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Death rate models have now doubled

zeke4ahs said:
Because we refuse to stay home. Americans are following their leader and hoping if they ignore it, the virus will just go away. Predictions of 3,000 deaths a day in June.,At this rate, we will never even get through the first wave and schools and colleges will be in jeopardy still in August.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...d-trump-coronavirus-economy-models/index.html
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Yep. I think we’re racing towards herd immunity, or crawling. Either way I think it’s going to be next to impossible to lock people down in the good weather. Scary stuff.

This weekend there’s a massive youth baseball/softball tournament in my area. 80 teams.
 
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Mothers Day will be interesting. My wife is getting pressure from her family to come over for dinner. First, it’s going to be cold here this weekend so this won’t be a backyard bbq. Second, the FIL, MIL and wife’s sibling have not taken the stay at home order seriously. Now that things have been lifted, they are doubling down on going out. We have stayed in and done so purposefully. Yet, they can’t understand why we would want to avoid close contact with them. It’s crazy town.
 
Cortez88 said:
Mothers Day will be interesting. My wife is getting pressure from her family to come over for dinner. First, it’s going to be cold here this weekend so this won’t be a backyard bbq. Second, the FIL, MIL and wife’s sibling have not taken the stay at home order seriously. Now that things have been lifted, they are doubling down on going out. We have stayed in and done so purposefully. Yet, they can’t understand why we would want to avoid close contact with them. It’s crazy town.
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We are going to have a daughter and her husband come to visit this weekend. They have been practicing the standard stay at home rules as have we. While there is always some risk, they start back to work next Monday and visits after that time become much more dangerous until there is a vaccine (or who knows, the virus magically disappears). So we figured this weekend was the least risk possible.
 
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zeke4ahs said:
Predictions of 3,000 deaths a day in June.
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You really need to stop listening to left wing media. That 3,000 death/day was not a forcast nor was it a pediction. It wasn't even a complete work before it was leaked to the NYT where it was represented as both. It was a single piece of a broader work as the administration was preparing its reopening policies.

The researcher who developed a model predicting a steep surge in the country’s coronavirus cases and deaths has said that he was not aware that his work, which “was not in any way intended to be a forecast,” had been drafted into a government report.
***************************
Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins and the creator of the model, reinforced the government’s claim that the data was taken out of context. He explained that the report was a draft and delivered as a work-in-progress to officials within the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
​
see
 
zeke4ahs said:
Because we refuse to stay home. Americans are following their leader and hoping if they ignore it, the virus will just go away. Predictions of 3,000 deaths a day in June.,At this rate, we will never even get through the first wave and schools and colleges will be in jeopardy still in August.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...d-trump-coronavirus-economy-models/index.html
Click to expand...

Yesterday, I came across a facebook post being shared from a page called "The Republican (something)" and it has some propaganda claiming COVID is a hoax and deaths are being overreported. According to the post, there have only been 30K deaths at most.

What was even more interesting was that another user commented to say their same post was removed because it was flagged as false news, which led to a discussion of how the media's trying to hide the truth and the post was true. Sad days.
 
The thing is, I understand we can’t totally kill the economy and I can see some businesses going back with extreme caution. But some of the pictures I have seen with people at beaches and parks are just nuts. I think many Americans are just in denial.
 
zeke4ahs said:
Because we refuse to stay home. Americans are following their leader and hoping if they ignore it, the virus will just go away. Predictions of 3,000 deaths a day in June.,At this rate, we will never even get through the first wave and schools and colleges will be in jeopardy still in August.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...d-trump-coronavirus-economy-models/index.html
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Here's the opening statement of the article:
"President Donald Trump now knows the price of the haunting bargain required to reopen the country "

Trump is a gambler, a life-long gambler, a ruthless one at that, but he is not stupid. He knows his reelection chances are limited, very limited. He's got two choices:

1) Stay calm, and try to minimize the number of victims regardless of the potential outcome. None-the-less, the evil Democrats will surely beat him on this issue. Come November, he will no longer be the president; he will miss the chance to brag to be the "best ever president in history". I am sure he will claim as such regardless, but nobody else will dare to agree. yes, even the usuals. That he cannot accept; his ego will not let him.

2) Take a chance and reopen the nation. If he is super-lucky, the pandemic will magically disappear, economy revitalized, thereby assuring his reelection. If he is unlucky, or most likely if the medical professionals are right, the pandemic will get much worse, and many more people will die as a consequence. But then he doesn't care; emphathy has never been his strength.
 
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sglowrider said:
Do you think the country can take another lockdown with the inevitable 2nd wave?
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As silly as it sounds I think it will be a hell of a lot harder to lock people down in good weather. And that says nothing of the financial loss. Folks are tapped out and need money, badly. The stimulus package missed a ton of businesses. You know how many people owe taxes, haven’t filed taxes, owe child support, don’t have bank accounts, are one man shops with no employees in this country. Tens of millions. Literally. They aren’t staying home another two months. They can’t.
 
