Does IU recruit well in-state? Yes and no. (stats inside - very long post)

IUninethree · Oct 29, 2015

The ongoing conversation of if IU recruits the state of Indiana well got me thinking a few weeks ago about what history says. So I looked at the state of Indiana and how well IU has recruited over the last 10 cycles. This review takes in Hoeppner's last class and ends with the current freshman class. I didn't include the 2016 class since that one is not complete yet.

Specifically I looked at the Rivals rankings for in-state recruits, the top 10, 15, or 20 list from each year back to the 2006 recruiting class. 180 players were named to these lists over the past 10 years and 175 committed or signed a letter of intent to play somewhere. During that time, Rivals star rankings broke down like this...

5-star - 3
4-star - 31
3-star - 116
2-star - 30

Again, these were only the players named on the year-end list of top Indiana recruits by Rivals. There were likely others with star rankings who did not make these lists.

How Does IU Do Overall?

The answer to that question may be a surprise to some. IU is far and away the top recruiter of players named to Indiana's top recruits list. In the last 10 years, 42 players named to the lists committed to IU. Purdue is a distant second with 22 commits with Notre Dame claiming 19 players. No other school has more than 8. In total, 41 schools recruited a player named to Indiana's top recruits lists. The breakdown:

Indiana - 42
Purdue - 22
Notre Dame - 19
Cincinnati, Ball State - 8
Ohio State - 6
Louisville - 5
Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, Western Michigan - 4
Iowa, Florida, Kentucky, Michigan State - 3
Georgia, Western Kentucky, North Carolina, Stanford, Toledo, Illinois - 2
Wyoming, Mississippi State, Central Michigan, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Delaware State, Marshall, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, SMU, Auburn, BYU, UCLA, Missouri, Northwestern, Tennessee, Penn State, Virginia - 1

It's interesting that 91 recruits (52% of the total) named to the lists stayed in-state. 46 other recruits only ventured one state away. So nearly 80% of Indiana's top recruits are staying fairly close to home.

Who's Getting the State's Top Recruits?

All recruits and all recruiting years aren't created equal. There are years like 2012 when the top recruits list is packed with 4 and high-3 star guys. And there are years like 2008 when half the list is 2-star guys. Even though the star and ranking systems aren't an exact science, we fans love to see our commits with loads of stars next to their names. So I looked at who was loading up on high-star guys as well as who was picking from the top of the list vs who was shopping in the lower sections. This is where you start to see the elite programs separating from IU.

Star ranks - in my opinion, there's one, true "national" team in college football and that team happens to have an Indiana address, even though I don't really consider it an "Indiana school" (my guess is they don't either). But by proximity, they have heavy presence in state and it pays off.

5-star recruits - 3 total, all signed with Notre Dame
4-star recruits - 31 total
- Notre Dame - 7
- Indiana - 4
- Ohio State - 3
- Georgia, Purdue, Stanford, North Carolina - 2
- Auburn, Cincinnati, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, Tennessee, UCLA, Virginia Tech - 1
3-star recruits - 111 signed
- Indiana - 28
- Purdue - 17
- Notre Dame - 9
- Cincinnati - 7
- Louisville - 5
- Ball State - 4
- Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Western Michigan - 3
- Eastern Michigan, Florida, Iowa, Michigan State, Western Kentucky, Illinois - 2
- 11 schools with 1 each
2-star recruits - 30 signed
- Indiana - 10
- Ball State, Northern Illinois - 4
- Pudue - 3
- Eastern Michigan - 2
- 7 schools with 1 each

List ranking - I thought it was interesting to see where recruits were ranked in-state and in general where IU's recruiting efforts were working. Again, the elite schools traditionally grab the top guys while IU does most of its work in the middle of the rankings.

The state's top player has been claimed by guys with 5-star ratings three times and 4-star ratings seven times. It averages out to a 4.3-star rating for the top recruit. The state's top player goes to Notre Dame more often than not. Indiana's #1 prospect signed with Notre Dame four times in the last 10 years. Six other schools have gotten the state's top guy one time each - Florida, Georgia, Minnesota, Stanford, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
The 50 players ranked 1-5 on the list over the last ten years average 3.7 stars. The list includes three 5-star guys, 29 4-star guys, and 18 3-star guys. Breakdown by commitment:
- Notre Dame - 12
- Ohio State - 5
- Purdue - 4
- Indiana, Michigan - 3
- Cincinnati, Georgia, Stanford, UNC, Va Tech - 2
- 13 schools with 1 each
The 49 players ranked 6-10 who signed with schools average 2.9 stars with two 4-star guys, 39 3-star guys, and nine 2-star guys earning the ranking. Breakdown by commitment:
- Indiana - 17
- Purdue - 9
- Notre Dame - 6
- Cincinnati - 3
- East MI, Louisville, MSU - 2 each
- Eight schools with one each
The 44 guys ranked 11-15 who signed after graduation average 2.7 stars with 33 3-star guys and 12 2-star guys earning the ranking overall. Breakdown:
- Indiana - 13
- Purdue - 5
- Cincinnati, NIU - 3
- Louisville, Western MI - 2
- 16 schools with one each
A total of 32 guys ranked 16-20 signed to play after graduation. They averaged 2.7 stars with 25 3-star guys and 10 2-star guys earning the ranking. Breakdown:
- Indiana - 9
- Ball State - 7
- Purdue - 4
- 12 schools with one each

Star averages vs list averages - the last question I had was how do IU's commits stack up against the averages of other teams, star-wise. I won't go into full details of all schools, but I will hit the three big in-state schools:

Recruits ranked 1-5 - 3.7 star average
- Notre Dame - commits averaged 4.1 stars
- Indiana - commits averaged 3.7 stars
- Purdue - commits averaged 3.5 stars
Recruits ranked 6-10 - 2.9 star average
- Notre Dame - commits averaged 3 stars
- Purdue - commits averaged 2.9 stars
- Indiana - commits averaged 2.8 stars
Recruits ranked 11-15 - 2.7 star average
- Notre Dame - commits averaged 3 stars (one commit)
- Indiana - commits averaged 2.8 stars
- Purdue - commits averaged 2.6 stars
Recruits ranked 16-20 - 2.7 star average
- Purdue - commits averaged 3 stars
- Indiana - commits averaged 2.8 stars
- Ball State (for sake of comparison) - recruits averaged 2.4 stars

Flaws with this analysis

Looks purely at commitment/signing. Doesn't take into account if player ever enrolled, transferred, contributed, etc.
Doesn't take into account competition for a recruit. Who has offered a recruit?
Doesn't take into account any sort of evaluation of a recruit beyond the list. Are schools passing on higher recruits because they may not have a position need or have an out-of-state commit that fills a need? Are any recruits considered over or under rated?
Doesn't offer any sort of parameters to what is considered a good percentage for in-state recruiting. I have no measure of knowing if grabbing 25% of recruits from a state's top recruits list is good, bad, or average. Would need to likely compare to schools from states of similar population or talent pool. Also need to account for in-state competition for recruits. Indiana has four FBS schools in state, Wisconsin had one.

Takeaways
I don't think any of this is rocket science...

IU is far and away the top in-state recruiter. Considering the history and reputation of the program, I assumed we'd be a bit more neck-and-neck with Purdue. I was amazed to see how many guys off the top recruits list the Hoosiers actually get.
Elite talent passes on IU. IU wins more recruiting battles in the mid-pack. Notre Dame and Ohio State lead in grabbing the top guys and IU competes for the rest with other schools.
Cincinnati is our top out-of-state rival.

Now you have some stats to back your arguments. Have at it!

4th&short · Oct 29, 2015