Dow down 830 points
- Thread starter twenty02
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The S&P is still up YTD. If the year ends positive it will mark the 10th straight year (unusual) the S&P has had a gain. The S&P gained each of Obama’s 8 years and, if it remains positive, both of Trumps years. I’m not a market timer but 10 years is quite a streak as the market historically declines roughly one out of four years (ie. I have no idea if we will have an annual decline this year but it would not be a total shocker).
Why would the instability (if that's what we want to call it), end then?
I don't think we should govern based on short-term movement in the stock market, but shouldn't we seek stability as a general matter? Doesn't Trump create unnecessary and unproductive instability?
Markets will have some clarity for the next two years re:Congress. I don't think the market pays any attention to Trump's daily shenanigans.
You mean that 10% tax decrease Trump announced for the middle class isn’t going to work?
He means if the Dems take control, there could be changes to existing fiscal policies.
I wondered the same thing. Right now, with the DOW being down 500), the S&P is still barely up ( .72%) and an overall bond ETF (BND) is down 4.3%. Must have a heavy dose of international, especially emerging.
But they do pay attention to stuff like this:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/dow...-at-the-open-amid-rising-global-tensions.html
Caterpillar dropped more than 9 percent following the release of its results. The company said its manufacturing costs rose due to higher material and freight costs. Material costs were driven by higher steel prices and tariffs. This drop adds to Caterpillar's steep monthly losses. Through Monday's close, the stock is down 15.6 percent for the month.
The U.S. and China have implemented tariffs on billions of dollars worth of their goods this year, increasing costs for companies and raising fears that tighter global trade conditions could slow down the global economy. Negotiations between the two countries have stalled recently, increasing fears that this spat will be prolonged.
"We just look like we're getting further away from a deal with China," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR. "The ramifications of a prolonged trade ware are really seeping into investors' minds right now."
The U.S. and China have implemented tariffs on billions of dollars worth of their goods this year, increasing costs for companies and raising fears that tighter global trade conditions could slow down the global economy. Negotiations between the two countries have stalled recently, increasing fears that this spat will be prolonged.
"We just look like we're getting further away from a deal with China," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR. "The ramifications of a prolonged trade ware are really seeping into investors' minds right now."
Thanks to both of you for raising these questions. I have and email into my guy now to get additional information.
You sure those emails aren't offering Mega Millions stocks? I invested in that stock about 5 times this year, lost everything each time. I'm growing suspicious it is a scam.
Nothing to be growing about. They are scams.
Interestingly, my mail box is filled with ads about some conference on marijuana stocks, with John Boner, our ex-speaker of the house, as the keynote speaker!
Link
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I feel badly for everyone else, but I'm loving this drop. All of my very modest savings is currently in crypto currency. By the time I'm making some real money and have significant money to invest in the stock market, I hope we've hit peak bottom
As for the short term, even my grandma is willing to take a drop in her portfolio if it helps defeat Trump.
As for the short term, even my grandma is willing to take a drop in her portfolio if it helps defeat Trump.
I feel badly for everyone else, but I'm loving this drop. All of my very modest savings is currently in crypto currency. By the time I'm making some real money and have significant money to invest in the stock market, I hope we've hit peak bottom
As for the short term, even my grandma is willing to take a drop in her portfolio if it helps defeat Trump.
So to confirm, you are happy that ETH has gone from $800 to $200, BTC has gone from nearly $10K to $6500 in the last 6 months?
Not happy about it, but I'm only down around 30% since ETH hit the high of $1,400. Have been trading in and out of various cryptos. I do think we will move up again at some point. Rebalancing my portfolio now to take advantage of the next boom. Yea, everything could go to 0.
Have you thought about retiring in another country? Dunno if you have extended family that keeps you anchored here, but you can do fairly well abroad living off of social security.
LOL. Does Canada count? Wife is from there and all her kids & grandkids are there. (I never had any children.)
I think the cost of the divorce would offset the savings.Sure
I meant somewhere like Panama, Mexico, or Malaysia though
Lol. I've suggested this to my parents as well and that went over like rainbows.
I am eager to see how it performs during a downturn. It could act like gold or cash or it could act like a highly speculative asset.
I read recently that there is no correlation between the stock market and the crypto markets. However, I think the recent crypto decline has essentially proved that BTC is without a doubt not viewed as gold or a stable asset. BTC has been holding the $6,000 level for awhile btw. Should that fall, look out below for all cryptos. If the stock market took a serious nosedive I believe the same would occur in cryptos as they are clearly viewed as speculative assets. Stock market investors with crypto assets would sell the cryptos.
My gut is that a large portion of the boom fuel was money exiting China/money laundering.
Ignoring that, 99% of cryptos are junk and will end up completely worthless.
Off topic, but I'll be replying to you in the other thread after lunch with a long post. Would appreciate any career advice you might have.
Yep. My primary International ETF is VXUS (Vanaguards International Index). VXUS had a good 2016 and 2017 but after today is down 13% YTD. It’s interesting how often highly paid “experts” are wrong. At the beginning of the year they said the best values were in International equities but instead ,YTD, International has severely undeperfomed the US S&P 500.
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He was right. The best values were and would've been International equities. Unfortunately, your "expert" did not expect Trump would be so stupid. Not many did, and that includes yours truly.
Fortunately, I unloaded much of the Internationals after our president started the tarif war.
They did not anticipate the USD would strengthen this much, which if you think about it, doesn't make terrible sense since the Fed is years ahead of the ECB, BoJ and other developed central banks regarding its tightening timeline.
Yep, just the fact that we are slowly raising rates while the German 10 year, as an example, only yields 0.4% backs that up.
That's only part of the issue. The broader problem for emerging markets is they have an implicit (sometimes explicit) peg to the USD. If the USD appreciates, it forces them to tighten (e.g. Indonesia and Philippines) more aggressively than they otherwise would, choking off economic growth.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/currencies-bank-indonesia-hikes-interest-rates-to-defend-rupiah.html
Unfortunately, due to my Emerging Market ETF, I am well aware of that
.Fortunately a small position.
Although some want to turn back the clock to the 1920’s it is now truly a global economy and what happens in one region definitely impacts others,
I've noticed that Trump is not bragging about stock market anymore. Is it because he is too busy campaigning for "Lyin Ted?"
It’s really a simple formula.
HE, and only HIM, is responsible for each and every point the market goes up and HE, and HIS policies, have absolutely nothing to do with it going down. Have you not learned that yet?
Dow erases gains for the year, tumbles more than 600 points as stocks extend October swoon
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/dow...e-open-after-tuesdays-500-point-recovery.html
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 608.01 points at 24,583.42 and erased all of its gains for 2018. The S&P 500 dropped 3.1 percent to 2,656.10 and also turned negative for the year. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.4 percent to 7,108.40— entering correction territory — as Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet all traded lower.
Yeah, but he has not blamed Hilary and/or Obama for the downturn yet. I bet it's coming, though.It’s really a simple formula.
HE, and only HIM, is responsible for each and every point the market goes up and HE, and HIS policies, have absolutely nothing to do with it going down. Have you not learned that yet?
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