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A treatment that lowers fatalities by 95%, reducing the effects of Covid19 to that of a nasty cold, will have completed requisite trials by summer. The spirits should open full bore at that point.
 
mcmurtry66 said:
Baseball/softball tourney here this weekend with 80 teams.
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That seems crazy, but I guess we'll see. My son was wondering if there would be any competitive baseball this summer so maybe there is hope. While it may seem early, opening up sooner makes sense for Missouri over California, Florida, or NY. The challenge will be how do you keep teams from those places coming to Missouri and spreading things?
 
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mcmurtry66 said:
As silly as it sounds I think it will be a hell of a lot harder to lock people down in good weather. And that says nothing of the financial loss. Folks are tapped out and need money, badly. The stimulus package missed a ton of businesses. You know how many people owe taxes, haven’t filed taxes, owe child support, are one man shops with no employees in this country. Tens of millions. Literally. They aren’t staying home another two months. They can’t.
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You make a very good point indeed. That is a real problem and dilemma!:(
 
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hoosboot said:
That seems crazy, but I guess we'll see. My son was wondering if there would be any competitive baseball this summer so maybe there is hope. While it may seem early, opening up sooner makes sense for Missouri over California, Florida, or NY. The challenge will be how do you keep teams from those places coming to Missouri and spreading things?
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For sure. And I guess other than tennis/golf it’s about the “safest” sport for distancing. I read an article and the rules are wild. Umpires stand behind pitcher. No more than three players in the dugout. No stealing bases. Parents have to scatter themselves around the park. Etc. I agree it still seems nutty.
 
HillzHoozier said:
A treatment that lowers fatalities by 95%, reducing the effects of Covid19 to that of a nasty cold, will have completed requisite trials by summer. The spirits should open full bore at that point.
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Sorry, but since they're testing drugs that are already approved (deemed safe by the FDA), if there was a trace of evidence this was true the trials would have already been stopped and the drug would be made immediately available.
 
mcmurtry66 said:
As silly as it sounds I think it will be a hell of a lot harder to lock people down in good weather. And that says nothing of the financial loss. Folks are tapped out and need money, badly. The stimulus package missed a ton of businesses. You know how many people owe taxes, haven’t filed taxes, owe child support, don’t have bank accounts, are one man shops with no employees in this country. Tens of millions. Literally. They aren’t staying home another two months. They can’t.
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I posted this earlier on a different thread:
 
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zeke4ahs said:
But some of the pictures I have seen with people at beaches and parks are just nuts.
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Being outside is an extremely low risk. Those beach pictures, I believe, are delibertely misleading because they are taken with long focal lengths.

Longer focal lengths compress the image by causing the background to appear closer to the subject. This compression also causes objects (or actors) that are behind one another to appear closer together than they really are.​
 
HillzHoozier said:
A treatment that lowers fatalities by 95%, reducing the effects of Covid19 to that of a nasty cold, will have completed requisite trials by summer. The spirits should open full bore at that point.
Click to expand...
Care to share?
 
CO. Hoosier said:
Being outside is an extremely low risk. Those beach pictures, I believe, are delibertely misleading because they are taken with long focal lengths.

Longer focal lengths compress the image by causing the background to appear closer to the subject. This compression also causes objects (or actors) that are behind one another to appear closer together than they really are.​
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I don’t believe it’s low risk if you don’t have a mask on and are packed like sardines. Some of the beach pictures are misleading but you can also tell there are some big groups all together.
 
JamieDimonsBalls said:
Called what?
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The HCQ/Zinc/antibiotic protocol which has been discussed ad nauseam. It's the best there is at this point, and what I would want as soon as I developed symptoms.

I have been following this very closely and other countries, poorer ones with fewer options, are using this as standard of care with very positive results, with proper timing (administering at early onset of symptoms) and full protocol, meaning 3-substance combo. Some heart-related side effects associated with using z-pak in rare cases, so trials are currently being run with doxicillin as the antibiotic.

I gave my mom a hug over the weekend for the first time in 2 months at her insistence. If she were to get covid19 at some point, I would hope that the combo above were available to her doctor. I believe its success is the key that unlocks our society.
 
zeke4ahs said:
I don’t believe it’s low risk if you don’t have a mask on and are packed like sardines. Some of the beach pictures are misleading but you can also tell there are some big groups all together.
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Even a packed beach isn't very packed compared to even a typical indoor space--such as a classroom. And when you consider the amount of infected people have been variously reported as a maximum of 25-30% or so, and because beaches are usually breezy, I don't think the risk is much at all. If you are a high risk individual, stay away from the beach, or walk to a place where spacing is much greater. I don't think the data support closing down beaches to everyone.
 
