Coronavirus math

Discussion in 'The Water Cooler' started by 82hoosier, Mar 26, 2020.

  1. 82hoosier

    82hoosier All-American
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    Edit: talked with a buddy of mine today who is a teaching doctor at a major university and he said that they don’t know what the growth rate will look like. Right now it’s doubling every 2 to 3 days but at a certain point it will start to slow down because so many people have been exposed to the virus. I had read another article by a scientist in Israel who said something similar that we tend to travel within certain circles and exposure in those circle will become saturated.The problem is nobody knows when that will be. Nobody knows how many people have been exposed. At this point the experts can only make guesses as to the exposure.

    —————————————————————————————————————————-

    I am reading, as most all of you are will be reading , that there are projections that the death hotel could peak in three weeks. And that deaths are going to be doubling every 2 to 3 days. So let’s do a little math. We are approaching 1000 paid cases and that’s an easy round number to work with.

    First let’s assume the death rate doubles every three days. In a three week period that would mean doubling seven times: 2000, 4000, 8000, 16,000, 32,000, 64,000, 128,000.

    Now assume is doubles every two days - that’s 10.5 times: 2000, 4,000, 8,000, 16,000, 32,000, 64,000, 128,000, 256,000, 512,000, 1,024,000, 2,048,000.

    There presently is no vaccine or cure. Are you willing to bet that there are “only” going to be 128,000 total deaths in three weeks? Or that there will “only” be 2 million total deaths in three weeks? Right now it is guess work. Every day more information will be analyzed and the picture will become a bit clearer.

    Now consider that people who die in three weeks probably are not infected today. No vaccine. No cure. This is why Boris Johnson did a 180 degree turn four days after he said Britain would let the virus run its course. Remember Trump saying he would exclude the Brits from the travel ban because he liked what the UK was doing?

    If the Trumpsters were to pack the churches on Easter Sunday there might not be enough of them left to elect him in November.
     
    1 82hoosier, Mar 26, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
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  2. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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  3. outside shooter

    outside shooter Hall of Famer
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    so we will be...

    lucky if the death toll is 43 times that from 9/11
    unlucky if the death toll is 688 times that from 9/11
     
  4. JamieDimonsBalls

    JamieDimonsBalls All-American
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    Why would anyone assume the number of deaths doubles every three days? That isn't happening on a global basis.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

    It's also not happening in Italy, for instance, which a proxy for how bad things can get.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
     
  5. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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  6. outside shooter

    outside shooter Hall of Famer
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    How steep does the pink line look to you?

    [​IMG]
     
  7. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    My glasses need to be upgraded but is that my 401K I am looking at?

    [​IMG]
     
    7 sglowrider, Mar 26, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
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  8. JamieDimonsBalls

    JamieDimonsBalls All-American
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    Off of an incredibly small base. Size matters, regardless of what @sglowrider wants you to think;)
     
  9. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    That's an Asian defense mechanism.
     
  10. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Personally I have not heard about such a concept. [​IMG]
     
  11. Noodle

    Noodle Hall of Famer
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    This is all absurd. You can’t really do jack shit with the data when the amount of testing is all over the board, we have no clue how many people actually hsve/had it, and the data from China and elsewhere is completely unreliable if not false. You all are delusional if you think you can do anything meaningful with this data.
     
  12. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    That's only almost true. We have some valuable data. For example, the number of deaths per day we are now experiencing puts to bed the idiotic argument many here made as recently as a week (or less) ago that this was no worse than seasonal flu.

    We don't have the necessary data to completely explain this pandemic and write the Definitive History of it, but we do have enough data to at least draw some conclusions.
     
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  13. Noodle

    Noodle Hall of Famer
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    I’ll give you that. But all that tells us it’s getting worse real fast, and in sone cities more so than others But that’s it. Anything else is pure fantasy. Worse yet, there’s not a hell of a lot we can even do with that data other than know where to ship more body bags. We’re swinging at strikes but only after the umpire has told us it was a strike.
     
