REALLY have his work cut out for him, with ALL FOUR starting DBs gone (never heard of that before!), with only 349 or our 3163 rushing yards returning (not including Covington, but including our leading returning rusher Zander D’s 133), and with our leading returning WR having caught – um – 8 passes….for the entire year, that is….(Harris had 18, but is injured).
OK, so yes, IU has transfers coming in such as Jordan Howard with 1600 yards rushing last year against the fightin’ Conf USA (Old Dominion, Rice, North Texas, etc. - but is that the same as against Penn St., Michigan, Mich St.. ?) along with Hawkins at RB, who FLA liked but has never played, and has some young talent at DB, but again: EXPERIENCE (in B1G game competiton) COUNTS…!!!
I DO have faith in our defensive coaches tho, which will mitigate the defensive losses somewhat (more on that later), but overall is still a tough row to hoe this year.
Bottom line is, I still have hopes that IU can pull out a 6-6 season & reach a Bowl (which will help recruiting), but it will take MAJOR adjustments for individual games on offense (a la Mizzou last year), and it will be a struggle.
Said what I have to say, so bash away! Won’t really be checking for responses to this, cause I’ve said what I have to say…..can only add: GO HOOSIERS (despite all)…!!!
