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Are this season's results so far changing your opinion on CTC's coaching?

For example, I believe Sagarin begins every season with preliminary rankings based on the wellknown preseason polls.
Nope, he uses history. ie what that program has done in the past for his first preliminary ranking. Kenpom used to input averages for freshman per condensed ranking and position but now just uses another websites ranking as his starting point.

fwiw - Sagarin connects (using only this years results) in late Dec early Jan. Kenpom generally around late Jan.
 
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MD, OK, and Nova are stretching it.

So...some where between 4th and 8th most talent. Yay....go Crean
Maryland has 3 pros and a few d-league/euro pros. We have 2 pros, and a few d-league/euro pros.
 
We agree on most of these concepts, but I don't think there ever will be a way to computerize everything in such a way to eliminate human opinion. For example, I believe Sagarin begins every season with preliminary rankings based on the wellknown preseason polls. Only after 10 games or so, when he deems all the teams "connected," does he start relying on some computer program. But I believes he still gives extra computer-credit for beating a "Top 10" team, which relies at last a little bit on polls.

I think the Northwestern game will start telling us what we need to know about IU. Of course, it's amusing (particularly on the OTF) to see the Crean haters issue one last flurry of posts before the game. The problem is that once anyone commits an opinion to writing, they feel compelled to defend it and never change it regardless of (in this case) how the season ultimately develops.
I find it unlikely my opinion on Crean will change, even if we don't lose another game all season. A fluke championship won't make up for years of crap.

However, if our season ends up better than I expected, I'll add that fact to the mix. If Crean comes back and does it again next year, I'll add that fact. I'm open-minded enough for Crean to prove me wrong. I just don't think there's anything he can do in a single season to change my mind.
 
We agree on most of these concepts, but I don't think there ever will be a way to computerize everything in such a way to eliminate human opinion. For example, I believe Sagarin begins every season with preliminary rankings based on the wellknown preseason polls. Only after 10 games or so, when he deems all the teams "connected," does he start relying on some computer program. But I believes he still gives extra computer-credit for beating a "Top 10" team, which relies at last a little bit on polls.

I think the Northwestern game will start telling us what we need to know about IU. Of course, it's amusing (particularly on the OTF) to see the Crean haters issue one last flurry of posts before the game. The problem is that once anyone commits an opinion to writing, they feel compelled to defend it and never change it regardless of (in this case) how the season ultimately develops.
One last flurry of posts? I've been posting all week. People can beat their chests all they want about the Illinois win -- their prerogative.

But Illinois is a team that is tailor-made for Indiana to destroy. They're one of the worst Big Ten teams I've ever seen at defending the 3 ball, and they rebound very poorly. The one surprise with that game was that Indiana didn't turn the ball over that much.
 
I find it unlikely my opinion on Crean will change, even if we don't lose another game all season. A fluke championship won't make up for years of crap.

However, if our season ends up better than I expected, I'll add that fact to the mix. If Crean comes back and does it again next year, I'll add that fact. I'm open-minded enough for Crean to prove me wrong. I just don't think there's anything he can do in a single season to change my mind.
17 years of data point to him being an under average coach. That's not going to change.
 
17 years of data point to him being an under average coach. That's not going to change.
Probably not. But you wouldn't need 17 years of above-average performance to accept that change did in fact occur. What would it take, do you think? Four or five consecutive years of genuine overperformance to start honestly considering the possibility he learned how to coach?
 
I think the Northwestern game will start telling us what we need to know about IU. Of course, it's amusing (particularly on the OTF) to see the Crean haters issue one last flurry of posts before the game. The problem is that once anyone commits an opinion to writing, they feel compelled to defend it and never change it regardless of (in this case) how the season ultimately develops.

