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CFB Projection (updated)

daddyhoosier

daddyhoosier

Junior
Aug 31, 2019
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iufb.net
updated 12:48 AM

Outright Ranking:

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. SMU
8. Ohio St
9. Indiana
10. Boise St
11. Miami
12. Alabama
13. Arizona State
14. South Carolina

Re-ranking:

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise St
5. Penn St
6. Notre Dame
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. Ohio St
10. Indiana
11. Miami
12. Arizona State

Clemson can still get in by beating SMU, if that happens basically just switch them out with Miami. I predict Miami will be 11th as a place-holder (in case Clemson wins)
Tulane and UNLV are still alive to supplant Boise St
 
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daddyhoosier said:
Outright Ranking:

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. Indiana
8. SMU
9. Ohio St
10. Boise St
11. Miami
12. Alabama
13. South Carolina

Re-ranking:

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise St
5. Penn St
6. Notre Dame
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. Indiana
10. Ohio St
11. Miami
12. Arizona State

Clemson can still get in by beating SMU, if that happens basically just switch them out with Miami
Tulane and UNLV are still alive to supplant Boise St
Click to expand...

I'd say 5. Tennessee, 6. UGA 7. SMU 8.
OSU 9. IU
 
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td75 said:
So who would we play, at Tennessee?
Click to expand...
That's not going to happen.

The hosting teams are going to be the Big Ten runner up (PSU/Oregon), the SEC runner up (Georgia/Texas), ND and OSU.

PSU is the weakest of those teams so we should be rooting for a 6/11 matchup against them.

If we win in Happy Valley then we would play the 3 seed (SMU/Clemson).
 
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So IU is now ahead of OSU in conference standings? What if Oregon hands PSU a 2nd conference loss in Indy?
 
I doubt they will move OSU below us 10 days after they beat us somewhat soundly.

I'd switch OSU and IU in those rankings. After the championship games, I think we will be the 10 seed behind ND, the BIG champ loser, the SEC champ loser, Tennessee, and OSU. But there's essentially no chance we don't get in.

If Clemson auto qualifies, SMU likely falls below us and it's a wash. The B12 and G5 will get one bid.
 
daddyhoosier said:
What are your rankings?
Click to expand...


(1) Big Ten/SEC Champ
(2) Big Ten/SEC Champ
(3) Big 12/ACC/MWC Champ
(4) Big 12/ACC/MWC Champ
(5) Big Ten/SEC runner up
(6) Big Ten/SEC runner up
(7) Notre Dame
(8) Ohio State
(9) Tennessee
(10) SMU (if loss) or Indiana
(11) Indiana or Alabama
(12) Big 12/ACC/MWC Champ

Sorry, just to clarify, this is the playoff seedings, not the rankings
 
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frikkenfrakken said:
I doubt they will move OSU below us 10 days after they beat us somewhat soundly.

I'd switch OSU and IU in those rankings. After the championship games, I think we will be the 10 seed behind ND, the BIG champ loser, the SEC champ loser, Tennessee, and OSU. But there's essentially no chance we don't get in.

If Clemson auto qualifies, SMU likely falls below us and it's a wash. The B12 and G5 will get one bid.
Click to expand...
Are we certain that SMU would fall below us if losing?

Precedent was set with TCU-Kansas State a few years ago that teams weren't going to be penalized for playing their conference championship games.

The committee is going to have an interesting decision on Miami/Alabama on Tuesday.
 
hoosierfan13 said:
(1) Big Ten/SEC Champ
(2) Big Ten/SEC Champ
(3) Big 12/ACC/MWC Champ
(4) Big 12/ACC/MWC Champ
(5) Big Ten/SEC runner up
(6) Big Ten/SEC runner up
(7) Notre Dame
(8) Ohio State
(9) Tennessee
(10) SMU (if loss) or Indiana
(11) Indiana or Alabama
(12) Big 12/ACC/MWC Champ
Click to expand...
You’re not suggesting ALA gets in at IND’s expense if CLEM wins the ACCCG, correct?

You do raise a great point about the decision the committee makes between ALA and MIA. ALA’s wins are better but their losses are worse (and they have more of them). MIA’s been more consistent.
 
frikkenfrakken said:
I doubt they will move OSU below us 10 days after they beat us somewhat soundly.

I'd switch OSU and IU in those rankings. After the championship games, I think we will be the 10 seed behind ND, the BIG champ loser, the SEC champ loser, Tennessee, and OSU. But there's essentially no chance we don't get in.