  14. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Senior
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    We can also draw some conclusions from the numbers presenting with fever/flu like symptoms in various counties.
     
  15. Noodle

    Noodle Hall of Famer
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    And who the hell cares about writing the “definitive history” of this mess?
     
  16. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    Yes, we are definitely in reactive phase now, and there's probably no going back. We just have to see what the disease throws our way and try to respond.
     
  17. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    Someone will someday!
     
  18. Noodle

    Noodle Hall of Famer
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    That’s nice. Too bad no one seems to be tracking that.
     
  19. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Senior
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    I should have said inferences and not conclusions. And it is being tracked in various states. I don’t know about nationwide.
     
  20. DerrickC

    DerrickC Hall of Famer
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    Only officially reported numbers

    4 weeks ago: 60 cases, 0 deaths
    3 weeks ago: 227 cases, 12 deaths
    2 weeks ago: 1,636 cases, 41 deaths
    1 week ago: 13,229 cases, 195 deaths
    Right now: 85,594 cases, 1,300 deaths
     
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  21. mainway_toys

    mainway_toys All-Big Ten
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    The US was at 110 on 3/17, 255 on 3/20, 555 on 3/23, and 1,295 on 3/26. That's more than doubling every three days.

    I don't think the global number means much yet, but will increasingly as more hot spots erupt and It starts really spreading to rural communities.
     
  22. Noodle

    Noodle Hall of Famer
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    The only semi-accurate numbers in that “official data” are deaths. And even those are likely on the low side since were not necessarily testing everyone who succumbs to the disease. Even the increase in cases can’t tell us much given the inconsistency and changes in who gets tested.
     
  23. JamieDimonsBalls

    JamieDimonsBalls All-American
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    those are very small numbers. If you want to bet that we’ll have 128K within 3 weeks, I’ll take the under
     
  24. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    And what does testing tell you other than a snapshot of what you have that potential 14 day incubation period? A few days after the test, I could still pick up the bug.

    Testing will need to be done every month at least, going forward.
     
  25. Noodle

    Noodle Hall of Famer
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    Absolutely. I’m not talking about testing everyone. But in most states you can’t get tested simply because you have symptoms. I know several people who probably had/have it but cannot get tested. As a result we are flying blind
     
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  26. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    There are two types of Covid tests.

    One is a PCR based where you get a swab then put it into some protected container and make sure you get it to the lab within a certain time frame. (or it affects the quality of the sample.) Then your results will be available in 2 hrs or less. So they can decide whether you need to be quarantined or be allowed to wander the earth further.

    The other type is the POCT rapid test kits, anit-bodies based -- where you have a lancet that pinpricks the finger, you have a tube/suction to draw up the few drops of blood. Then that flood sample is dropped onto a cassette, you add some reagents and then you wait 10minutes.

    The difference between the two is accuracy -- varies between 99% for the PCR based and 94-98% for the POCT kits.

    Then there is the price. Probably 3-4 times more for the PCR lab-based kit globally -- but 10-12 times more compared to the PCR test kits being sold/charged by the usual suspects in the States.

    The old' EpiPen scenario once again.

    The UK has just approved these POCT kits to be sold at Amazon and at Boot's Chemist (the largest pharmacist in the high streets in the UK.)

    They are all available globally.

    For rural towns and hamlets, or even traffic-congested cities, the latter is better. It's like a pap smear test. Not necessarily accurate but good when you take it regularly.

    As I mentioned earlier, you will probably need to test yourself every 3-4 weeks if you are community conscious. But what do you do with the 83 million under/uninsureds?
     
  27. Noodle

    Noodle Hall of Famer
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    LOL it takes days for a lot of people to get test results here in the states. Days, not hours. I am not aware of any significant antibody testing here in the U.S.
     
