April 29 - 2nd wave inevitable. Today - 2nd wave not inevitable

[Cream&Crimson]

Agreed on the early stages. In time that ongoing hysteria fueled by the daily briefings destroyed a shit ton of lives. Now Fauci has reversed course.

I don't think Dr. Fauci has reversed course as much as he has reacted to the latest data he sees and interprets. That guys seems to be completely apolitical. He doesn't need Trump or anyone else to validate him or the successful career he's enjoyed. He's serving his country and the World.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I don't think Dr. Fauci has reversed course as much as he has reacted to the latest data he sees and interprets. That guys seems to be completely apolitical. He doesn't need Trump or anyone else to validate him or the successful career he's enjoyed. He's serving his country and the World.

I know he’s well-intentioned. I think our country is fooked and didn’t need to be with better guidance and leadership. From the masks to the models to the changing course I include him.

 

[bawlmer]

I think widespread contact tracing and testing is a pipe dream that cant be accomplished in this country. We are told there is a large segment of population that will not be able to get an ID to vote, but we are to assume they would comply with a contact tracing app? The "don't tread on me" crowd and "WGAF" party crowd would further complicate those efforts.

The CDC exists for this very purpose, and it has failed miserably. But it would be a different story if COVID killed 20-somethings.

At the ed of the day, I don't think Boomers have room to complain too much. Look at the debt we're leaving those who follow. Not on me and my politics, but it is what it is. h
Hard to complain about the me first attitude of younger generations given the same attitude for the past 40 years in American politics.

 

[sglowrider]

I only disagree with one thing, Shut downs can be pinpointed and not be as blunt but one would need consistent coordinated testing and contact tracing.

Identify hotspots, shut them down, isolate it, test test test.

But as you highlighted in your post, consistent and coordinated are not in Trump's fly by the seat of his full diaper nature.

I think Trump so admit himself. He doesn't like planning. When at Trump ''Organisation'' (oh the irony!) he would just wake up and then see what (opportunities) shows up for the day.

 

[T.M.P.]

I think Trump so admit himself.

He would lie about it, like he does everything else.

 

[cosmickid]

It's one thing to run as a mover and shaker against an extremely polarizing candidate...but it's another thing when the con is out in plain view which we've seen the past four years.

His base is shrinking and he's not reaching out to grow it.

On top of that, he's invigorated a massive base that has been hard for democrats to get to the polls....african American voters. Yeah blaming everything on Obama while coddling with white radicals will do that.

He's a disaster with suburban women, which is another huge faction.

Now due to his utter incompetence of leadership during the biggest crisis of his term (most crisises help an incumbent, Trump is getting exploited as a guy with no stratigic sense who basically said 'you figure it out' which has divided the country more VS galvanized it for a common cause) even more people are realizing he's just a con man. A salesman. Which is good for ratings but not for leadership.

Lastly, his poll numbers are dropping with older voters which is what happens when you push opening the country and come across as if you don't have a plan or a concern for that voting group.

Fox News is trying desperately to fix this for him....you can't go five minutes without them blaming democratic governors for the massive deaths with the elderly right now.

He was in trouble to start but he's in big trouble now IMO.

The biggest problem (or one of them) that Trump faces is the fact that the Dems have extended the playing field. Battleground states now include "reliably Red" states that Trump won in 2016 like GA, FL, NC, AZ, OH, IA in addition to the states we knew could decide things like PA, MI, and WI. The closest thing Trump has to a flippable state is NH- with 4 whole EVs...

And internal GOP polls are showing how much trouble Trump is facing. A private poll commissioned by (GOP Gov) Kemp in Ga, showed Biden leading in NC, and tied in Ga. Last week Lewandoski and Bossie flew to the WH to talk to Trump about how badly he trails in battleground states, and their focus was on FL and AZ.

I think the 2 most obvious candidates to turn Blue are MI and AZ. I think MI is already there, and I think McSally will drag Trump down with her, as she is down double-digits to Mark Kelly. She's never won a statewide race in AZ and already lost to Sinema in 2018. Dems and Independents don't like her, and McCain supporters resent the fact that Ducey appointed her to fill McCain's seat when she was never really an ally of his.

