B1G Championship Tie Breaker Race

[TMFT]

It's a slow day at the office. So I'm on one today.

Although we're going to crack the nuts and go undefeated and this is moot as to IU, I decided to check out where things stand in the conference championship tiebreakers because there's a decent chance it's going to get used. Also, the head-to-head one is obvious, so I'm going to move down to the Win % of common opponents because that's where the math is.

IU - Overall conference record of conference opponents so far. 16-29 or .359
Still to play: OSU (5-1) & PU (0-6)
Rooting for: Everyone we've beaten to get these numbers up.

OR - Overall conference record of conference opponents so far. 17-27 or .386 (this one surprised me)
Still to play: Wisc. (3-3) & Washington (3-4)

OSU - Overall conference record of conference opponents so far. 20-18 or .526 (also surprised me)
Still to play: NW, IU, & Mich.
Rooting for: them to lose

PSU: Overall conference record of conference opponents so far. 19-20 or .487
Still to play: PU (0-6), Minn. (4-3) & MD (1-5)
Rooting for: Whoever is playing Illinois, USC, Minnesota (except during the PSU game) and for MSU, Nebraska, & NW. Want to see these percentages flip.

Interesting to note that how favorably our schedule compares to Oregon's. Granted, they beat OSU already, but if their Wisconsin & OSU weeks were flipped, they'd be sitting at an opponent record of 15-29 or .341. So ours is going to bump up after we visit Columbus regardless and that's figured in.

I'll update this prior to the Bucket Game when it's going to be a much clearer picture.

 

[Pazhoosier85]

So you are telling me the Oregon BIG SOS is similar to ours. I don't hear a peep about how weak there schedule is.

 

[TMFT]

So you are telling me the Oregon BIG SOS is similar to ours. I don't hear a peep about how weak there schedule is.

weird, ain't it?

 

[kraft cheese+macaroni]

It's a slow day at the office. So I'm on one today.

Although we're going to crack the nuts and go undefeated and this is moot as to IU, I decided to check out where things stand in the conference championship tiebreakers because there's a decent chance it's going to get used. Also, the head-to-head one is obvious, so I'm going to move down to the Win % of common opponents because that's where the math is.

IU - Overall conference record of conference opponents so far. 16-29 or .359
Still to play: OSU (5-1) & PU (0-6)
Rooting for: Everyone we've beaten to get these numbers up.

OR - Overall conference record of conference opponents so far. 17-27 or .386 (this one surprised me)
Still to play: Wisc. (3-3) & Washington (3-4)

OSU - Overall conference record of conference opponents so far. 20-18 or .526 (also surprised me)
Still to play: NW, IU, & Mich.
Rooting for: them to lose

PSU: Overall conference record of conference opponents so far. 19-20 or .487
Still to play: PU (0-6), Minn. (4-3) & MD (1-5)
Rooting for: Whoever is playing Illinois, USC, Minnesota (except during the PSU game) and for MSU, Nebraska, & NW. Want to see these percentages flip.

Interesting to note that how favorably our schedule compares to Oregon's. Granted, they beat OSU already, but if their Wisconsin & OSU weeks were flipped, they'd be sitting at an opponent record of 15-29 or .341. So ours is going to bump up after we visit Columbus regardless and that's figured in.

I'll update this prior to the Bucket Game when it's going to be a much clearer picture.

There would have to be some massive upsets for the tiebreakers to come into play beyond head to head, so I'm not following the logic here.

We beat OSU and Purdue, we're in.

We lose to OSU, they're in (even if they lose to UM).

 

[ElMeson]

No, they’d have 2 loses to our one. If we beat OSU and Purdue we are in. I’d we lose to OSU and they beat UM, they are in. If we lose to OSU but they lose to UM, it becomes a tie breaker between us and Penn St.

 

[ElMeson]

There would have to be some massive upsets for the tiebreakers to come into play beyond head to head, so I'm not following the logic here.

We beat OSU and Purdue, we're in.

We lose to OSU, they're in (even if they lose to UM).

I tried to reply. See my above post.

 

[mobilehoosier]

Good post. Saw that last week. Take out OSU and Oregon looks like us. Go Hoosiers!

 

[YOTHN]

It's a slow day at the office. So I'm on one today.

Although we're going to crack the nuts and go undefeated and this is moot as to IU, I decided to check out where things stand in the conference championship tiebreakers because there's a decent chance it's going to get used. Also, the head-to-head one is obvious, so I'm going to move down to the Win % of common opponents because that's where the math is.

IU - Overall conference record of conference opponents so far. 16-29 or .359
Still to play: OSU (5-1) & PU (0-6)
Rooting for: Everyone we've beaten to get these numbers up.

OR - Overall conference record of conference opponents so far. 17-27 or .386 (this one surprised me)
Still to play: Wisc. (3-3) & Washington (3-4)

OSU - Overall conference record of conference opponents so far. 20-18 or .526 (also surprised me)
Still to play: NW, IU, & Mich.
Rooting for: them to lose

PSU: Overall conference record of conference opponents so far. 19-20 or .487
Still to play: PU (0-6), Minn. (4-3) & MD (1-5)
Rooting for: Whoever is playing Illinois, USC, Minnesota (except during the PSU game) and for MSU, Nebraska, & NW. Want to see these percentages flip.

Interesting to note that how favorably our schedule compares to Oregon's. Granted, they beat OSU already, but if their Wisconsin & OSU weeks were flipped, they'd be sitting at an opponent record of 15-29 or .341. So ours is going to bump up after we visit Columbus regardless and that's figured in.

I'll update this prior to the Bucket Game when it's going to be a much clearer picture.

This is good info. The # of scenarios that can play out here is wild. That PU game kills us does more damage to our SOS than the OSU one helps us. haha Gosh they are awful.

 

[Middawg]

I give Minnesota at least a 40% chance of dropping 30+ at home against Penn St. in a few weeks and TA gives us that early Christmas present.

I give Wisconsin a 25% chance to muck up their home game against Oregon next week enough, especially if weather is a factor, to pull that upset.

I give Northwestern a 5% chance coming off a bye to make it a fourth quarter game against Ohio St. in the friendly confines. Plenty of ghosts on that field, could be a sloppy game

 

[Hoosiers Rising]

This is good info. The # of scenarios that can play out here is wild. That PU game kills us does more damage to our SOS than the OSU one helps us. haha Gosh they are awful.

Yeah we need to drop that.

 

[olympian97]

Nice work on the stats. The way I look at it at this point in the season whoever wins the OSU/IU matchup is in unless the game is within 3 points and many other unlikely factors come into play. If the game had been played in September I think there would be a better argument for the loser if that’s their only loss. I wouldn’t want to get picked over a team that took us to the woodshed or vice versa. I think either way PSU is out as they need OSU to lose at least one game to have a chance. That to me means the winner of the IU/OSU game will play Oregon for the B1G title. If OSU wins against us they will likely finish with 1 loss and have the wins over both PSU and IU as the tie breaker. IU will be the only other undefeated team if we beat OSU assuming we handle business against PU and won’t be in a tiebreaker with OSU or PSU.

The only hope for IU or PSU providing IU loses to OSU is that UM pulls off a stunning upset. If that happens that is the only way they are out of a tiebreaker with us, and IU/PSU will then be in a tiebreaker scenario assuming we both finish with 1 loss. In that case I believe the tiebreaker will come down to who competed against OSU the best along with the other common opponents results.

We are in playoff mode now. All that matters is finding a way to beat OSU in two weeks. Win and we are almost certainly in.