April 29 - 2nd wave inevitable. Today - 2nd wave not inevitable

Discussion in 'The Water Cooler' started by 82hoosier, May 27, 2020.

  1. 82hoosier

    82hoosier All-American
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  2. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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  3. Marvin the Martian

    Marvin the Martian Hall of Famer
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    I see we finally got through to you ;)
     
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  4. T.M.P.

    T.M.P. Hall of Famer
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    You probably shouldn't .. excessive drooling could be a problem.
     
  5. 76-1

    76-1 All-American
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    Guess we're screwed...
     
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  6. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Senior
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    Yeah "follow the science." These guys are just guessing. Tethering our economy and livelihoods and dreams to the vagaries of these doctors is absurd. And in their defense, what they're doing is hard shit, and obviously a matter of first impression. But allowing their opinions to dictate policy is silly.

    Imo we just need to take everything they say as just more information for consideration, but not dispositive, and live our lives with common sense. Wash your hands. Wear a mask. Avoid vulnerable people as best you can until the known cases dictate otherwise. Avoid large gatherings until the cases dictate otherwise. And pray our elected officials have a better plan if there is a second wave to isolate regions and vulnerable populations where flare ups occur. Unless and until there's a vaccine we need to adjust and learn to live with it.
     
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  7. outside shooter

    outside shooter Hall of Famer
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    If you don't want scientists to adjust their conclusions based upon the results of new experiments and the emergence of new data, then you don't understand the scientific method, even just a little bit.
     
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  8. Cortez88

    Cortez88 Senior
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    It also begs the question- what is the other option? Crystals? Snake handling? It’s the larger issue of the right moving away from science and experts. If an expert is wrong it means we don’t need them. If science gets one thing wrong it means we shouldn’t believe any science. This is the exact playbook the right has used against the media. And it worked for the base. They won’t believe anything reported by MSM.
     
    8 Cortez88, May 27, 2020
    Last edited: May 27, 2020
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  9. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    This leeway doesn't apply to political leaders, obviously.
     
  10. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    Good one, TP. I will indeed try the veal if the buffet ever reopens.
     
  11. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Senior
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    Nah. The scientific method is making predictions based on educated guesses. When policy follows the caprices of the scientific method you end up with a destroyed economy.
     
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  12. outside shooter

    outside shooter Hall of Famer
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    It certainly does. Trump refused to adjust his actions based upon wave after wave of new data that emerged between January 20th and March 13th. Before Jan 20th he could reasonably blame everything on China. They made many misstatements and were supported in those errors by the CDC.

    Shortly after that, and especially after the Jan 23rd lock down of Wuhan, the entire international community had crystal clear intelligence to understand the nature of the threat, the high infectiousness, the human-to-human transmission, the threat to health care workers, and the need to prepare.
     
  13. 82hoosier

    82hoosier All-American
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    Whether we can live with it will be a function of hindsight. But Trump has kicked the CDC crown off the bandwagon. He needs an economic recovery to have any chance of being re-elected. And that means teveryone needs to get back to work now! If this strategy does not work he will probably try to start a war with Iran. He is running out of options.

    Take off your masks and go back to work! Hmmm. No, I don’t think people will buy in. Well, maybe he QAnon crowd.
     
  14. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Senior
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    No chance we have an economic recovery by nov.
     
  15. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    I don't want to defend Trump here. I just want to know specifically what we should have done? Why were all those field hospital beds and extra ventilators unnecessary? PPE distribution was a major blunder, and Trump's demeanor through this has been a joke. What else?

    The spring breakers haven't killed their grandmas, or we would have heard about it. Some cases have spread from open factories, but not many deaths. The majority of cases have stemmed from mass transit and and business travellers. We knew from the first cases in Washington State that LTC facilities were tinderboxes. Their fatality rate amply covers the 30% increase in expected deaths which occurred in the deadliest week of the curve. I just don't know what measures another president might have taken that might have stopped those nursing home deaths.
     
  16. Circlejoe

    Circlejoe All-Big Ten
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    You really lose credibility when you make statements like "these guys are just guessing". I think I'll follow the advice of the experts who have dedicated their lives to pandemic science instead of you who enjoys offering advice to everyone based on your common sense. BTW, the scientists haven't dictated policy. That's just going to be the excuse Trump and his followers will use leading to the election. They will blame the scientists for the economic downturn when it was Trump and Governors who initiated the shutdown.
     
  17. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Senior
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    Guessing is literally what they're doing. Educated, but still guessing. So not sure how I'm losing credibility with that, but whatever. I can remove the "just" from my post and leave it as "these guys are guessing" if you like. That's fine. As for your bit about trump, whether he uses that excuse or not is immaterial. he won't win. the fickle independents have abandoned him or certainly will when the economy's still in the shitter come nov, which it will be i'm sure. penn, mich, wi, the states he won by a hair, will shift.
     
    17 mcmurtry66, May 27, 2020
    Last edited: May 27, 2020
  18. bawlmer

    bawlmer All-Big Ten
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    So he now thinks CDC is going to do contact tracing?

    "I'm feeling better about it as we go by with the weeks that go by and we see that we're getting more and more capability of testing," Fauci said. "The CDC is putting more of a workforce out there to help us do the kinds of identification, isolation, and contact tracing. I feel better and better that we're capable of doing that."
    Who's he kidding? The CDC has been incompetent and leaderless throughout this pandemic. He's become a mouthpiece for the Administration.
     
