2025 Markets

[snarlcakes]

@ribbont what are your thoughts on bonds, rates, and inflation the next 12 months?

 

[ribbont]

@ribbont what are your thoughts on bonds, rates, and inflation the next 12 months?

Hard to say with Trump coming in. But I've never thought the Fed would cut rates as quickly as many thought. I was surprised at the first 50 basis point cut. My thought was Fed would be too slow to cut and screw up the economy like it did in 2018 and 2021.

With that, I think the Fed will screw this up and not cut much in 2025. Yields will stay elevated throughout the year. Stocks will be slightly higher and inflation will decline.

Why I think that is because I think the freebies will stop, specifically student debt relief.

People says tariffs will increase inflation but Trump wants to lower the Corp tax rate, so those will offset to some extent.

Well, that's about enough. I may be 100% wrong but I don't trust the Fed. They did guide us into a soft landing so they get kudos for that. Not easy when the Biden admin keeps spending like there's no tomorrow.