"Expert" walks his predictions back.

Discussion in 'The Water Cooler' started by Ladoga, Mar 26, 2020.

  1. Ladoga

    Ladoga All-Big Ten
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  2. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Sophomore
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  3. IUclover

    IUclover Freshman
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    What do the other experts say? I feel like I don't need to say this but orange thumb (Trump) and white thumb (Pence) are not experts.
     
  4. thezinfan1

    thezinfan1 Benchwarmer
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    His initial report clearly stated that it was worse case scenario, zero mitigation. Read the report. He didn't retract anything. It's making the case for mitigation/supression. What is so hard to understand

    In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
     
  5. Cortez88

    Cortez88 Junior
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    I had a suspicion that this would be the next Trumper move. If social distancing and stay and home orders work and flatten the curve, the Trumpers will say that the virus really wasn’t a big deal and that the media blew I’d out of proportion.
     
  6. hoosboot

    hoosboot Hall of Famer
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    Yeah...this is the newest "hot take" circulating conservative media courtesy of the Daily Wire/Federalist silliness chamber that calls people who actually know what they are talking about "experts" instead of experts. Meanwhile, expert (not "expert") Dr. Fauci is on Instagram Live with Steph Curry getting word out that government officials, both on a local and national scale, were not overreacting to the virus.
     
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  7. Cortez88

    Cortez88 Junior
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    Italy is happening. Spain is happening. NY is happening. Do the far right extremists simply deny reality? I’m truly baffled by this.
     
  8. mashnut

    mashnut Benchwarmer
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    Yes. They do.
     
  9. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    You can burn an ant to death with plain old sunlight if you focus it just right with a magnifying glass.
     
  10. i'vegotwinners

    i'vegotwinners All-American
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    it's a migrating crisis, it's not going to peak everywhere at once.

    in X wks NY will hopefully be on the downhill side of this, but other areas of the country will just be coming into where NY is now.
     
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  11. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Sophomore
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    I largely agree, but i presumed the point of shutting the majority of the nation down was to thwart that migration. what's more as cuomo related ny is uniquely vulnerable to this given their concentration of people from all over the world. i would presume more homogeneous cities/states will see far less severity.
     
  12. i'vegotwinners

    i'vegotwinners All-American
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    12 i'vegotwinners, Mar 26, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
  13. thezinfan1

    thezinfan1 Benchwarmer
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    Its never been about stopping the virus, which is pretty much impossible until natural immunity and/or vaccine. We are trying to SLOW the spread to prevent overloading the healthcare system in any given area.
     
  14. twenty02

    twenty02 Hall of Famer
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    You can count always count on Ladoga to spread propaganda.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. hoosboot

    hoosboot Hall of Famer
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    IronGreenBossierLagodaWorks? Never!
     
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  16. Harry Hondo

    Harry Hondo Senior
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    February 26th: 56 cases. Trump: “we’re going down” (in the number of cases)

    (one month later)

    March 26: 80,200 cases

    At the very least, Trump has been reckless with his statements concerning this virus, regardless of the severity of COVID 19. I think that’s the point in this whole matter. He’s essentially been more of a hindrance than a help in dealing with this. I’d hate to see where we’d be if this truly was a pandemic of apocalyptic proportions.
     
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  17. Ladoga

    Ladoga All-Big Ten
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    I posted an article written by another person. I didn't write it and gave no opinion on it. Your hatred is eating you up and you seem not to know it or to know why. Its a pity. Best Wishes.
     
  18. hoosboot

    hoosboot Hall of Famer
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    Don't you mean you "posted" an article "written" by another "person" and gave no "opinion" on it? :)
     
  19. Circlejoe

    Circlejoe All-Big Ten
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    Ladoga is good entertainment value. We need the laugh in times like this.
     
  20. CO. Hoosier

    CO. Hoosier Hall of Famer
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    Dr. Birx also said observed data is not as severe as the models predicted.
     
  21. cosmickid

    cosmickid All-American
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    Yeah I know when I am in need of RATIONAL medical advice the Federalist is my first choice...

    "Conservative website The Federalist has positioned itself in the coronavirus era as the right’s leading voice of COVID-19 skepticism, with its writers seemingly on a reckless campaign across the internet and television to downplay the pandemic’s potential impact and lethality.

    The right-wing outlet’s coronavirus coverage hit an astonishing low on Wednesday when Twitter temporarily locked The Federalist’s account after it posted an article by a self-described dermatologist proposing that people deliberately infect themselves with the virus.

    In his article, titled “How Medical ‘Chickenpox Parties’ Could Turn The Tide Of The Wuhan Virus,” Douglas Perednia made a bizarre push for getting voluntarily infected with the disease at gatherings in an attempt to develop immunity—a scheme he claimed would “turn the tide” against the pandemic."



    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-fansite-federalist-hits-low-232017913.html

    I was going to start a thread yesterday on this alarming lack of social responsibility from the Federalist. Instead, YOU start a thread using a Federalist link as if they are some sort of legitimate source making a valid statement. Really can NOT make this shit up as the Trumplings circle the wagons...
     
