CONFERENCE SEASON/SCHEDULING CRAZINESS (long)

[THEHOOSIER]

I'm reposting this to the free board for more discussion and because its pretty interesting. Sorry for the caps, I just felt this was pretty interesting and didnt want it getting lost in the shuffle. So my brother Real Hoosier and I were having a discussion today at work about the conference season being at the halfway point. One thing we became curious about was just how tough each schedule has been to this point for each team. For discussion sake, we thought we would do some digging and see just how each teams schedule has played out in the first half of the conference season.

What we found was pretty surprising and in some ways a bit ridiculous. We decided on just focusing on the Top 7 teams schedules since there are 14 teams. We would just look at the TOP half, the best teams right now. Using that, we would check how many games each of those top 7 had against the OTHER teams in the Top 7. We would also see how many out of those games were on the road since those are always tougher games than home. All 7 have played 9 games, with IU and Michigan the only 2 that have played 10 games. I realize IU and Michigan will have an extra game in there and will make theirs seem harder, but we were basing it on RIGHT NOW. Either way, it wouldn't change much. If you like you can subtract one from each of IU and Michigan and that would be 9 for them. Here are the results....


WISCY: 9 games played, 3 games against Top 7 (1 road game)

Maryland: 9 games played, 5 games against Top 7 (4 road games)


OSU: 9 games played, 4 games against Top 7 (1 road game)


MSU: 9 games played, 4 games against Top 7 (1 road game)


Purdue: 9 games played, 4 games against Top 7 (1 road game)


IU: 10 games played, 6 against Top 7 (4 road games)


Michigan: 10 games played, 4 games against Top 7 (3 road games)



As you can see, some of those teams have had a rough way to go and others not so much. Two things really stand out above all else though. First, Wiscy has had an absolutely atrocious schedule compared to the other teams. I personally find it NOT a coincidence that the best team just happens to have the easiest schedule of any team, and its not even close. It gets even worse, but we will get to that later. I know some will say that they didnt know who would be the best 7, but lets be honest, other than IU, its pretty accurate to what they thought it would be.

Speaking of IU, thats the other thing that stands out like a red thumb. IU has EASILY had the hardest schedule thus far as of today. 6 of our first 10 against the Top 7, with 4 of them being road games. I'm not sure about other teams as I havent looked it up yet, but IU's schedule is even tougher when you consider that of those 6 games so far, 5 of them were against the Top 4 teams. Of those 5, 3 were on the road (Wiscy, MSU, and OSU).

Okay so then we thought that maybe Wiscys schedule gets a LOT harder in the 2nd half right? Well...wrong. I mention Wiscy because they are the best team and somehow they end up with the single easiest schedule I've probably ever seen in my 30 years of watching IU. Almost makes you wonder if the league was making sure they secured Wiscy getting a number 1 seed in the tourney. Just saying lol. So here is how each teams schedules finish out....


WISCY: 3 more against Top 7, 2 on the road

Maryland: 3 more against Top 7, all at home

OSU: 5 more againt Top 7, 3 on the road

MSU: 5 more against Top 7, 3 on the road

PU: 4 more against Top 7, 3 on the road

IU: 4 more against Top 7, 1 on the road

UM: 4 more against Top 7, 2 on the road



Looking at those numbers, the biggest thing again that stands out is that Wiscys schedule surprisingly doesnt really get any tougher except for 1 more road game than their first 9 games. Most teams seem to even out for the most part. Interestingly, based on just these numbers and using top 7, IU clearly ends the season with the single hardest schedule of any conference team. I'll just post the totals. Total conference games against the CURRENT Top 7....


Wiscy: 6 games against top 7, 3 on the road

OSU: 9 games against Top 7, 4 road games

Maryland: 8 games against Top 7, 4 road games

MSU: 9 games against Top 7, 4 road games

PU: 8 games against Top 7, 4 road games

IU: 10 games against Top 7, 5 road games

UM: 8 games against Top 7, 5 road games


So as you can see, Wiscy finished the year with only 6 games against the current Top 7, with only 3 of those on the road. Two-thirds of Wiscys 18 games are against the BOTTOM 7 teams currently. I don't know about you all, but I find that a bit pathetic and I find it hard to believe that was an accident. IU finished out with the most games against the current top 7 than anyone, a whopping 10 games. Over half! Not to mention 5 of those are road games, also the most road games of anyone other than Michigan.

I guess part of my point is this. I'm with alot of you that I'm not sure Crean is the guy to get us back to the top and keep us there. I question his sub patterns, his recruiting is just odd. He might be the worst coach I've ever seen about putting together a complete team at all positions. I'm not here to argue that so please dont even bring that up. Bottom line is, THIS is our team. No matter what, THIS is our team now. We can't change that. So going on that and that alone, no matter what we think of his shortcomings, its hard to argue that he hasn't done a helluva job with this team. Heck, those predictions were when people planned on us having Davis AND Perea both. Last game Blackmon didnt play. NO ONE on this forum wouldve predicted us being 6-4, and that was WITH those guys healthy. We have had the single toughest start to the season than ANY team by far. I think its time people cut him some slack and at least for now, stop with the replacement talk. Whether you think it or not, he has EARNED at least that much from us as IU fans. For now. I mean cmon, you're picking the absolute worst time to try and make your case to get rid of him, even if I agree on his downfalls as a coach.

