All the dbm and bailey bashing aside, haven't the pollsters of all stripes shown they're bad at their jobs? Were they ever? What would it take for them to get good? What are they doing (or not doing) wrong?
I tend to think this was them making up for sins of the past and overstating independents switching to GOP this time.All the dbm and bailey bashing aside, haven't the pollsters of all stripes shown they're bad at their jobs? Were they ever? What would it take for them to get good? What are they doing (or not doing) wrong?
I thought polling was good. Most senate races were within margin of error. One complicating factor, some votes were cast 30 days ago but polling moves. That does make it more difficult.All the dbm and bailey bashing aside, haven't the pollsters of all stripes shown they're bad at their jobs? Were they ever? What would it take for them to get good? What are they doing (or not doing) wrong?
I thought polling was good. Most senate races were within margin of error. One complicating factor, some votes were cast 30 days ago but polling moves. That does make it more difficult.
There are Republican pollsters, people convinced other pollsters severely undercount Trump supporters.Okay, then where did dbm and bailey go wrong?
By only sharing outliers.Okay, then where did dbm and bailey go wrong?
Too early to say, but it looks like overall, the polling averages are going to be well within a standard margin of error. Big Red Wave and Surprise Blue Win were both within the realm of possibility, but on the edges of it. Close race but with a clear GOP advantage was right in the middle. So it looks like, overall, the polls underestimated Dems, it doesn't look like it will end up being by a huge amount.All the dbm and bailey bashing aside, haven't the pollsters of all stripes shown they're bad at their jobs? Were they ever? What would it take for them to get good? What are they doing (or not doing) wrong?
Too early to say, but it looks like overall, the polling averages are going to be well within a standard margin of error. Big Red Wave and Surprise Blue Win were both within the realm of possibility, but on the edges of it. Close race but with a clear GOP advantage was right in the middle. So it looks like, overall, the polls underestimated Dems, it doesn't look like it will end up being by a huge amount.
They fell for a very well orchestrated GOP disinformation campaign, where people like Trafalgar and Rasmussen combined with phony unknown pollsters to push a false narrative over a 10 day period where non-partisan polls weren't really releasing any results. They basically filled the void, and if you go back and see the posts linking to tweets from people like Barris it's pretty easy to trace the period in question...Okay, then where did dbm and bailey go wrong?
What is funny is that I've said from the very beginning not to count your chickens before they hatch. II put of the post about Democrats doing better than Republicans in the polls and got a lot of pushback. I've thought it would be close from the beginning.All the dbm and bailey bashing aside, haven't the pollsters of all stripes shown they're bad at their jobs? Were they ever? What would it take for them to get good? What are they doing (or not doing) wrong?
Too early to say, but it looks like overall, the polling averages are going to be well within a standard margin of error. Big Red Wave and Surprise Blue Win were both within the realm of possibility, but on the edges of it.
They tell us our country is 50-50.That kind of makes my point. If the margin of error contains both Big Red Wave and Surprise Blue Win, then the polls don't really tell us much, do they?
And neither half cares about what the other thinks or wants.... sad.They tell us our country is 50-50.
And neither half cares about what the other thinks or wants.... sad.
All the dbm and bailey bashing aside, haven't the pollsters of all stripes shown they're bad at their jobs? Were they ever? What would it take for them to get good? What are they doing (or not doing) wrong?