CO. Hoosier said:
Even a packed beach isn't very packed compared to even a typical indoor space--such as a classroom. And when you consider the amount of infected people have been variously reported as a maximum of 25-30% or so, and because beaches are usually breezy, I don't think the risk is much at all. If you are a high risk individual, stay away from the beach, or walk to a place where spacing is much greater. I don't think the data support closing down beaches to everyone.
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because of the wind, people should be able to use beaches, parks, etc. however it makes no sense not to do so in a socially distanced way
 
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JamieDimonsBalls said:
because of the wind, people should be able to use beaches, parks, etc. however it makes no sense not to do so in a socially distanced way
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Agreed. The beach I normally visit social distancing is a natural thing. Except for obvious family or friend groups, people are away from each by at least 8 feet. Even the chair and umbrella concessionaire spaces pairs of chairs about 10 feet apart.
 
CO. Hoosier said:
Even a packed beach isn't very packed compared to even a typical indoor space--such as a classroom. And when you consider the amount of infected people have been variously reported as a maximum of 25-30% or so, and because beaches are usually breezy, I don't think the risk is much at all. If you are a high risk individual, stay away from the beach, or walk to a place where spacing is much greater. I don't think the data support closing down beaches to everyone.
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I hope that you're including anyone who works with or is in contact with high risk individuals in your calculus. The point is not just to keep high risk individuals from catching it directly in a public space (beach, park, mall,or otherwise) but to keep the virus from spreading overall and getting into high risk populations.
 
CO. Hoosier said:
Agreed. The beach I normally visit social distancing is a natural thing. Except for obvious family or friend groups, people are away from each by at least 8 feet. Even the chair and umbrella concessionaire spaces pairs of chairs about 10 feet apart.
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Which one is that, Boring Beach or Not Popular State Recreation Area? :)

By July 4th, we better figure out some good protocols for encouraging spacing at popular spots because they get pretty packed in normal summer times and these are far from normal times.
 
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CO. Hoosier said:
Agreed. The beach I normally visit social distancing is a natural thing. Except for obvious family or friend groups, people are away from each by at least 8 feet. Even the chair and umbrella concessionaire spaces pairs of chairs about 10 feet apart.
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Parks opened near me. The trails are quite spacious. The parking lots, however, and the paths leading to the trails are jammed packed and do not facilitate social distancing.

In many cases a similar situation is in effect for beaches, which are closed (still) in my area (Palm Beach County). To get to the beach itself, you will use a crowded parking lot and a crowded path & stairway to get there.

Maybe it can be worked out if half of the parking spaces are blocked off, but that seems to not be the plan anywhere.
 
hoosboot said:
I hope that you're including anyone who works with or is in contact with high risk individuals in your calculus. The point is not just to keep high risk individuals from catching it directly in a public space (beach, park, mall,or otherwise) but to keep the virus from spreading overall and getting into high risk populations.
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Agreed. But the point is that the virus doesn't spread in well-ventilated spaces or outside. That doesn't mean you engage face to face with strangers for extended periods. But even passing people, where the "contact" is seconds instead of minutes, on a beach or sidewalk is very low risk.
 
CO. Hoosier said:
Even a packed beach isn't very packed compared to even a typical indoor space--such as a classroom. And when you consider the amount of infected people have been variously reported as a maximum of 25-30% or so, and because beaches are usually breezy, I don't think the risk is much at all. If you are a high risk individual, stay away from the beach, or walk to a place where spacing is much greater. I don't think the data support closing down beaches to everyone.
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I saw enough Gilligan's Island to know that beaches are dangerous. Any moment a coconut can fall from a tree and give you amnesia. For God's sakes, STAY HOME!
 
CO. Hoosier said:
All I gotta do is wear my Speedo and people scatter. So i'm always safe.
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Well done.

CO. Hoosier said:
Agreed. But the point is that the virus doesn't spread in well-ventilated spaces or outside. That doesn't mean you engage face to face with strangers for extended periods. But even passing people, where the "contact" is seconds instead of minutes, on a beach or sidewalk is very low risk.
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I think that's among the keys. Modulating our behavior to mitigate the risks as much as possible. Unfortunately, there are lots of people who get rankled when anybody tells them what to do so they purposefully do things like go the wrong way down a one-way shopping aisle (or shoot a security guard because they told someone to put on a mask). Around here, normal beach days involve fairly persistent contact with hundreds of people. It will be interesting as we modify our behavior in fits and starts, but I'm encouraged by the general response overall.
 
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HillzHoozier said:
I saw enough Gilligan's Island to know that beaches are dangerous. Any moment a coconut can fall from a tree and give you amnesia. For God's sakes, STAY HOME!
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Of course!
If Gilligan's Island said so, it must be true! What more proof, or denial for that matter, do we need?
Thanks for the advice!;)
 
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