This post was edited on 2/4 9:02 PM by THEHOOSIER

This post was edited on 2/4 9:23 PM by THEHOOSIER

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Interesting.

I'd like to add to your thoughts.

I measure SOS a little differently. This isn't just the top 7, so the quality of your "scrub" games is still important. But the results are similar. I have two separate but related formulas. Here they are (forgive the formatting; Rivals sucks):

Team SOS Rank SOS2 Rank
Wiscy -1.74 13 -1.55 13
OSU -0.96 11 -0.62 10
MSU -2.00 14 -1.73 14
PU 0.19 6 0.33 3
Ind 0.44 3 0.15 5
Mary 0.09 7 -0.14 7
Iowa 4.85 1 4.20 1
UM 0.41 4 0.12 6
Minny -0.86 10 -0.96 11
PSU -0.10 8 -0.28 9
Ill -0.99 12 -1.01 12
Neb -0.15 9 -0.19 8
NW 1.27 2 0.94 2
RU 0.27 5 0.18 4

The numbers represent points. So, essentially, Wisconsin has faced an average opponent that is between 1.55 and 1.74 points per game worse than an average B1G team. You'll note that Iowa and Northwestern have been screwed worse than us, but one of my two metrics agrees with you - in the top division, our schedule has been worse. Both of my ratings disagree with you a bit with regards to Purdue. I imagine this is because PU's home games have been tough, or they have faced the tougher teams in the bottom half, or a combination. Otherwise, my stats agree with your assessment that Wiscy and MSU - and to a lesser extent, OSU - have gotten off easy, so far.

Either way, I think the conclusion is the same: IU's performance has been against a better-than-average set of conference opponents so far. Things do get better. Although there are no gimmes, I have us as underdogs in only one game (Maryland), and 4+ point favorites in four of them (Michigan, Minnesota, Rutgers, Iowa).

goat

 

[THEHOOSIER]

Very true, although I'd add..

that as most of us know, whichever team does the best against the Top half of the conference is the team that will win the B1G about 99.9 percent of the time. The LESS games you get stuck with against those top half, the better off you are. The better your chances of winning the B1G.


This post was edited on 2/4 10:06 PM by THEHOOSIER

 

[Frankie611]

I don't know that anyone gets to play the victim after the fact. Iowa, Nebraska, and Minny were all predicted in the top half of the conference in various polls. Wisky played Iowa twice, which I assume are two games you do not have on your breakdown. IU actually had one of the "easier" schedules based on preseason predictions. Which you and I both know are typically way off (and have been way off this year).

I see your point, and it will be very troubling as the NCAA bids come out. Schedules will play a huge role in it. Unless they add conference games to the schedule you have to question if there will ever be a true conference champion again. I could see us going to 20 games which would help.

 

[THEHOOSIER]

I'll repost my response to the same thing said on premium..

I looked up what the average Top 4 predictions were for 6 different publications, including ESPNs as well. The average median for the Top 4 were as follows, and in no particular order. I also used the Top 4 because like you said, there was alot of variance in the 5 to 7 slots. This Top 4 was most consistent of any order at the top.

Wisconsin
OSU
MSU
Nebraska


Get this...I looked up Wiscys schedule for the entire season.Since Wisy is one of those top 4, I used the average 5th place team according to the average publication, Michigan. Of their 18 games, only 5 are against THOSE other preseason Top 4 teams! Lol! Wow! That is unreal, and DEFINITELY wreaks of an intentional setup. Wait, it gets better! Of those 4 teams, 2 of them were against Nebraska. Nebraska was the 4th place team in the Top 4, below all of the other ones on average rankings predictions. The other 3 are home against MSU, a road game at UM, and away at OSU the last game of the year. IU wouldve had 6 games against that same original 4, NOT including Michigan. As it turns out, Wiscys schedule was supposed to be even easier than it is now, which is horrendous. So it would seem that you're incorrect in thinking an intentional cupcake scheduling isnt possible. On a side note, IU's schedule got even tougher than it was supposed to be lol.

This post was edited on 2/4 10:55 PM by THEHOOSIER

This post was edited on 2/4 10:57 PM by THEHOOSIER

 

[BigAppleBucky]

Of course teams that haven't played Wisconsin tend to have better records than the teams which have.

Within the limitations imposed by having two extra teams in the league, the Badgers have played the reverse of their 2013/14 schedule this season.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Whoa.

You are right that the unbalanced schedule has a huge effect, but it's not intentional. Scheduling is based on a rotating formula. Obviously it had to be modified starting this year, but for the most part, Wisconsin simply got lucky.

 

[THEHOOSIER]

Yeah, thats what they say..

but show me proof. Show me the numbers and definite rotation that they do on this. Im not saying you arent right, but no one seems to be able to find the exact, certain "formula" they are using. Is there a certain rotation thats been noticed or proven?