Eh, I dunno about that. I don't think a home game vs. Northwestern will do much in the way of telling us what we need to know about IU this year....at least not as a barometer as to how good IU may or may not be this year. For me, I don't use a good or even great performances for home games against any opponnent outside of...say teams ranked in the top 10, as a measuring stick for how IU stacks up against the field in any given season. On the other hand, whether it seems unfair or not, poor play at home against inferiorly talented teams can often be quite telling.

There's a couple games against higher quality opponents in the upcoming weeks, a couple of them on the road - @Michigan, @MSU - and a home date vs.Iowa (currently ranked #9 both polls) that should be more telling to where the Hoosiers stack up.

But really at the heart of it all, haven't we already really seen everything we need to know as to how Indiana stacks up against the competition this year, and every year for that matter?....At least as long as this one thing remains true -- Tom Crean is our head coach. Isn't that all we REALLY need to know?
 
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Probably not. But you wouldn't need 17 years of above-average performance to accept that change did in fact occur. What would it take, do you think? Four or five consecutive years of genuine overperformance to start honestly considering the possibility he learned how to coach?
Yea thats about right.
 
Nope, he uses history. ie what that program has done in the past for his first preliminary ranking. Kenpom used to input averages for freshman per condensed ranking and position but now just uses another websites ranking as his starting point.

fwiw - Sagarin connects (using only this years results) in late Dec early Jan. Kenpom generally around late Jan.
If that's correct, then using results from prior years with different players would be even more irrelevant than using the preseason polls for the current season, wouldn't it?

In any case, the Sagarin ratings have a distinct element of subjectivity despite the use of computers to tabulate data.
 
If that's correct, then using results from prior years with different players would be even more irrelevant than using the preseason polls for the current season, wouldn't it?

In any case, the Sagarin ratings have a distinct element of subjectivity despite the use of computers to tabulate data.
I could be mistaken, but I don't believe Sagarin's ratings use any subjective measurements. Just like all good rankings, they are pretty much just scoring margin adjusted for schedule strength.
 
One last flurry of posts? I've been posting all week. People can beat their chests all they want about the Illinois win -- their prerogative.

But Illinois is a team that is tailor-made for Indiana to destroy. They're one of the worst Big Ten teams I've ever seen at defending the 3 ball, and they rebound very poorly. The one surprise with that game was that Indiana didn't turn the ball over that much.
Yes, the present flurry has lasted all week, hasn't it?

Tomorrow, we play Northwestern (which almost beat Maryland at Maryland a few days ago) and then we play at Wisconsin on Jan. 26 (a game many Crean opponents confidently say IU can't possibly win). As the season progresses, the opponents are gradually getting tougher, and questions about this years' team will be answered.
 
Yes, the present flurry has lasted all week, hasn't it?

Tomorrow, we play Northwestern (which almost beat Maryland at Maryland a few days ago) and then we play at Wisconsin on Jan. 26 (a game many Crean opponents confidently say IU can't possibly win). As the season progresses, the opponents are gradually getting tougher, and questions about this years' team will be answered.
Who the hell is saying, "We can't possibly beat Wisconsin?"
 
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I could be mistaken, but I don't believe Sagarin's ratings use any subjective measurements. Just like all good rankings, they are pretty much just scoring margin adjusted for schedule strength.
How does Sagarin determine the initial rankings he uses when the season begins, before anyone has played a single game? Certainly not scoring margin.

How is schedule strength determined for the first few weeks of the season, before anyone knows which teams are best? Certainly sounds subjective.
 
Yes, the present flurry has lasted all week, hasn't it?

Tomorrow, we play Northwestern (which almost beat Maryland at Maryland a few days ago) and then we play at Wisconsin on Jan. 26 (a game many Crean opponents confidently say IU can't possibly win). As the season progresses, the opponents are gradually getting tougher, and questions about this years' team will be answered.

IU @ home vs Northwestern should never be a statement game. IU is a 9 point favorite.

@ Wisc this year, and now without Bo Ryan, isnt nearly as daunting. IU will be favored.

Northwestern and Wisconsin will both be in the NIT this year.
The NIT has been the peak for Northwestern.
 
