Coronavirus math

Discussion in 'The Water Cooler' started by 82hoosier, Mar 26, 2020.

  1. 76-1

    76-1 All-American
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    The University of Nebraska Medical Center is already doing a double blind study on that drug and have said it looks "promising".,,
     
  2. outside shooter

    outside shooter Hall of Famer
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    Death growth rate in specific areas in the USA. Some areas are more than doubling every 2 days. Not Chinese data. Doesn't depend on testing, except for tests for a heartbeat. :(

     
  3. CO. Hoosier

    CO. Hoosier Hall of Famer
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    The death statistics are also unreliable because in Italy, for example, they count as a Coronavirus death all those who died with the disease present in their body, but the COD might be the underlying condition. We do know that of those who are counted as a Coronavirus death, the vast majority (like > 90%) have underlying conditions and the most common underlying condition is diabetes.

    In my age group, about 4% of people will die within a year of any cause. If you sample only those in my age group who have an underlying condition, I'm sure that 4% would be higher. The point is that in order to really understand the impact of Coronavirus you need to factor out the number of deaths anyway, say within 12 months, of people with the underlying conditions.
     
  4. 82hoosier

    82hoosier All-American
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    There is no way in hell New York or California would vote for Trump. And right now they will be the biggest users a ventilators. He will forget that these two states account for 25% of the gross national product. But you can rest assured of that Trump is going to blame Democratic leadership at the state level for the difficulties that are going to be born by the blue states.
     
    44 82hoosier, Mar 27, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
  5. INRanger27

    INRanger27 All-American
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    Don’t question China you racist
     
  6. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    According to the New York Times, there are about 170,000 ventilators in the US while the American Hospital Association estimates 960,000 people will need them over the course of the pandemic.
     
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  7. mashnut

    mashnut Freshman
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    With respect, whether or not you as an individual die isn’t the scary thing here. It’s that accelerating a year worth of people your age dying into a month or two overwhelms the medical system which means that survivable cases of COVID but also other survivable illnesses and health problems have much worse prognoses.
     
  8. outside shooter

    outside shooter Hall of Famer
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    That affects the total numbers, probably by a constant amount, and it no way would explain the alarming RATE of increase in deaths, such as doubling every 2-3 days.
     
  9. CO. Hoosier

    CO. Hoosier Hall of Famer
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    Right. I was talking about only what the data say.
     
  10. CO. Hoosier

    CO. Hoosier Hall of Famer
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    I think the rate will decrease over time.
     
  11. outside shooter

    outside shooter Hall of Famer
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    I am sure doctors and nurses are learning about treatment, and that the weakest will be gone, so it is definitely right that the rate of increase will drop. But there is no indication to expect it soon.

    Even in places where they got serious overnight, like South Korea, it took a couple of weeks at least to reign it in. Americans are nowhere near as compliant with government instructions as are South Koreans.
     
  12. INRanger27

    INRanger27 All-American
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    960k at peak usage or spread out over course of pandemic? How long is the average patient on the ventilator until death/recovery.
     
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  13. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Normally 2 days for most patients. But with this virus, 10 days average.
     
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  14. 82hoosier

    82hoosier All-American
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    Governor Cuomo said that some people have been on ventilators for 30 days and the longer the time on a ventilator the more dire the outcome. More tough decisions to be made.
     
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  15. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    This is the risk of bypassing containment and straight into mitigation.
     
  16. zeke4ahs

    zeke4ahs Hall of Famer
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    Yep I’ve been saying all along that’s what he is going to do. That’s why he’s making states do it on their own, resulting in bidding wars on equipment. What a surprise that it’s going to hit big cities more than rural areas.
     
  17. Noodle

    Noodle Hall of Famer
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    And the people who would have died next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.
     
  18. outside shooter

    outside shooter Hall of Famer
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    Deaths in NYC today went from ~360 to well over 500. By mid afternoon....
     
  19. hoosboot

    hoosboot Hall of Famer
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    Glad that this side of you has been absent for the most part the last couple of years.
     
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  20. INRanger27

    INRanger27 All-American
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    The sarcastic side? It hasn’t. Get off your fainting couch.
     
  21. hoosboot

    hoosboot Hall of Famer
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    Drinking, huh? Enjoy! ;)
     

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