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BIG predictions.

There's no reason for Wisconsin to be that high.

I didn't read his method but they made no personnel changes. They do return players who had injuries, but those players had very low efficiency stats and the players that took their places in the lineup had better.

Bo Ryan isn't walking through that door, Gard is no Bo Ryan and they just don't have much talent beyond Happ.

Look at it this way, we finished 6th and added a top ten class, including a lottery pick. While losing 3 players who never fully developed. They finished 9th with a mostly veteran team and added no one of importance and yet they're projected 2nd?

Something doesn't add up .. I'm assuming he used previous years avg efficiency as his model and Wisconsin's still has the Bo affect added in.

They should be mid pack ..
 
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There's no reason for Wisconsin to be that high.

I didn't read his method but they made no personnel changes. They do return players who had injuries, but those players had very low efficiency stats and the players that took their places in the lineup had better.

Bo Ryan isn't walking through that door, Gard is no Bo Ryan and they just don't have much talent beyond Happ.

Look at it this way, we finished 6th and added a top ten class, including a lottery pick. While losing 3 players who never fully developed. They finished 9th with a mostly veteran team and added no one of importance and yet they're projected 2nd?

Something doesn't add up .. I'm assuming he used previous years avg efficiency as his model and Wisconsin's still has the Bo affect added in.

They should be mid pack ..
Yep I have no idea where this love fest for Wisconsin is coming from but they have instant impact guys coming in at least on paper and they were terrible last year. Gard has proven nothing at this point. I would switch Michigan and Wisconsin at the very least and maybe even put them at around 6th.
 
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Don't mock me too much but.... I like the gophers first six, a lot. I think they will surprise if they can for once stay relatively drama and injury free (no sex tapes, beating up girlfriends, raping coeds, etc).

I also think Nebraska should be top four. Their top 4 is as good as any and their average age of 30. Lol
 
Don't mock me too much but.... I like the gophers first six, a lot. I think they will surprise if they can for once stay relatively drama and injury free (no sex tapes, beating up girlfriends, raping coeds, etc).

I also think Nebraska should be top four. Their top 4 is as good as any and their average age of 30. Lol
Man I just don;t see it, there's nothing in the numbers last year or even the year before that says top six. I still say the previous year was a fluke caused by a timely and fortuitous schedule and some unearned hype. Numbers mirror that view.
 
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There's no reason for Wisconsin to be that high.

I didn't read his method but they made no personnel changes. They do return players who had injuries, but those players had very low efficiency stats and the players that took their places in the lineup had better.

Bo Ryan isn't walking through that door, Gard is no Bo Ryan and they just don't have much talent beyond Happ.

Look at it this way, we finished 6th and added a top ten class, including a lottery pick. While losing 3 players who never fully developed. They finished 9th with a mostly veteran team and added no one of importance and yet they're projected 2nd?

Something doesn't add up .. I'm assuming he used previous years avg efficiency as his model and Wisconsin's still has the Bo affect added in.

They should be mid pack ..
Yeah, they haven’t recruited well the last few years. It will catch up to them this season. May be bottom half of BIG.
 
Don't mock me too much but.... I like the gophers first six, a lot. I think they will surprise if they can for once stay relatively drama and injury free (no sex tapes, beating up girlfriends, raping coeds, etc).

I also think Nebraska should be top four. Their top 4 is as good as any and their average age of 30. Lol
fwiw -

There's four teams that may surprise, one is Minnesota if everything clicks. Too many ifs though, The others in the same boat are OSU, Illinois, and if Fran doesn't Fran up Iowa again, Iowa.

OSU I think and only because of Holtman's team building skills and use of roles is the most likely.

Last year Fran went double post having Garza(mostly) or Cook make ballhandlig decisions, only played two real ball handlers at an Iowa pace and then complained about too many TO's. Derp...

With Crean gone I can't decide who is the worst, McCaffery or Turgeon. By the numbers it's Turgeon.
 
Man I just don;t see it, there's nothing in the numbers last year or even the year before that says top six. I still say the previous year was a fluke caused by a timely and fortuitous schedule and some unearned hype. Numbers mirror that view.

I should clarify I wouldn't bet top six in the conference, just that I've seen them predicted on different boards at the bottom like on this guy's list (they are second to last here). I like their top six players is what I meant.

I've always liked, okay have excused Baby Pitino because the drama has been ridiculous during his tenure and I don't 100% lay it at his feet. One year he kicked off three kids because they smacked their girlfriend's around (one was a projected starter, the other was an anticipated transfer).

Then Mason and McBrayer posted a sex tape three years ago and we're kicked off.

Then of course last year Lynch was accused of sexually assaulting another coed and Coffey (their highest recruit in a while) went down for pretty much the entire big ten season, after losing 6'9" Eric Curry at the start of the year.