  28. 82hoosier

    82hoosier All-American
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    Right now these are modeling tools that are being used with limited capability. Because the number of test being given is increasing daily the number of confirmations will increase because of catch casting a wider net. Deaths on the other hand are not subject to testing interpretation. There can be no debate that deaths are increasing quickly. And the people dying were infected probably three weeks ago. But what we don’t know is when the host population is saturated. The point where most people have either been exposed and unaffected, or exposed and treated, or died. Right now we don’t know anything as to where we are on that curve.

    so with regard to the testing data you work with the information you have and you recognize its limitations.

    The only thing is certain is that everybody going to church on Easter Sunday is Looney Tunes.

    Did you see were Bill Gates today came out calling for a shut down of 6 to 10 weeks? That’s the same Bill Gates who now focuses much of his time and efforts looking for vaccines to cure child diseases in developing countries. I’m sure he’s got some heavy hitter advisors. I don’t know if he’s talk to Jared though
     
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  29. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Yeap. You guys are being kept in the dark on a lot of this. The PCR tests will have results back within 1hr 40mins or max 2hrs.

    Speed is critical -- otherwise, the person could be walking around spreading the virus.

    Thats why its nuts for me -- I can see this ship heading towards an iceberg..
     
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  30. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    Two weeks after Easter, this country is F*CKED.
     
  31. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    I am slight optimistic in that everyone I know is either doing self-isolation or working from home. The private sector took initiative on this. This will help
    The problem is sustainability. You cant blow your wad too early. There wont be some peak and then its all done like some movie conclusion.

    There will be a long war -- each wave/battle will present different causes but the same effect.

    We have not gone draconian yet with this current battle/war -- Taiwan has GPS wrist tagged every visitor that comes in. But the results show -- they are by far the gold standard. S'pore and HK have slipped with our inability to manage the imports.

    But Singapore being Singapore, they can't help themselves.

    Now, anyone who breaks the quarantine will be fined $10,000 or 6 months jail. There was a case of a singaporean who went abroad and picked up the bug. Then lied about not knowing about when the quarantine starts and went out for his favourite meal. He maybe struggling to eat that favourite meal for a while now.
     
    31 sglowrider, Mar 27, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
  32. 82hoosier

    82hoosier All-American
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    The good:
    Dyson engineered their ventilator in 10 days and they told Boris Johnson he will have 10,000 of them available in early April. American companies are now partnering on the problem also. It’s an understatement to say that it’s too bad they got such a late start.

    Scientists and super computers all around the world that are working on vaccines or a cure. Perhaps someone will find something that mitigates the impact of this virus on those that are affected the worst.

    American companies are starting to get involved with government on the state and local level to get projects and manufacturing started. They are not waiting for the federal government which has fallen flat on its face.

    Governors and mayors now realize that they’re the ones that need to call the shots because Trump is clueless.

    The bad:
    Trump still has no idea what is going on and it appears that everybody in his cabinet is afraid to do the right thing.

    The Ugly

    The healthcare system is being slammed and it’s going to get worse. Much much worse. It is amazing how dedicated the healthcare workers in this country are. And around the world for that matter.
     
    32 82hoosier, Mar 27, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
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  33. Zizkov

    Zizkov Moderator
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    Here's some good news on treatment. The guys was almost written off a couple days ago and now he has been taken off his ECMO:

    https://www.praguemorning.cz/czech-patient-conditions-improved-after-being-treated-with-remdesivir/

    Czech Patient Conditions Improved After Being Treated With Remdesivir
    [​IMG]
    BY PRAGUE MORNING
    MARCH 27, 2020

    The condition of the patient suffering from COVID-19, who was being treated with Remdesivir, improved significantly.

    Czech Television’s spokeswoman Marie Heřmánková confirmed the news on Friday morning.

    The Czech patient, a Prague taxi driver, was admitted to the General University Hospital in critical condition and has been on ventilation for many days. Today, he has been disconnected from the ECMO, which ensures extracorporeal blood oxygenation.

    The hospital will give further details at 12:30 during a press conference.

    “This is not the cure, but the patient’s condition has vastly improved,” said Martin Balík, head of the anesthesiology clinic.