Eh, I dunno about that. I don't think a home game vs. Northwestern will do much in the way of telling us what we need to know about IU this year....at least not as a barometer as to how good IU may or may not be this year. For me, I don't use a good or even great performances for home games against any opponnent outside of...say teams ranked in the top 10, as a measuring stick for how IU stacks up against the field in any given season. On the other hand, whether it seems unfair or not, poor play at home against inferiorly talented teams can often be quite telling.

There's a couple games against higher quality opponents in the upcoming weeks, a couple of them on the road - @Michigan, @MSU - and a home date vs.Iowa (currently ranked #9 both polls) that should be more telling to where the Hoosiers stack up.

But really at the heart of it all, haven't we already really seen everything we need to know as to how Indiana stacks up against the competition this year, and every year for that matter?....At least as long as this one thing remains true -- Tom Crean is our head coach. Isn't that all we REALLY need to know?
I agree that a poor game against Northwestern might be telling and the upcoming games will also be telling. The answers will start rolling in now that the season is progressing (which was implicit in the portion of my post that you boldfaced, i.e., "will start telling us what we need to know about IU").
 
IU @ home vs Northwestern should never be a statement game. IU is a 9 point favorite.

@ Wisc this year, and now without Bo Ryan, isnt nearly as daunting. IU will be favored.

Northwestern and Wisconsin will both be in the NIT this year.
The NIT has been the peak for Northwestern.
You're right that neither of these games will be statement games. But Northwstern and Wisconsin are presently tied in the Big Ten standings with Michigan State. Maybe the Michigan State game will prove not to be a statement game, too.
 
How does Sagarin determine the initial rankings he uses when the season begins, before anyone has played a single game? Certainly not scoring margin.

How is schedule strength determined for the first few weeks of the season, before anyone knows which teams are best? Certainly sounds subjective.
I thought we were talking about after connection. I have no idea how he figures his preseason ratings.
 
I thought we were talking about after connection. I have no idea how he figures his preseason ratings.
Seems to me he begins each season subjectively and then switches to statistics. I don't see how the subjective portion would fail to influence the rest of it. I checked his current rankings and didn't see any explanation of exactly how he does things.

I'll try to find you an example of one of those posts but it may not be tonight.
 
Seems to me he begins each season subjectively and then switches to statistics. I don't see how the subjective portion would fail to influence the rest of it. I checked his current rankings and didn't see any explanation of exactly how he does things.

I'll try to find you an example of one of those posts but it may not be tonight.
Each ranking is independent of the previous day. Once he has enough games in the system, the starting rankings are irrelevant.
 
Timmy we know man.

Anyone who still thinks Crean is the solution shouldn't be able to reproduce.
 
Timmy we know man.

Anyone who still thinks Crean is the solution shouldn't be able to reproduce.

Yup, I'm well aware everyone knows already. I thought I'd play along and post it as a reminder per the request. I may look new because I only have 120 some odd posts and only started showing up over the last month, month and a half really, but I've been following Peegs and the message boards since 1998, roughly 17 years. Of course 13 or 14 of those years were spent without posting privileges. Make one little joke about Sean May needing to watch his back around Bloomington after having just committed to UNC (for his own safety of course) and POOF suddenly you can't post no more. That was '02 I wanna say, and I never bothered asking for reinstatement but kept on as a paying customer and read and followed the boards all these years anyway.

Fast forward thirteen years, new forum interface comes about and somehow, miraculously, that banned gets lifted. Didn't even realize it until a few months ago. I'm sure it was the man himself, Mike Pegram, who decided to randomly lift my forum posting ban, totally unsolicited, and not some glitch in the system during the changeover to the new format that caused the ban to be lifted or anything like that.

Not that anyone asked, nor cares really.

Although, in my defense, this post was induced by a hybrid of Kentucky Bluegrass, Featherbed Bent, and Northern California Sinsemilla :rolleyes:
 
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