I don't see AZ voters who vote Kelly splitting their ballot to vote for Trump. Trump was so distressed by what Lewandoski said about AZ, that he called Moscow Mitch (who was there for another reason) into the meeting to specifically discuss McSally's problems...

"Bossie and Lewandowski, who served as top aides on Trump’s 2016 effort, complained to the president about his political operation. Trump’s campaign team, in response, decided to rush their Arizona and Florida representatives onto airplanes for a Thursday meeting with the president.

Republicans involved with setting up the Thursday meeting with Trump's state directors said they were taken aback by Bossie and Lewandowski’s warning. They felt the need to mollify Trump, who has been kept abreast of his reelection effort but hasn’t always been aware of the granular, on-the-ground details.

The sequence, which was described by four people familiar with what transpired, offered the latest snapshot of Trump’s angst about his battleground state standing. With just five months until the election, the president has been privately expressing concern about his poll numbers and senior Republicans are openly sounding alarms about his swing state prospects."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/trump-campaign-lewandowski-bossie-283089

 

[TommyCracker]

The biggest problem (or one of them) that Trump faces is the fact that the Dems have extended the playing field. Battleground states now include "reliably Red" states that Trump won in 2016 like GA, FL, NC, AZ, OH, IA in addition to the states we knew could decide things like PA, MI, and WI. The closest thing Trump has to a flippable state is NH- with 4 whole EVs...

And internal GOP polls are showing how much trouble Trump is facing. A private poll commissioned by (GOP Gov) Kemp in Ga, showed Biden leading in NC, and tied in Ga. Last week Lewandoski and Bossie flew to the WH to talk to Trump about how badly he trails in battleground states, and their focus was on FL and AZ.

I think the 2 most obvious candidates to turn Blue are MI and AZ. I think MI is already there, and I think McSally will drag Trump down with her, as she is down double-digits to Mark Kelly. She's never won a statewide race in AZ and already lost to Sinema in 2018. Dems and Independents don't like her, and McCain supporters resent the fact that Ducey appointed her to fill McCain's seat when she was never really an ally of his.

I don't see AZ voters who vote Kelly splitting their ballot to vote for Trump. Trump was so distressed by what Lewandoski said about AZ, that he called Moscow Mitch (who was there for another reason) into the meeting to specifically discuss McSally's problems...

"Bossie and Lewandowski, who served as top aides on Trump’s 2016 effort, complained to the president about his political operation. Trump’s campaign team, in response, decided to rush their Arizona and Florida representatives onto airplanes for a Thursday meeting with the president.

Republicans involved with setting up the Thursday meeting with Trump's state directors said they were taken aback by Bossie and Lewandowski’s warning. They felt the need to mollify Trump, who has been kept abreast of his reelection effort but hasn’t always been aware of the granular, on-the-ground details.

The sequence, which was described by four people familiar with what transpired, offered the latest snapshot of Trump’s angst about his battleground state standing. With just five months until the election, the president has been privately expressing concern about his poll numbers and senior Republicans are openly sounding alarms about his swing state prospects."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/trump-campaign-lewandowski-bossie-283089

Kelly really needs to flip that seat in Arizona, as does Cunningham in NC.

I thought I heard if everything stays constant from 2016 then Biden needs to just flip Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

That being said, Florida is on the table which was not even considered a year ago and would be a death knell if Biden flipped it, which again is why you can't go five minutes on Fox without them claiming Democrat governors are killing people in nursing homes.

 

[TommyCracker]

I only disagree with one thing, Shut downs can be pinpointed and not be as blunt but one would need consistent coordinated testing and contact tracing.

Identify hotspots, shut them down, isolate it, test test test.

But as you highlighted in your post, consistent and coordinated are not in Trump's fly by the seat of his full diaper nature.

That's why we have a team of experts so congratulations, you're on the team. Lol

I still think the shutdown was needed to flatten the curve and to ramp up testing in the beginning but once we could identify and manage it better, definitely use a scalpel instead of a hammer.

Most importantly I would take all the shit and I'd own it, which is what leaders do.

If history says that I was way too overprotective then I could live with that.

