Big Ten (2 bids)
SAFELY IN: NebraskaON THE BUBBLE (IN): Purdue
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Illinois, Indiana, Maryland
One change from last week: Purdue replaces Illinois in our field of 64, keeping the Big Ten a two-bid league.
The Boilermakers swept a road series at Northwestern to move into a tie with the Illini atop the standings at 11-4, and the two teams are back-to-back in the RPI at No. 62 and 63. We feel like the Big Ten will wind up as a two-bid league, and Nebraska is the only team with an obvious at-large resumé, sitting at No. 20 in the RPI with a 10-5 conference record. If a team other than the Huskers wins the conference tournament, Nebraska will get an at-large bid, making this a two-bid league. But if Nebraska wins the conference tournament, the best path to an at-large bid for the Big Ten would be if a team other than the Huskers can win the regular-season title, and right now the Boilermakers and Illini have that narrow one-game lead over Nebraska, Indiana and Michigan, all of whom are tied at 10-5. It feels like a coin toss between Illinois and Purdue, but we gave the nod to the Boilermakers because they get to host Illinois in the final weekend, so we’ll give the edge to the home team.
Indiana (No. 67 RPI) and Maryland (No. 40) are also both in the hunt, but both have a lot of work to do — as do Purdue and Illinois, really. The Hoosiers have rebounded from a rocky start against a tough nonconference schedule, reeling off five straight weekend series wins to climb back into the 60s in the RPI, with crucial road series coming up at Purdue and at Nebraska over the next two weeks. Should Indiana win both of those, they’ll likely secure themselves as an at-large team. IU also finishes with a home set vs. Michigan, so the Hoosiers must run the gauntlet against three of the teams currently separated by one game atop the standings. If they get in, they will have earned it. Maryland, meanwhile, is just 8-10 in the league, but a series win vs. Illinois this past weekend kept hopes alive for the Terps. The RPI gives them a shot, they just need to keep winning series to climb the standings. A 5-1 showing in their final two conference series (at Rutgers, vs. Penn State) feels essential; that’s possible but not a cake walk, even though the Nittany Lions and Scarlet Knights are down toward the bottom of the standings. For now, Maryland still feels like something of a long shot — there are just two many teams ahead of the Terps in the standings.