    The hospital received the permit to use the experimental drug from the U.S. firm Gilead. At the same time, Gilead announced on Sunday that it has stopped granting “experimental treatments” due to excessive demand in recent days.

    Remdesivir is an antiviral, intravenous medicine made by Gilead Sciences that’s been around for years as an experimental compound, but was never approved by the Food and Drug Administration — or any other country’s drug approval agency.

    Remdesivir was one of the drugs being studied in 2014 as a potential Ebola treatment, but was sidelined in favor of other treatments and vaccines.

    Since then, scientists have done lab studies to see how Remdesivir performed against several other viruses, including two viruses in the same coronavirus family as the one that causes COVID-19 — the viruses behind SARS and MERS. They saw positive results in lab tests and animal studies, and think the drug interferes with viruses’ ability to replicate.

    As of Friday morning, there are 2,062 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus infection in the Czech Republic. Ten patients have fully recovered, nine died. A total of 31,127 tests have been carried out.
     
  34. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Singapore scientists plan to start testing COVID-19 vaccine this year:


    A COVID-19 therapeutic workgroup, comprising of members from various hospitals across different disciplines and the Health Science Authority (HSA), has been set up to look at using repurposed drugs with antiviral activity to treat infected patients in Singapore.

    Mr Gan said the group will work on guidelines for using the drugs, which include anti-HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir, Interferon Beta-1B and hydroxychloroquine.

    Last month, the Ministry of Health’s (MOH) chief health scientist Tan Chorh Chuan told reporters a small number of coronavirus patients are being treated with anti-HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir.


    He said MOH will need to see the results of the trials done in China and other places and determine how effective they are.

    “The results so far from other studies have looked quite promising,” Prof Tan had said.
     
  35. bawlmer

    bawlmer All-Big Ten
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    Excerpt from a story on the status of ongoing research for treatments:

    Remdesivir
    Timeline: First data could come in April

    Remdesivir, an antiviral medicine that failed as an Ebola treatment, was initially developed to work against a different coronavirus. There’s some evidence that it benefits Covid-19 patients. Its maker, Gilead, has been working with researchers and governments around the world to get clinical trials up and running. The company has said to expect results in April. Six large studies are in progress, with the first, in severely ill patients in China, due to finish as early as April 3, according to a government website. A study in patients with milder disease will also finish in April, with two more due in May. In the meantime, Gilead has made the drug available to hundreds of patients on a compassionate use basis. However, it recently said that, due to overwhelming demand, it would suspend access to the drug for all but pregnant women and children as it works to create a more systematic way of giving it out without interfering with clinical trials. This new system should be in place soon. Remdesivir must be given intravenously.
     
  36. Noodle

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  37. Cortez88

    Cortez88 Senior
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    Trump previewed his next disaster on Hannity last night. After shitting on Democratic governors, he said that the states are asking for things that they don’t need. They don’t need all the ventilators and other PPE.

    Also reported that the WH has balked at the price for GM to provide additional ventilators. The report says Kushner, who is neither an appointed nor elected official, doesn’t want the government to get stuck with a bunch of ventilators it doesn’t need.

    The incompetence is truly staggering.
     
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  38. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    He said that a lot of the equipment the medical professionals are asking for they don't need...John Trump's genius genes apparently stretch into hospital administration too.


    You may run out of ICU rooms but more likely the ventilators first -- an average ICU patient uses the ventilators for an average of two days. A Covid patient so far seems to average like TEN days of using the ventilator.
     
  39. Cortez88

    Cortez88 Senior
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    You can see the next blame game coming. First it was the Wuhan Virus. Next it will be those blue states infecting the red states. Trump will drive this narrative to deflect responsibility and sow division. In a time when we should be working together the man who takes no responsibility will look to blame other Americans.

    If you are still supporting this man, you need to reflect on your moral compass.
     
  40. Spartans9312

    Spartans9312 Sophomore
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    What's your estimate to the number of vents needed?
     

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