I was talking to my righ wing friend and he tries to tell me that the numbers are all lies by the media, the actual death rate is less than 0.3 percent and that all deaths are being counted as covid deaths.

It's critical that we get trend data for this thing.

But more testing means more cases which means the numbers look worse so that isn't an option.

 

[TommyCracker]

I think Trump feels responsibility and has worked hard. I think a crisis needs a real, trained and tested leader, tho, and Trump is not. Among his failures is definitely his inability to communicate that he is leading anyone. I'd also add that buying and distribution of PPE should have been controlled by FEMA.

The sacrifices people have made as a result of the shut downs have not been fairly distributed. What evidence do you have that immediate, universal shutdowns would have benefited anyone? The most strict shutdowns world-wide were instituted in LTC facilities, and still they suffered tremendous losses.

The Governors showed leadership at different times under various circumstances. The career politicians are clearly better at communicating their positions. They are not above criticism for the results in their states, as a few have had serious losses while most have managed much better.

I think widespread contact tracing and testing is a pipe dream that cant be accomplished in this country. We are told there is a large segment of population that will not be able to get an ID to vote, but we are to assume they would comply with a contact tracing app? The "don't tread on me" crowd and "WGAF" party crowd would further complicate those efforts.

Where is the infrastructure to administer 300 million reliable tests a couple times a week, let alone process the results? I mean I like the ideas, but respectfully, you're no Dr. Fauci. I think what we want to be able to do in a perfect world, what you'd think we'd ought be able to do by God, and the reality of what we are capable of doing as a nation are very far apart.

Still, I'd vote for you over either guy running for POTUS this year. Thanks for your reply.

Thanks for your vote! Lol

In the beginning after watching what it was doing to Asia, the Middle East and Europe....I'm still probably pulling the safety breaker and shutting everything down to try to turn the titanic away from the iceberg.

Mainly to slow the f#$ker down, to get the country's attention and to ramp up for the upcoming war.

The testing and contact tracing would be a monumental task, but I'd want it for two reasons.

1. To try to play battleship with the outbreaks. I'd love to be able to map out where we are seeing outbreaks.

2. The contact tracing is just a goldmine of data and insights which will better arm us to make better decisions. That will lead to getting a true best practices of how to manage this thing which I believe would lead to us opening back up quicker and safer.

I understand that we can't contact trace everyone but we can do much better than we've done.

Let's set up a govt works program and hire a bunch of those recently unemployed to help gather the info and give us the insights.

This thing is so new that, going back to the OP, we're figuring it out as we go.

Let's really put some muscle behind the data gathering and really figure this thing out.

 

[sglowrider]

Thanks for your vote! Lol

In the beginning after watching what it was doing to Asia, the Middle East and Europe....I'm still probably pulling the safety breaker and shutting everything down to try to turn the titanic away from the iceberg.

Mainly to slow the f#$ker down, to get the country's attention and to ramp up for the upcoming war.

The testing and contact tracing would be a monumental task, but I'd want it for two reasons.

1. To try to play battleship with the outbreaks. I'd love to be able to map out where we are seeing outbreaks.

2. The contact tracing is just a goldmine of data and insights which will better arm us to make better decisions. That will lead to getting a true best practices of how to manage this thing which I believe would lead to us opening back up quicker and safer.

I understand that we can't contact trace everyone but we can do much better than we've done.

Let's set up a govt works program and hire a bunch of those recently unemployed to help gather the info and give us the insights.

This thing is so new that, going back to the OP, we're figuring it out as we go.

Let's really put some muscle behind the data gathering and really figure this thing out.

The thing about tracing is that once you have them mapped, the secondary contacts maybe an issue.

You are telling someone to stay at home with the possibility of having some secondary contact with someone they barely had contact with? They cant even rationalise the reason for a lockdown institutionalised by the Governor, not try telling someone to self-isolate.

What they did here was that the had the entire logistics set up ahead of time for post tracing. Have uber eats, deliveroo food delivery services setup so when the contact's self-isolation manager comes around they will just punch in the details for food/grocery delivery. Then the contacts have some financial compensation set up, also set up by that contact's isolation manager.