Coffey is back for his junior year. Curry is also back. Jordan Murphy might end up the schools all time leading scorer and one of it's top rebounders. He's a potential first team all conference. McBrayer is a top 100 shooting guard. Isaiah Washington was a top 40ish PG going into his sophomore season. I love their top 40 four star freshman 6'10" Daniel Oturu. He beat (and out played) 5 star Tre Jones for the state title.

Anyway, they have some talent. Similar to Penn State last year talent.

Worst coach in my mind is Turgeon with Fran a close second. Fran reminds me of Crean even though he actually played the game and is supposed to be crazy intelligent. Fran seems to have underperformed a lot. The fact that he barely made the tourney when he had a mini golden age of Iowa recruits pass through (even with missing on Barnes and Paige he still got Woodbury, Gesell, Jok, Gatens, Ogelsby, Uthof...the Iowa Barnstormers had a great AAU run early in the decade but Fran did nothing with it).

Turgeon has never done much for me either and he kept getting promoted after sucking the wind out of the program he was last at...so I don't get it. He left Wichita State barren and it took Marshall a couple years to recover, and he has blown Turgeon out of the water of course now. He left A and M a mess and he's underachieved at Maryland.
 
fwiw -

There's four teams that may surprise, one is Minnesota if everything clicks. Too many ifs though, The others in the same boat are OSU, Illinois, and if Fran doesn't Fran up Iowa again, Iowa.

OSU I think and only because of Holtman's team building skills and use of roles is the most likely.

Last year Fran went double post having Garza(mostly) or Cook make ballhandlig decisions, only played two real ball handlers at an Iowa pace and then complained about too many TO's. Derp...

With Crean gone I can't decide who is the worst, McCaffery or Turgeon. By the numbers it's Turgeon.
Yes, but you can't discount how mad Fran gets. That has to count for something, right? LOL

QtkftTP.0.jpg
 
I should clarify I wouldn't bet top six in the conference, just that I've seen them predicted on different boards at the bottom like on this guy's list (they are second to last here). I like their top six players is what I meant.

I've always liked, okay have excused Baby Pitino because the drama has been ridiculous during his tenure and I don't 100% lay it at his feet. One year he kicked off three kids because they smacked their girlfriend's around (one was a projected starter, the other was an anticipated transfer).

Then Mason and McBrayer posted a sex tape three years ago and we're kicked off.

Then of course last year Lynch was accused of sexually assaulting another coed and Coffey (their highest recruit in a while) went down for pretty much the entire big ten season, after losing 6'9" Eric Curry at the start of the year.

Coffey is back for his junior year. Curry is also back. Jordan Murphy might end up the schools all time leading scorer and one of it's top rebounders. He's a potential first team all conference. McBrayer is a top 100 shooting guard. Isaiah Washington was a top 40ish PG going into his sophomore season. I love their top 40 four star freshman 6'10" Daniel Oturu. He beat (and out played) 5 star Tre Jones for the state title.

Anyway, they have some talent. Similar to Penn State last year talent.

Worst coach in my mind is Turgeon with Fran a close second. Fran reminds me of Crean even though he actually played the game and is supposed to be crazy intelligent. Fran seems to have underperformed a lot. The fact that he barely made the tourney when he had a mini golden age of Iowa recruits pass through (even with missing on Barnes and Paige he still got Woodbury, Gesell, Jok, Gatens, Ogelsby, Uthof...the Iowa Barnstormers had a great AAU run early in the decade but Fran did nothing with it).

Turgeon has never done much for me either and he kept getting promoted after sucking the wind out of the program he was last at...so I don't get it. He left Wichita State barren and it took Marshall a couple years to recover, and he has blown Turgeon out of the water of course now. He left A and M a mess and he's underachieved at Maryland.

2016-17 should have gotten Turgeon fired. How do you finish 22-11 with Melo Trimble, Kevin Huerter, Justin Jackson, Dion Wiley and Damonte Dodd?
 
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fwiw -

There's four teams that may surprise, one is Minnesota if everything clicks. Too many ifs though, The others in the same boat are OSU, Illinois, and if Fran doesn't Fran up Iowa again, Iowa.

OSU I think and only because of Holtman's team building skills and use of roles is the most likely.

Last year Fran went double post having Garza(mostly) or Cook make ballhandlig decisions, only played two real ball handlers at an Iowa pace and then complained about too many TO's. Derp...

With Crean gone I can't decide who is the worst, McCaffery or Turgeon. By the numbers it's Turgeon.
Lol;)
 
Fran and Iowa missed out on home state Carton.
 
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Some B1G coaches on the hot seat after this season including Fran.
 
I think Fran is safe until his kids get through. So that's another five years.

Plus they can spin it that he's a relative success...like Painter.

