IU won yards per play - a primitive measure of explosiveness - 6.1 to 4.9 last night (this is a nice gap).
IU also was much more efficient than FIU as I explained in the success rate breakdown (link).
It's pretty tough to play a close game when you win both explosiveness and efficiency battles - that usually means you converted more big plays than your opponent, and moved the chains better than them - but IU trailed FIU 13-12 going into the fourth quarter.
How? They left points on the board.
By my count, IU had eight drives where they snapped a first down inside the FIU 40.
Six of those were before the fourth quarter, and IU only had THREE points to show at that stage for those six drives.
The final two of those drives - both in the fourth quarter - resulted in touchdowns and helped IU put the game away.
Here are the results from the eight drives:
IU was averaging 0.5 points per trip inside the 40 until that fourth quarter.
Accounting for the last two touchdowns, they scored 18 points in eight trips inside the 40 on the night - an average of 2.3 points per trip.
For comparison, FIU only earned three drives inside the IU 40. Those results:
That's a recipe for an upset, man.
It's important to note there was a lot to be encouraged about last night - this isn't meant to be a "bring the hammer down on IU" post. The defensive performance is certainly encouraging. The ground game was encouraging. Lagow, considering his play in his very first game in an IU uniform, that's encouraging.
But we have to acknowledge why the game was close going into the fourth quarter despite all those things. And finishing drives was the reason why.
It might be just a one game trend. They are absolutely capable (maybe even likely?) to go out and perform great inside the 40 next week.
For context, teams who finish a single game with between 1 to 2 points per trip inside the 40 only win that game 4.9 percent of the time, according to data from Bill Connelly at SB Nation. IU was dangerously close to that threshold last night, but it's easy to blow that off thanks to multiple defensive touchdowns + a safety showing on the final scoreboard.
Can't count on 16 points from the defense every game. IU will have to do better at finishing drives going forward. I'm sure they know it, and it won't surprise me if/when we see them do it.
IU also was much more efficient than FIU as I explained in the success rate breakdown (link).
It's pretty tough to play a close game when you win both explosiveness and efficiency battles - that usually means you converted more big plays than your opponent, and moved the chains better than them - but IU trailed FIU 13-12 going into the fourth quarter.
How? They left points on the board.
By my count, IU had eight drives where they snapped a first down inside the FIU 40.
Six of those were before the fourth quarter, and IU only had THREE points to show at that stage for those six drives.
The final two of those drives - both in the fourth quarter - resulted in touchdowns and helped IU put the game away.
Here are the results from the eight drives:
- Drive 1 - Oakes, 22-yard field goal - 3 points
- Drive 2 - Oakes, 26-yard field goal MISSED - 0 points
- Drive 3 - Punt from FIU 35 to FIU 15 - 0 points
- Drive 4 - Punt from FIU 47 to FIU 20 - 0 points
- Drive 5 - Redding fumble recovered by FIU at FIU 37 - 0 points
- Drive 6 - FGA try on 4th down ends with Mitchell Paige throwing it out of bounds - 0 points
- (4Q) Drive 7 - Touchdown + 2 pt conversion - 8 points
- (4Q) Drive 8 - Touchdown + XP - 7 points
IU was averaging 0.5 points per trip inside the 40 until that fourth quarter.
Accounting for the last two touchdowns, they scored 18 points in eight trips inside the 40 on the night - an average of 2.3 points per trip.
For comparison, FIU only earned three drives inside the IU 40. Those results:
- Drive 1 - 24-yard field goal - 3 points
- Drive 2 - Touchdown - 7 points
- Drive 3 - 29-yard field goal - 3 points
That's a recipe for an upset, man.
It's important to note there was a lot to be encouraged about last night - this isn't meant to be a "bring the hammer down on IU" post. The defensive performance is certainly encouraging. The ground game was encouraging. Lagow, considering his play in his very first game in an IU uniform, that's encouraging.
But we have to acknowledge why the game was close going into the fourth quarter despite all those things. And finishing drives was the reason why.
It might be just a one game trend. They are absolutely capable (maybe even likely?) to go out and perform great inside the 40 next week.
For context, teams who finish a single game with between 1 to 2 points per trip inside the 40 only win that game 4.9 percent of the time, according to data from Bill Connelly at SB Nation. IU was dangerously close to that threshold last night, but it's easy to blow that off thanks to multiple defensive touchdowns + a safety showing on the final scoreboard.
Can't count on 16 points from the defense every game. IU will have to do better at finishing drives going forward. I'm sure they know it, and it won't surprise me if/when we see them do it.