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  22. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Sophomore
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    You're a better man than I. I set out with the best of intentions to utilize this time to "get healthy" but I've done a lousy job. Every grocery store run for me has looked like a scene out of leaving las vegas. as for sleeping, try melatonin if you haven't already. i've found it works way better and doesn't leave me feeling groggy like advil pm. that exercise should help you sleep in time too. i blew my knee out last year and have been debating whether at my age it's worth surgery and rehab to be able to play in my old man league. i can walk, jog, go about my activities of daily living pain free, but couldn't endure contact. i haven't been able to transition not playing to a regular jogging/walking routine. definitely need to.

    anyway, add melatonin to that positive lifestyle you've adopted. only good will follow....
     
  23. Bulk VanderHuge

    Bulk VanderHuge All-Big Ten
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    Is "expert" anything like...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  24. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    The US has now overtaken China in terms of more cases than anyone in the world.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    2nd of March, 2020 there were only 100 cases.
    As of today, there are 83,672. (China has 81,825)

    The problem is so under-reported.

    Currently, about 20-22% of the all-new cases in Singapore has been originated by either Americans coming back to Singapore, visiting or Singaporeans who just came back from the States. Every one of them undetected by the thermal scanners at the airport. And all this is despite the massive drop off in travel globally.
     
    24 sglowrider, Mar 26, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
  25. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Sophomore
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    55% of our cases are coming out of nyc.
     
  26. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    As all my doctor/frontline friends always say: it only takes one.

    The epicentre was China then Italy and now the US. It only takes one unintentional, infected New Yorker to leave the state and bob's your uncle.

    UK's ground zero was some guy who went skiing in Austria in January and brought it home. One of his friends there then went home to the States, sick.
     
  27. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Sophomore
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    Italy's was the champion's league match with atalanta.
     
  28. Spartans9312

    Spartans9312 Freshman
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    It's the damn Americans fault.
     
  29. sglowrider

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    Don't be overly sensitive.

    These are the facts. I am two months ahead of your curve. We are facing a different scenario now than from the first Wave; what you are facing now. Everyone seems to think that when it peaks in 2-3 weeks time, the worst is past them. It will not.

    There will be multiple waves because unless you can stop a 100% from spreading or infecting especially with the under/uninsureds, it won't go away until a vaccine is found.

    Case in point:
    Brits face 'six-month coronavirus lockdown' measures to avoid second wave of cases
    Dr Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer, said the restrictions could remain in force until September, adding that the early signs from the lockdown were promising

    Dr Harries told Radio 4's Women's Hour: "We don't want to lift those measures and find that we have a sudden upsurge and our efforts will have been wasted.

    "Overall we are looking at a scenario of over a six-month period but not necessarily with a lockdown of this level going on throughout that time.

    "We are likely able to raise some of the measures as we go forward and keep in a very controlled pattern."
     
    29 sglowrider, Mar 26, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
  30. Spartans9312

    Spartans9312 Freshman
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    Nobody really knows what the numbers are with regards to China.
    You are correct in the fact that this isn't going away.
     
  31. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    Why are you not 2 months closer to a working treatment or vaccine? Probably because a population hiding in their basements has a less urgent need for treatment.
     
  32. sglowrider

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    Everyone keeps saying they cant trust the numbers out of China? I know its definitely got better -- I am in daily contact with people there. The WHO is there working with them. No reason at this point to lie and because it doesn't matter anymore.
    The fact is that the US numbers are actually worse than reported due to the untested, untraced and uncontained.
     
  33. thezinfan1

    thezinfan1 Benchwarmer
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    Not anymore.
     
  34. hoosboot

    hoosboot Hall of Famer
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    [​IMG]
     
  35. Ladoga

    Ladoga All-Big Ten
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    Observed data is a fraction of Fergusson's modelled outcomes. But Circle Joe is a child of hatred. He's always rready to say something nasty about information which doesn't fit his hate.
     
  36. Ladoga

    Ladoga All-Big Ten
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    Pitiful post. The researcher who's article is reported on in the Federalist is the same British guy who put out the prediction, from his model, that predicted massive death in the UK and the US. The article reports that he has backtracked and the numbers from actual observed date - not modeling - is a fraction of model prediction/

    So, hate the Federalist, but the article contains the British researcher's own retrenchment from his early predictions - are you disappointed that his most dire predictions aren't anywhere close to coming to fruition? Pitiful.

    Dr. Blix relates those facts on air this evening. You must be beside yourself with disappointment. Pitiful
     
  37. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    This Circle Joe?

    [​IMG]
     
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  38. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Singapore scientists plan to start testing COVID-19 vaccine this year

    There is a working treatment already. After nearly 4 months, only two fatalities and that was from last Saturday.
     
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  39. hoosboot

    hoosboot Hall of Famer
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    [​IMG]
     
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  40. sglowrider

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    Developing affordable, accurate test kits for COVID-19 one of the biggest challenge this outbreak


    Going forward -- if the incubation period is two weeks, testing once is just silly. Probably need to be tested like twice a month or twice every six weeks to have some semblance of control.

    But if testing costs like several hundred bucks as in the case in Europe, how sustainable will this be?

    How will they keep a lid on this even after the 1st Peak?
     

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