For the primary contacts, they are put into community care facilities -- converted exhibition halls, hotels etc. They will stay there for like 14 days. Free meals, access for doctors etc. And tested regularly. Then after that quarantine period is up, if they are normal they get to go home.

Problem with the situation in the States is that the well has been poisoned. People will just look at it as an infringement of their rights etc. The key missing element from the very start was the communication strategy. Give people reasons or motivation to comply. Instead it was politicised.

 

[sglowrider]

A day in the life...

 

[glmiu11]

And: 1) the last election was less than a percentage point in key states, 2) lots of people who couldn't stand hillary don't mind biden. my perception but i think it's accurate.

I agree with this, but if Biden is dumb enough to choose Harris as his running mate; I believe Trump will win.
I am a can’t stand Hillary guy and I didn't vote because of it. It’s going to be difficult not to do the same thing if Biden chooses Harris.

 

[glmiu11]

His messaging has been pure chaos. One week it's a hoax, the next its the flu, the next is a pandemic, the next is shut it down, the next is open by Easter, the next is miracle cures, the next is open up now....all in what, three months time?

He's been Tom Crean changing defenses five times on every possession.

During a crisis you need tough leadership and straight forward messaging to galvanize the country.

Again most crisises are a boom for incumbents as the country typically doesn't want to change leadership during one. Trump has been exploited with his 'you figure it out' strategy along with his back and forth stances.

Personally if we had president Tommycracker. In Jan when this this was breaking out I'm talking to European allies on what the f are you dealing with, gathering my team of experts and figuring out the game plan so I can best communicate the message.

Again the US was the last to get it. We had a preview of it unlike Europe and Asia, and we still have the worst numbers.

President Tommycracker comes out and shuts everything down, explains the sacrifice and that this threat is above party arguments and then I gather as much data as I can.

I want massive testing and to contact trace as much as possible to one try to identify where it's hiding and two to gather data.

I want to know is it really just a major issue for compromised people? What is the infection pattern? Does it spread the same indoor VS outdoor? I want to arm myself with data so I can open back up with a bundle of knowledge. Not because my poll numbers are dipping.

Lastly President Tommycracker takes the heat for shutting down. A shutdown only works if it's an all or nothing, not if MN does while Wisconsin doesn't (Wisconsin is twenty minutes from St. Paul). By not taking the heat Trump has just divided the nation even more. I make it known that I'm the one to be pissed with while explaining why I'm doing it.

This would lead to a galvanizing message against one common enemy...not this absolute cluster of different messages where no one believes anything.

Agree completely. I think the problem is that we have a President who is running from the law.

 

[zeke4ahs]

I agree with this, but if Biden is dumb enough to choose Harris as his running mate; I believe Trump will win.
I am a can’t stand Hillary guy and I didn't vote because of it. It’s going to be difficult not to do the same thing if Biden chooses Harris.

Why do you dislike Harris? Who do you like for VP?

 

[outside shooter]

I don't want to defend Trump here. I just want to know specifically what we should have done? .

Gotten serious about the disease, not on March 13, but at least by mid-February if not late January, when the contagiousness of the disease and potential for spread was widely known through intelligence info. So well known that many countries understood what they needed to do: stockpile rather than turn down masks, facilitate development of more testing, set up a federal contact tracing infrastructure, emphasize social distancing much earlier, stress the importance of mask wearing.

Some of this he has NEVER done. Some of this he started 30-50 days too late, relative to places that really hammered this disease. There's joy in New Zealand because zero out of 5 million people are hospitalized with COVID-19, and nobody has tested positive in 6 days. What they did was not magical. Nor was Germany, nor South Korea, nor Taiwan, nor Japan.

Not all of those countries took the same approach, but they did implement SOME science-based policies, at an early date, that led to winning rather than losing.

Would 100,000 USA deaths be zero? No. Could 100,000 be 10,000, merely by intelligent leadership? I say 'yes" but I realize that it is not provable. We can jut look to other countries that effectively squashed it. They went to the plate like Ted Williams. We went to the plate like Mario Mendoza.

 

[glmiu11]

Why do you dislike Harris? Who do you like for VP?