Turgeon is who I'd put money on the next coach to go. Baby Pitino if he has another bad and drama filled year.

Miles maybe if they have a bad year with who he has returning.
 

Nothing too wacky as far as I'm concerned. I really like the site! Thanks for posting. Fwiw, I've updated my rosters and included comments on each team.

https://thediaperdandy.blogspot.com/p/big-ten-18-19.html

Wisconsin seems to be a bit divisive this season. I think the Badgers will be pretty good, but I think where they ultimately finish will be reflective of how good the Big 10 turned out to be.

I think the BIG has a number of teams that seem to be a year away from a peak. Some of them will likely begin the peaking process this season and turn out to be very good, while others develop more slowly. If Wisconsin finishes in the top 3, it may well be because a few of the more talented teams really were a year away. Either way, I think Wisconsin is an NCAA Tournament team, but one with a high floor and low ceiling.

I like the frosh PG Tai Strickland! He's rated a 3-star by the big three services, but his mix-tape will blow you away. Reminds me of when I first saw tape of Oladipo on-line, and even better than that really. Strickland's low-lights must be pretty low to drag him down to a 3-star.
 

Overall, without crimson-colored glasses, MSU looks to be the only top 10 Big Ten team. On the other hand, Rutgers is the only team you can look at and say "They'll really suck".

Wisconsin and Iowa are significantly overrated.

I think NW is slightly underrated. I like the addition of Taylor, and also think they'll get a lot out of the freshmen Nance & Kobb.

OSU and Minnesota are significantly underrated.

Nebraska is a tough one. Their 1-4 are pretty darn good......their 5-13 may be the worst in the BT.

I give IU, Michigan, OSU & Purdue coach points. I give Rutgers coach points and still have them last. I subtract coach points at MD, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota. Pitino is a good coach, but his team has to be voted most likely to rape & pillage. If they can avoid that they could be very good.

I would call it: MSU; IU; Michigan; Minnesota; Maryland, Nebraska; Purdue; OSU; Iowa; Wisconsin; Northwestern; Illinois; PSU; Rutgers
 
Tie for most likely to Rape and Pillage: Minnesota and (MSU) Molest State University. Too much turmoil at East Lansing. Maryland under Federal Investigation.
 
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Overall, without crimson-colored glasses, MSU looks to be the only top 10 Big Ten team. On the other hand, Rutgers is the only team you can look at and say "They'll really suck".

Wisconsin and Iowa are significantly overrated.

I think NW is slightly underrated. I like the addition of Taylor, and also think they'll get a lot out of the freshmen Nance & Kobb.

OSU and Minnesota are significantly underrated.

Nebraska is a tough one. Their 1-4 are pretty darn good......their 5-13 may be the worst in the BT.

I give IU, Michigan, OSU & Purdue coach points. I give Rutgers coach points and still have them last. I subtract coach points at MD, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota. Pitino is a good coach, but his team has to be voted most likely to rape & pillage. If they can avoid that they could be very good.

I would call it: MSU; IU; Michigan; Minnesota; Maryland, Nebraska; Purdue; OSU; Iowa; Wisconsin; Northwestern; Illinois; PSU; Rutgers

That's close to what I would guess. Maybe flip MD and MN, and hopefully MSU and IU!
 
Yes, but you can't discount how mad Fran gets. That has to count for something, right? LOL

QtkftTP.0.jpg
Great job. The only way your graphic could be better would be to link each of those Franconditions to video of Fran in action at each level of Franhood. I assume Francom 1 has something to do with a chair. He's had the whole off-season to practice, so Fran-watching might hit new heights next season.
 
Not really .. Painter doesn't over or under achieve.

I don't know, last year's team may have overachieved. Who was their highest rated guy, and how many top 100 kids did they have? Maybe only Haas, who I think was around 80ish? I thought V Edwards was just out of the top 100 and don't recall where Carsen was. But to have that team in first most of the year, I think was good coaching and overachieving. Thompson and Mathias probably didn't even have any other B10 offers? He put that team together well and they played well together. Of course it was a down B10.... sorry Gene, it just was!
 
I don't know, last year's team may have overachieved. Who was their highest rated guy, and how many top 100 kids did they have? Maybe only Haas, who I think was around 80ish? I thought V Edwards was just out of the top 100 and don't recall where Carsen was. But to have that team in first most of the year, I think was good coaching and overachieving. Thompson and Mathias probably didn't even have any other B10 offers? He put that team together well and they played well together. Of course it was a down B10.... sorry Gene, it just was!
It was a good team..regardless of individual talent.
 
