Coronavirus math

[76-1]

Here's some good news on treatment. The guys was almost written off a couple days ago and now he has been taken off his ECMO:

https://www.praguemorning.cz/czech-patient-conditions-improved-after-being-treated-with-remdesivir/

Czech Patient Conditions Improved After Being Treated With Remdesivir

BY PRAGUE MORNING
MARCH 27, 2020

The condition of the patient suffering from COVID-19, who was being treated with Remdesivir, improved significantly.

Czech Television’s spokeswoman Marie Heřmánková confirmed the news on Friday morning.

The Czech patient, a Prague taxi driver, was admitted to the General University Hospital in critical condition and has been on ventilation for many days. Today, he has been disconnected from the ECMO, which ensures extracorporeal blood oxygenation.

The hospital will give further details at 12:30 during a press conference.

“This is not the cure, but the patient’s condition has vastly improved,” said Martin Balík, head of the anesthesiology clinic.


The hospital received the permit to use the experimental drug from the U.S. firm Gilead. At the same time, Gilead announced on Sunday that it has stopped granting “experimental treatments” due to excessive demand in recent days.

Remdesivir is an antiviral, intravenous medicine made by Gilead Sciences that’s been around for years as an experimental compound, but was never approved by the Food and Drug Administration — or any other country’s drug approval agency.

Remdesivir was one of the drugs being studied in 2014 as a potential Ebola treatment, but was sidelined in favor of other treatments and vaccines.

Since then, scientists have done lab studies to see how Remdesivir performed against several other viruses, including two viruses in the same coronavirus family as the one that causes COVID-19 — the viruses behind SARS and MERS. They saw positive results in lab tests and animal studies, and think the drug interferes with viruses’ ability to replicate.

As of Friday morning, there are 2,062 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus infection in the Czech Republic. Ten patients have fully recovered, nine died. A total of 31,127 tests have been carried out.

The University of Nebraska Medical Center is already doing a double blind study on that drug and have said it looks "promising".,,

 

[outside shooter]

Death growth rate in specific areas in the USA. Some areas are more than doubling every 2 days. Not Chinese data. Doesn't depend on testing, except for tests for a heartbeat.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

The only semi-accurate numbers in that “official data” are deaths. And even those are likely on the low side since were not necessarily testing everyone who succumbs to the disease. Even the increase in cases can’t tell us much given the inconsistency and changes in who gets tested.

The death statistics are also unreliable because in Italy, for example, they count as a Coronavirus death all those who died with the disease present in their body, but the COD might be the underlying condition. We do know that of those who are counted as a Coronavirus death, the vast majority (like > 90%) have underlying conditions and the most common underlying condition is diabetes.

In my age group, about 4% of people will die within a year of any cause. If you sample only those in my age group who have an underlying condition, I'm sure that 4% would be higher. The point is that in order to really understand the impact of Coronavirus you need to factor out the number of deaths anyway, say within 12 months, of people with the underlying conditions.

 

[82hoosier]

You can see the next blame game coming. First it was the Wuhan Virus. Next it will be those blue states infecting the red states. Trump will drive this narrative to deflect responsibility and sow division. In a time when we should be working together the man who takes no responsibility will look to blame other Americans.

If you are still supporting this man, you need to reflect on your moral compass.

You can see the next blame game coming. First it was the Wuhan Virus. Next it will be those blue states infecting the red states. Trump will drive this narrative to deflect responsibility and sow division. In a time when we should be working together the man who takes no responsibility will look to blame other Americans.

If you are still supporting this man, you need to reflect on your moral compass.

There is no way in hell New York or California would vote for Trump. And right now they will be the biggest users a ventilators. He will forget that these two states account for 25% of the gross national product. But you can rest assured of that Trump is going to blame Democratic leadership at the state level for the difficulties that are going to be born by the blue states.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

This is all absurd. You can’t really do jack shit with the data when the amount of testing is all over the board, we have no clue how many people actually hsve/had it, and the data from China and elsewhere is completely unreliable if not false. You all are delusional if you think you can do anything meaningful with this data.

Don’t question China you racist

 

[sglowrider]

What's your estimate to the number of vents needed?

According to the New York Times, there are about 170,000 ventilators in the US while the American Hospital Association estimates 960,000 people will need them over the course of the pandemic.