Harris seems like a gotcha person to me. I think she has a lot of the qualities Trump has.
I like Gabbard.
As far as who do I like that’s possible, I suppose Klobuchar.
I don’t get the “it has to be a woman” idea.
That said, I truly want Gabbard.

 

[sglowrider]

Gotten serious about the disease, not on March 13, but at least by mid-February if not late January, when the contagiousness of the disease and potential for spread was widely known through intelligence info. So well known that many countries understood what they needed to do: stockpile rather than turn down masks, facilitate development of more testing, set up a federal contact tracing infrastructure, emphasize social distancing much earlier, stress the importance of mask wearing.

Some of this he has NEVER done. Some of this he started 30-50 days too late, relative to places that really hammered this disease. There's joy in New Zealand because zero out of 5 million people are hospitalized with COVID-19, and nobody has tested positive in 6 days. What they did was not magical. Nor was Germany, nor South Korea, nor Taiwan, nor Japan.

Not all of those countries took the same approach, but they did implement SOME science-based policies, at an early date, that led to winning rather than losing.

Would 100,000 USA deaths be zero? No. Could 100,000 be 10,000, merely by intelligent leadership? I say 'yes" but I realize that it is not provable. We can jut look to other countries that effectively squashed it. They went to the plate like Ted Williams. We went to the plate like Mario Mendoza.

I would save this excellent response somewhere. The same question will be asked again and again.

1) The US has had ample warnings from its own intelligence agencies and WHO, China as far back as the 3rd of January 2020 -- and had initiated early contacts and formalised discussions began on the 4th of January between the two respective CDCs.
Even back in Feb, they had enough preparation time to ramp up just by looking at the contagion in Asia and Europe -- a good month or so. The first death was March 1st.

2) The lack of test kits (and its consequences) is just puzzling. By the time they made this 'discovery' within the CDC and WH, there were options -- many countries already were testing by the thousands per day back in late Feb/early March.

In fact, the Chinese had released the Covid-19 genome sequences for the virus back on 12th Jan 2020 to WHO and subsequently published on Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID). Everyone else, from Korea to Germany started developing the test kits based on this. The Chinese had optimised the PCR by the 16th of Jan for testing.

So the question here is why the delays? Incompetence, politically nuzzled or due to impending CDC budget cuts, they were willing to play along with the political winds? If its the latter then it's just criminal.

3) Then once its was acknowledged that things needed to be done, albeit too late since an hour's delay in a pandemic management has deadly consequences, never mind in this case, weeks, six weeks? There was not a comprehensive containment approach nor a communications plan. To hear all the talk about tracing, mapping and isolation now are just crazy. It's totally backwards.

It reeks of desperation and the complete mismanagement of the whole situation. We'll do it your way now (that my approach is a complete clusterfeck.)

In a few weeks, the death toll will be double of that of the Vietnam War, something that was achieved in two months what took the Vietnam War, 20 years. In fact, more people in the US have now died from Covid-19 than the Korean War, Vietnam War, Afghanistan War and Iraq War combined.

Yet it's taken lightly by some quarters.

For some one who has had early warning from the S'pore government since early Jan, I am past the point of shaking my head, anger or dismay. You just 'marvel' at the level of (political) callousness, stupidity, ignorance/parochialism and fake initiatives driven by greed. Am at the point where it's just sad.

 

[sglowrider]

Case in point:

Coronavirus in England: half of those with symptoms not isolating
Scientists say failure to follow advice raises questions over test-and-trace policy

Only half of people who develop coronavirus symptoms self-isolate for at least a week, according to government science advisers, raising urgent questions about the test-and-trace strategy aimed to contain future outbreaks.

The communication/messaging on why people need to take it seriously and secondly, for the greater good is critical. Once that window has passed. all the lockdown and later isolation etc is ineffective.

Both the leaders of the US and UK had similar ill-intended paths in that they poisoned the well early. Now that they dug a deeper self-inflicted hole, their options have dramatically narrowed.

• The UK had 256 deaths today.
• S Korea has had a similar number during the entire time of the pandemic.

• The UK had 2300 new infections today.
• S Korea had about 250 this week.

• Today S Korea reimposed their lockdown.
• Today the UK announced the relaxations of lockdown.