If Clemson auto qualifies, SMU likely falls below us and it's a wash. The B12 and G5 will get one bid.
Click to expand...
I
frikkenfrakken said:
I doubt they will move OSU below us 10 days after they beat us somewhat soundly.

I'd switch OSU and IU in those rankings. After the championship games, I think we will be the 10 seed behind ND, the BIG champ loser, the SEC champ loser, Tennessee, and OSU. But there's essentially no chance we don't get in.

If Clemson auto qualifies, SMU likely falls below us and it's a wash. The B12 and G5 will get one bid.
Click to expand...
So:
7 Ohio St
8 Indiana
9 SMU

I can see that for sure. You could very well be right.
 
SRIV94 said:
You’re not suggesting ALA gets in at IND’s expense if CLEM wins the ACCCG, correct?

You do raise a great point about the decision the committee makes between ALA and MIA. ALA’s wins are better but their losses are worse (and they have more of them). MIA’s been more consistent.
Click to expand...
Alabama is not getting in over Indiana, rather they took Miami's spot today, according to betting odds.

We're going to be the 10 seed (SMU beats Clemson) or the 11 seed (Clemson beats SMU), but that's assuming that the committee honors the "we aren't going to penalize you for losing your conference championship game" criteria that they've set in previous playoffs.
 
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frikkenfrakken said:
7. Osu
8. Smu
9. Iu

And I hate this--because if Clemson auto qualifies and SMU drops a spot or 3, we end up back in frigging columbus.
Click to expand...
I was thinking the same thing tonight. Worst part about OSU losing today means we might have to go back to Columbus again.
 
jopajackson said:
I was thinking the same thing tonight. Worst part about OSU losing today means we might have to go back to Columbus again.
Click to expand...

Look at the positives... They're certain to underestimate us when they play us again and their fans might not be as rabid the 2nd time around... If we get up on them early their fans will turn on Day and their own team...
 
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They dropped IU too far last week. Lost AT #2 and the game was closer than the final score. Hopefully they correct back a little. Could we jump OSU? Yes we lost to them at their place but they lost to a team we beat and both at home. Head to head is meaningful but so is record. They may position us for a home game. Losing one game and to another playoff team should earn that. If they want to keep this together they have to be fair. If they try to cram undeserving SEC teams in the other conferences are going to revolt.
 
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Hoosiers Rising said:
They dropped IU too far last week. Lost AT #2 and the game was closer than the final score. Hopefully they correct back a little. Could we jump OSU? Yes we lost to them at their place but they lost to a team we beat and both at home. Head to head is meaningful but so is record. They may position us for a home game. Losing one game and to another playoff team should earn that. If they want to keep this together they have to be fair. If they try to cram undeserving SEC teams in the other conferences are going to revolt.
Click to expand...
You are right that the head to head result is not an absolute. There have been examples in the past when the CFB Playoff Committee has ranked a team ahead of another despite a head to head loss. Almost positive Alabama has enjoyed such treatment. I'm not sure that the committee would do that for Indiana over Ohio State but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
If what Brando said is correct they may try to put Indiana against Oregon or Penn State. They may also try and put Texas and Georgia on opposite sides of the bracket to avoid a third matchup. This is really dumb because it would be an admission that they are not actually ranking based on merit but manipulating things to get the match-ups they want / like. But it is probably what will happen.
 
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An 11-1 team absolutely deserves a home playoff game....I don't give a crap about what the rankings say because they'll somehow concoct a way to keep a two loss Ohio State ahead of Indiana giving the Buckeyes a home playoff game.

I would ❤️ to play Ohio State in Bloomington and beat the doors off their a$$!!
 
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td75 said:
An 11-1 team absolutely deserves a home playoff game....I don't give a crap about what the rankings say because they'll somehow concoct a way to keep a two loss Ohio State ahead of Indiana giving the Buckeyes a home playoff game.

I would ❤️ to play Ohio State in Bloomington and beat the doors off their a$$!!
Click to expand...
How will they deal withPSU and their loss to OSU? I’m sure PSU will be ahead of them since it happened a few weeks earlier. That seems fair especially being their loss was at home.
 
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td75 said:
An 11-1 team absolutely deserves a home playoff game....I don't give a crap about what the rankings say because they'll somehow concoct a way to keep a two loss Ohio State ahead of Indiana giving the Buckeyes a home playoff game.

I would ❤️ to play Ohio State in Bloomington and beat the doors off their a$$!!
Click to expand...
yes the will. all about the $$$ and the donkey shoe seats more jack asses than memorial stadium seats fans.
 