 

[mashnut]

The death statistics are also unreliable because in Italy, for example, they count as a Coronavirus death all those who died with the disease present in their body, but the COD might be the underlying condition. We do know that of those who are counted as a Coronavirus death, the vast majority (like > 90%) have underlying conditions and the most common underlying condition is diabetes.

In my age group, about 4% of people will die within a year of any cause. If you sample only those in my age group who have an underlying condition, I'm sure that 4% would be higher. The point is that in order to really understand the impact of Coronavirus you need to factor out the number of deaths anyway, say within 12 months, of people with the underlying conditions.

With respect, whether or not you as an individual die isn’t the scary thing here. It’s that accelerating a year worth of people your age dying into a month or two overwhelms the medical system which means that survivable cases of COVID but also other survivable illnesses and health problems have much worse prognoses.

 

[outside shooter]

The death statistics are also unreliable because in Italy, for example, they count as a Coronavirus death all those who died with the disease present in their body, but the COD might be the underlying condition. We do know that of those who are counted as a Coronavirus death, the vast majority (like > 90%) have underlying conditions and the most common underlying condition is diabetes.

In my age group, about 4% of people will die within a year of any cause. If you sample only those in my age group who have an underlying condition, I'm sure that 4% would be higher. The point is that in order to really understand the impact of Coronavirus you need to factor out the number of deaths anyway, say within 12 months, of people with the underlying conditions.

That affects the total numbers, probably by a constant amount, and it no way would explain the alarming RATE of increase in deaths, such as doubling every 2-3 days.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

With respect, whether or not you as an individual die isn’t the scary thing here. It’s that accelerating a year worth of people your age dying into a month or two overwhelms the medical system which means that survivable cases of COVID but also other survivable illnesses and health problems have much worse prognoses.

Right. I was talking about only what the data say.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

That affects the total numbers, probably by a constant amount, and it no way would explain the alarming RATE of increase in deaths, such as doubling every 2-3 days.

I think the rate will decrease over time.

 

[outside shooter]

I think the rate will decrease over time.

I am sure doctors and nurses are learning about treatment, and that the weakest will be gone, so it is definitely right that the rate of increase will drop. But there is no indication to expect it soon.

Even in places where they got serious overnight, like South Korea, it took a couple of weeks at least to reign it in. Americans are nowhere near as compliant with government instructions as are South Koreans.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

According to the New York Times, there are about 170,000 ventilators in the US while the American Hospital Association estimates 960,000 people will need them over the course of the pandemic.

960k at peak usage or spread out over course of pandemic? How long is the average patient on the ventilator until death/recovery.

 

[sglowrider]

960k at peak usage or spread out over course of pandemic? How long is the average patient on the ventilator until death/recovery.

Normally 2 days for most patients. But with this virus, 10 days average.

 

[82hoosier]

Normally 2 days for most patients. But with this virus, 10 days average.

Governor Cuomo said that some people have been on ventilators for 30 days and the longer the time on a ventilator the more dire the outcome. More tough decisions to be made.

 

[sglowrider]

Governor Cuomo said that some people have been on ventilators for 30 days and the longer the time on a ventilator the more dire the outcome. More tough decisions to be made.

This is the risk of bypassing containment and straight into mitigation.

 

[zeke4ahs]

There is no way in hell New York or California would vote for Trump. And right now they will be the biggest users a ventilators. He will forget that these two states account for 25% of the gross national product. But you can rest assured of that Trump is going to blame Democratic leadership at the state level for the difficulties that are going to be born by the blue states.

Yep I’ve been saying all along that’s what he is going to do. That’s why he’s making states do it on their own, resulting in bidding wars on equipment. What a surprise that it’s going to hit big cities more than rural areas.

 

[Noodle]

With respect, whether or not you as an individual die isn’t the scary thing here. It’s that accelerating a year worth of people your age dying into a month or two overwhelms the medical system which means that survivable cases of COVID but also other survivable illnesses and health problems have much worse prognoses.

And the people who would have died next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.

 

[outside shooter]

Deaths in NYC today went from ~360 to well over 500. By mid afternoon....

 

[hoosboot]

Don’t question China you racist

Glad that this side of you has been absent for the most part the last couple of years.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Glad that this side of you has been absent for the most part the last couple of years.

The sarcastic side? It hasn’t. Get off your fainting couch.

 

[hoosboot]

The sarcastic side? It hasn’t. Get off your fainting couch.

Drinking, huh? Enjoy!