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

It's there.

If you want to look at the schedules, every team plays all the other teams te same number of times over X number of years. Now that we have fourteen teams, each team will have 8 single and 5 double games per year. This means every 13 years we will play every team 18 times, 9 home and 9 away.

 

[THEHOOSIER]

Which means as long as they meet the 18 in 13 year requirement..

they can still rotate it around to best fit certain teams having an easy way to go. They don't necessarily have to go in a certain order, just so long as they meet the 18 games in that time frame, 9 home, 9 away. It ties there hands A LITTLE bit, but it can easily be manipulated. Furthermore, if there truly is a rotation over a 13 year period, then is there a certain starting point to that rotation? If there isnt a known starting point to the rotation, then how is anyone to know that they woudve played 9 home and 9 away within that period? Do these Universities have calendars or something that show when it started over? For example...say...2000 to 2013 would be a rotation, then it starts over again right? IS there a starting point to the rotation? Do the college keep that info somewhere? If not, it would be easy for the B1G to just say...you're wrong, the rotation didnt start in 2000. Then they could schedule however they please.

This post was edited on 2/4 11:20 PM by THEHOOSIER

This post was edited on 2/4 11:32 PM by THEHOOSIER

 

[Tony20]

Whether football or basketball Wisconsin has had the EASIEST...

road of any Big 10 school over the last couple of year's and this year. In fact....they dodge Sparty, Michigan, Ohio St, Penn St again this upcoming year in football.

Alvarez definitely has photos of Delany somewhere.

 

[C_Point]

W will have played the bottom 3 (one win each) 6 times.

Pretty nice when about 35% of your conf. schedule are gimmies.

Of the top 7, they play only Iowa twice and skip OSU altogether >. The game isn't listed on Rivals W page. The only competitive road games will be @ Iowa (who they beat by 22) @ Michigan and @ Maryland.

I don't regard this as a conspiracy but ya gotta admit, if you're a Wisconsin fan it's a beauty of a schedule.



This post was edited on 2/5 9:42 AM by C_Point

 

[RealHoosier]

Iowa isn't in the current top 7

The current top 7 is, in my opinion, the beat teams in the bigten
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[C_Point]

Re: Iowa isn't in the current top 7

they're 4 - 4, Illinois is 5 - 5

I won't quibble.

 

[Guy_Fawkes]

Courier New is your friend.

Team SOS Rnk SOS2 Rnk
Wis -1.74 13 -1.55 13
OSU -0.96 11 -0.62 10
MSU -2.00 14 -1.73 14
Pur 0.19 06 0.33 03
Ind 0.44 03 0.15 05
Mar 0.09 07 -0.14 07
Iow 4.85 01 4.20 01
Mic 0.41 04 0.12 06
Min -0.86 10 -0.96 11
PSU -0.10 08 -0.28 09
Ill -0.99 12 -1.01 12
Neb -0.15 09 -0.19 08
NtW 1.27 02 0.94 02
Rut 0.27 05 0.18 04








This post was edited on 2/5 8:34 AM by Guy_Fawkes

 

[jsig]

OK. Nice that the sched is starting to look favorable vs the others in the league but it is still no given that IU wins out at home or beats the bottom 7 teams in their house. I do think their chances are good of getting to 20 wins and maybe even pick up another win or 2 in the B1G tourney and an NCAA bid. I don't care right now if they win ugly against the bottom 7 teams. Just get the W's.

 

[THEHOOSIER]

Oh no doubt. They still have to play the games..


no team just hands out easy victories. The point is, IU has had the toughest schedule in the conference so far. Things get alittle more favorable after the Maryland game. No reason at all that IU shouldn't have a very good shot at finishing out 6-1 in their last 7.

 

[RealHoosier]

Yeah and neither one is in the top 7

Just saying lol
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[SalomeBadger]

Nothing Wisconsin can do about the schedule in front of it, except play the games. It wouldn't be a Big Ten basketball season if no one was complaining about the unbalanced schedule. I imagine we'll be having this conversation again next year. Wisconsin might be the focus again, or it'll be someone else. But it WILL be someone.

On the other hand, there's a lot Wisconsin can do about its nonconference schedule, and as usual, it was one of the more challenging nonconference schedules any Big Ten team played. Three true road games, which is more than any other Big Ten team, and three more than IU played.

 

[THEHOOSIER]

Oh I agree...

it isnt just about Wiscy, they just happened to be the ones who benefited MAJORLY this year. Just to show you how bad Wiscys conference schedule is....Wiscy had a badass preseason schedule, I agree. IU's was okay, but not near as good as Wiscys. Yet IU is 26th in SOS right now after 10 conference games. Wiscy is 24th, only 2 ahead of IU. As tough as their preseason was, it just shows you how bad their conference schedule has been.

 

[tippiwoo]

Re: Oh I agree...

It also hurts Wisconsin's SOS because Wisconsin can't play Wisconsin. (I know that sounds foolish, but it is true) Wisconsin on someone's schedule boosts their SOS.