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Yeah, I think we'll be the 10 seed, playing at the SEC CG loser's place, but who knows. They are almost certainly going to move PSU ahead of OSU, despite the result of their head to head, so they might put us up there too, but I doubt it.

They lost at home, but only by 3 with two missed field goals. Might want to see who gets suspended first.
 
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I'm surprised that OSU dropped below both Tennessee and SMU in the Coaches poll. Tennessee has a 14 point loss at Georgia while OSU has a 1 point loss at Oregon. Both have bad losses (Tenn lost to Arkansas, OSU lost to Mich), and quality wins (Tenn beat Bama at home, OSU won at PSU).

I would guess that if PSU loses to Oregon, they'll fall behind OSU given the H2H result. Doing this would create some re-matches that the committee won't necessarily want (OSU-PSU, UGA-Bama). I actually don't hate either re-match.

PSU would have had chances to beat OSU at home and Oregon on a neutral site and lost both in this scenario - they shouldn't be rewarded with a home game for losing to the only (2) ranked teams they played.

Bama would have to prove that their quality win (vs UGA) was not just a fluky 1st half result, and would have to show they can win on the road in the SEC (lost at Vandy, at Tenn, at Okla), while Georgia gets a chance to avenge one of their losses.

ND is extremely fortunate to not have to play a conference championship and face an opponent capable of beating them. And they get rewarded with the 5 seed and the Big 12 Champ and MWC champ for playing no one. The only way they get knocked out of this advantageous spot is if PSU (+3.5) beats Oregon or Georgia (+1) beats Texas.

I think IU is locked into the 10 seed. This only changes if PSU loses bad enough to Oregon that the committee drops them behind us, or Clemson beats SMU but the committee keeps SMU ahead of us for some reason. Neither seems likely. I think IU plays either in Knoxville (Oregon beats PSU) or in Columbus again (PSU beats Oregon).

Big 12 Championship, MWC Championship, SEC Championship should have no impact on our seeding. I doubt they put UGA behind us if they lose to Texas again.

1 Oregon
8 Ohio State
9 Penn State

2 Texas
7 Tennessee
10 Indiana

3 SMU
6 Georgia
11 Alabama

4 Boise State
5 Notre Dame
12 Arizona State
 
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I think it's the following scenarios:

Oregon wins (61% chance) = 10 Indiana at 7 Tennessee
PSU + Texas win (22% chance) = 10 Indiana at 7 Georgia
PSU + Georgia win (17% chance) = 10 Indiana at 7 Notre Dame
 
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hoosierfan13 said:
I'm surprised that OSU dropped below both Tennessee and SMU in the Coaches poll. Tennessee has a 14 point loss at Georgia while OSU has a 1 point loss at Oregon. Both have bad losses (Tenn lost to Arkansas, OSU lost to Mich), and quality wins (Tenn beat Bama at home, OSU won at PSU).

I would guess that if PSU loses to Oregon, they'll fall behind OSU given the H2H result. Doing this would create some re-matches that the committee won't necessarily want (OSU-PSU, UGA-Bama). I actually don't hate either re-match.

PSU would have had chances to beat OSU at home and Oregon on a neutral site and lost both in this scenario - they shouldn't be rewarded with a home game for losing to the only (2) ranked teams they played.

Bama would have to prove that their quality win (vs UGA) was not just a fluky 1st half result, and would have to show they can win on the road in the SEC (lost at Vandy, at Tenn, at Okla), while Georgia gets a chance to avenge one of their losses.

ND is extremely fortunate to not have to play a conference championship and face an opponent capable of beating them. And they get rewarded with the 5 seed and the Big 12 Champ and MWC champ for playing no one. The only way they get knocked out of this advantageous spot is if PSU (+3.5) beats Oregon or Georgia (+1) beats Texas.

I think IU is locked into the 10 seed. This only changes if PSU loses bad enough to Oregon that the committee drops them behind us, or Clemson beats SMU but the committee keeps SMU ahead of us for some reason. Neither seems likely. I think IU plays either in Knoxville (Oregon beats PSU) or in Columbus again (PSU beats Oregon).

Big 12 Championship, MWC Championship, SEC Championship should have no impact on our seeding. I doubt they put UGA behind us if they lose to Texas again.

1 Oregon
8 Ohio State
9 Penn State

2 Texas
7 Tennessee
10 Indiana

3 SMU
6 Georgia
11 Alabama

4 Boise State
5 Notre Dame
12 Arizona State
Click to expand...
No chance PSU drops that far for losing a conference championship game to #1. ND probably jumps them and Texas probably stays ahead of them if they lose to Georgia. But that’s as far as they’ll go
 
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