I don't know, last year's team may have overachieved. Who was their highest rated guy, and how many top 100 kids did they have? Maybe only Haas, who I think was around 80ish? I thought V Edwards was just out of the top 100 and don't recall where Carsen was. But to have that team in first most of the year, I think was good coaching and overachieving. Thompson and Mathias probably didn't even have any other B10 offers? He put that team together well and they played well together. Of course it was a down B10.... sorry Gene, it just was!
Nope, that would be development of players, not over achieving based on coaching. If looked at from a HS rankings perspective he's developing good teams, and is a plus coach but looked at in a stats vs wins perspective, he finishes just where the stats say he should every year and is an equal coach. He doesn't hurt nor help his teams through his coaching, other than development. Below average recruiter, good team developer, average coach.
 
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Nope, that would be development of players, not over achieving based on coaching. If looked at from a HS rankings perspective he's developing good teams, and is a plus coach but looked at in a stats vs wins perspective, he finishes just where the stats say he should every year and is an equal coach. He doesn't hurt nor help his teams through his coaching, other than development. Below average recruiter, good team developer, average coach.
You nailed it.
 
Not really .. Painter doesn't over or under achieve.

Since 2008 Purdue ranks #11 in AP Poll appearances, which I thought was very surprising for a school that has landed 8 top 75 players in the 1-and-done era. I think they have been about mid-pack among the top 6 conference schools in recruiting, so a #11 ranking in Top 25 appearances over a 10 year period indicates over achievement of some kind.

They had key late season injuries on their two teams that probably had the best shots of making a deep March run. All in all, I think Painter is at least a little bit underrated. That said, I would tend to want to take a closer look if your coach ratings disagree, because I really like the evaluation methods that you guys use.
 
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Nope, that would be development of players, not over achieving based on coaching. If looked at from a HS rankings perspective he's developing good teams, and is a plus coach but looked at in a stats vs wins perspective, he finishes just where the stats say he should every year and is an equal coach. He doesn't hurt nor help his teams through his coaching, other than development. Below average recruiter, good team developer, average coach.
He is better than below average recruiter.
 
Nope, that would be development of players, not over achieving based on coaching. If looked at from a HS rankings perspective he's developing good teams, and is a plus coach but looked at in a stats vs wins perspective, he finishes just where the stats say he should every year and is an equal coach. He doesn't hurt nor help his teams through his coaching, other than development. Below average recruiter, good team developer, average coach.

I missed this post while looking up my info. That is a good explanation!
 
Since 2008 Purdue ranks #11 in AP Poll appearances, which I thought was very surprising for a school that has landed 8 top 75 players in the 1-and-done era. I think they have been about mid-pack among the top 6 conference schools in recruiting, so a #11 ranking in Top 25 appearances over a 10 year period indicates over achievement of some kind.

They had key late season injuries on their two teams that probably had the best shots of making a deep March run. All in all, I think Painter is at least a little bit underrated. That said, I would tend to want to take a closer look if your coach ratings disagree, because I really like the evaluation methods that you guys use.

He is consistently ranked as an equal every year. when compared to adj rankings based on PER, but when compared to HS rankings, he's a pIus. I never take a one two or three year ranking seriously, but using an eight year window shows trends, and his trend is consistently equal.

Some coaches are consistent, like Crean (bad) and Painter (average) and Ryan (great). Some are bipolar - like Franny Mac and Miles - going from a good year to horrendous in two season regardless of personnel. It's one reason I don't take Nebraska seriously this year, they had their season last year, and Miles track record says he'll implode. Remember when Miles had two good seasons in a row? Me either. Painter is always at 0, not positive, not negative. Fran though is due for a good year.

btw - at last update (adding the two players back, and applying positional +/-) UCLA is now at 27. Alford, who had great ratings at NM, but not at UCLA, will drop them a spot or maybe two, but nothing too drastic.
 
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He is consistently ranked as an equal every year. when compared to adj rankings based on PER, but when compared to HS rankings, he's a pIus. I never take a one two or three year ranking seriously, but using an eight year window shows trends, and his trend is consistently equal.

Some coaches are consistent, like Crean (bad) and Painter (average) and Ryan (great). Some are bipolar - like Franny Mac and Miles - going from a good year to horrendous in two season regardless of personnel. It's one reason I don't take Nebraska seriously this year, they had their season last year, and Miles track record says he'll implode. Remember when Miles had two good seasons in a row? Me either. Painter is always at 0, not positive, not negative. Fran though is due for a good year.

btw - at last update (adding the two players back, and applying positional +/-) UCLA is now at 27. Alford, who had great ratings at NM, but not at UCLA, will drop them a spot or maybe two, but nothing too drastic.

BTW, my LA buddy says that you were right about there being some doubt about Shaq's kid and Riley. He says some people tell him nothing to worry about, others say the opposite. Opinion seems to correlate directly with feelings about Alford, so he thinks neither group actually has any idea:)
 
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