I know. I'm not putting anything more into it than what it actually represents. It's like the mode of any distribution. But it's still a delicious possibility, and not an outlandish one.
Awesome tracker re: voting totals (in real-time)
- Thread starter wiede
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History shows that it is more likely the swing states move in one direction instead of splitting between candidates, so the steadiness of the polls would indicate NC, GA, AZ, FL, and IA going to Biden. That's a big-time wave. The upper midwest is already in Biden's camp.
You’re just effing with us now. You gotta be.
if not, I look forward to seeing you on here next Wednesday. Or maybe even Tuesday night...
Per NYT, 64% of Democrats in Texas have already voted, along with 51% of Republicans and 43% of Independents. Trump leads 47-43 on their topline, but those underlying numbers mean that Trump needs those Independents (many of whom are actually Republican leaners) to get out there and vote.
Looks like we won't know the results of North Carolina for some time.
www.cnn.com
North Carolina can count votes received 9 days after Election Day, Supreme Court says
The Supreme Court on Wednesday allowed the counting of ballots in North Carolina received up to nine days after the election as long as the ballots are postmarked by Election Day, a victory for Democrats in another key state.
www.cnn.com
If my math is right, using those percentages with 80%, if they split the independent mail-ins, Trump has to win 86.8% of the remaining 20%. Obviously there will be more votes total, but my take is Biden’s got Texas in the bag.
I think you might be splitting those independents incorrectly. In most states, "independent" is code for "probably Republican."
I’m not splitting independents according to prediction, just 50-50 for the sake of the math. Do you have any 538 or other prediction on them? We can do the math on that. Or your guestimate.
No, unfortunately, I don't. I just know from previous reading that independents are more likely to be secret Republicans than secret Democrats, and I suspect that to be even more likely in the current climate where people don't want to admit supporting Trump. But that suspicion is obviously worth nothing, so take it with the biggest grain of salt you can find.
Just re-read this. Forget my numbers. To do any math one has to know how many registered A, B, and C.
Considering the polling numbers, it looks like we can assume indies will break 50/50 for purposes of math.
I understand that early voting numbers this year may not tell us a lot, but I have to believe there is some information in there. A state like Texas, where we might see the electorate grow 25-33%, seems to be significant. Also, the great increase in younger voters is a big deal.
I understand what you are saying about independents in general, but hasn’t polling this cycle consistently shown Biden with a large edge over these voters? Biden will win independents right?
I don’t think Biden would last two years and you would have the giggler for the remainder of his term! Independents would take this into consideration.
I think you are confusing "independents" with "informed independents".
Sadly, probably about 75% of people who are considered independents are either:
A) People who have never voted before and therefore don't have a party affiliation yet. (AKA young voters who are likely incredibly naïve)
B) People who are completely uninformed about politics and only vote out of a belief of civic duty.
C) People who think they are informed but are really just easily swayed one way or the other based upon their Facebook feed.
The numbers I saw as of yesterday for Texas, voting totals had already reached 90% of total votes cast in 2016. We shall wait and see how much of this is new vote vs just pushing the same vote early.... but that's a pretty amazing number.
Let's also be clear that basically every Federal election held since 2016 has seen a sizable shift towards Democrats.
This is hilarious and sad at the same time.
The moral is either "don't drag me down in the state where you've NEVER been elected", or "don't shy away from voicing your support of me when you're asked about it point blank in a debate." Or maybe "I'm just an asshole, and this is how I act when I know I'm about to get my butt kicked"...
Can I vote that all 3 are true??
No one can really deny this Trump Effect, for better or worse. Trump has created more voter enthusiasm. Interesting paradox.
Trump wants out of the job, bigly . . . .This is hilarious and sad at the same time.
The moral is either "don't drag me down in the state where you've NEVER been elected", or "don't shy away from voicing your support of me when you're asked about it point blank in a debate." Or maybe "I'm just an asshole, and this is how I act when I know I'm about to get my butt kicked"...
Can I vote that all 3 are true??
No matter how TX turns out, I’m happy to see more people participating in voting. Have you ever heard a republican say that?
OMG.
Trump tells the country that Covid-19 has turned the corner and is no big deal while, at the same time, he downsizes and guts the postal system very quietly, surprising people when they found out, and making them leery of mailing their ballots in. Nonetheless, you pose a question that ignores Trump altogether and acts like Covid-19 is a random thing like lightning striking a tree and starting a forest fire.
Admit it for crying out loud -- Trump is an accelerant. He made it worse.
Young Latinos might be another undercounted factor for Biden, motivated by none other than undocumented immigrants who can’t vote but are getting out the vote.
These young voters can affect elections in all the southwestern states and Texas. Maybe even Florida.
Is he still claiming that Beto was paying busloads of illegal immigrants to vote?
Perhaps but it says a lot to me that Texas and Mon freaking Tana have already passed their 2016 vote total or close to it. Were not talking NJ or Illinois here. Maybe it's all the black and Hispanic women in Montana causing this phenomenon.
And maybe the Black and Hispanic women in Texas, too.
[on edit] Montana turning out in high numbers won't change much . . . unless the additional turnout sends three unexpected EVs to Biden.
Black and Hispanic women turning out in Texas? That might have a major effect on the election, if Texas goes to Biden. 38 unexpected EVs to Biden? Trump would have to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota to compensate . . . good luck with that.
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