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  19. 76-1

    76-1 All-American
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    We rarely agree on anything but in my opinion you're absolutely correct about the CDC...
     
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  20. ButHerEmails

    ButHerEmails Sophomore
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    You’re just guessing
     
  21. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Senior
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    Correct.
     
  22. bawlmer

    bawlmer All-Big Ten
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    Maybe I should reconsider my position, then. :D
     
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  23. wiede

    wiede All-American
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    I give leeway- when it’s deserved/earned.

    This administration continually lies, and then doubles down on those lies. It’s an unprecedented assault on truth. We should’ve know once KellyAnne Conway coined the term “alternative facts” that we we were in for some BS. Hell, anyone paying attention to the campaigns should’ve known it. Trump is a guy that has made a CAREER out of lying and attacking others. Don’t ever forget that he is the king birther conspiracy theorist. It’s what started his political career.

    His method of doing whatever he wants involves tearing down the truth, and saying something over and over again until it SEEMS like the truth.

    So, they deserve (and get from me) zero leeway. It amazes me that people actually believe what the administration says. There are so many examples of them lying, it’s incredible. Not to mention covering stuff up.

    Science is messy- but it’s still the best option we have. Choosing to act on what you want vs what actually is there will lead you to a very bad place.

    Fortunately, we can’t all just declare that the sky is green, and 33% of the country (& 90% of Republicans) will either believe it or support the assertion.
     
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  24. wiede

    wiede All-American
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    Of all the institutions the pieces of government that this administration has torn down/destroyed, the CDC is probably in the worst shape. Part of that was incompetence, and part of it was not allowing them to do what they do- give us good science, and then we react based on that science.

    At this point, the CDC isn’t close to what it has always been. Given the seriousness of what they do, that’s scary.
     
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  25. wiede

    wiede All-American
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    Here’s a few links to keep you busy- the administration has handled this about as poorly as they could’ve handled it. It amazes me that anyone could think otherwise.

    Incompetence + arrogance + wishful thinking + cronyism + inability to accept blame + going against what medical experts recommend= us coming out of this in much worse shape than we could’ve done.

    You may not like some of the sources, but they didn’t make up the facts behind their conclusions in these stories. News outlets cannot simply make up crap- they must verify sources before they publish anything.

    https://time.com/5805683/trump-administration-coronavirus/?amp=true

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...amed-his-coronavirus-response/?outputType=amp

    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/po.../coronavirus-trump-covid-19-pandemic-response

    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opini...oronavirus-the-who-messed-up-but-so-did-trump


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/...;module=Spotlight&pgtype=hinytmynameisben

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tru...emic-response-cant-handle-bad-news-2020-4?amp

    That’s just a start. If you want more, there’s plenty more. In short- they have handled this about as poorly as they could’ve handled it. There’s no room for debate at this point.
     
  26. TommyCracker

    TommyCracker Hall of Famer
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    It's one thing to run as a mover and shaker against an extremely polarizing candidate...but it's another thing when the con is out in plain view which we've seen the past four years.

    His base is shrinking and he's not reaching out to grow it.

    On top of that, he's invigorated a massive base that has been hard for democrats to get to the polls....african American voters. Yeah blaming everything on Obama while coddling with white radicals will do that.

    He's a disaster with suburban women, which is another huge faction.

    Now due to his utter incompetence of leadership during the biggest crisis of his term (most crisises help an incumbent, Trump is getting exploited as a guy with no stratigic sense who basically said 'you figure it out' which has divided the country more VS galvanized it for a common cause) even more people are realizing he's just a con man. A salesman. Which is good for ratings but not for leadership.

    Lastly, his poll numbers are dropping with older voters which is what happens when you push opening the country and come across as if you don't have a plan or a concern for that voting group.

    Fox News is trying desperately to fix this for him....you can't go five minutes without them blaming democratic governors for the massive deaths with the elderly right now.

    He was in trouble to start but he's in big trouble now IMO.
     
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  27. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Senior
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    And: 1) the last election was less than a percentage point in key states, 2) lots of people who couldn't stand hillary don't mind biden. my perception but i think it's accurate.
     
  28. TommyCracker

    TommyCracker Hall of Famer
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    His messaging has been pure chaos. One week it's a hoax, the next its the flu, the next is a pandemic, the next is shut it down, the next is open by Easter, the next is miracle cures, the next is open up now....all in what, three months time?

    He's been Tom Crean changing defenses five times on every possession.

    During a crisis you need tough leadership and straight forward messaging to galvanize the country.

    Again most crisises are a boom for incumbents as the country typically doesn't want to change leadership during one. Trump has been exploited with his 'you figure it out' strategy along with his back and forth stances.

    Personally if we had president Tommycracker. In Jan when this this was breaking out I'm talking to European allies on what the f are you dealing with, gathering my team of experts and figuring out the game plan so I can best communicate the message.

    Again the US was the last to get it. We had a preview of it unlike Europe and Asia, and we still have the worst numbers.

    President Tommycracker comes out and shuts everything down, explains the sacrifice and that this threat is above party arguments and then I gather as much data as I can.

    I want massive testing and to contact trace as much as possible to one try to identify where it's hiding and two to gather data.

    I want to know is it really just a major issue for compromised people? What is the infection pattern? Does it spread the same indoor VS outdoor? I want to arm myself with data so I can open back up with a bundle of knowledge. Not because my poll numbers are dipping.

    Lastly President Tommycracker takes the heat for shutting down. A shutdown only works if it's an all or nothing, not if MN does while Wisconsin doesn't (Wisconsin is twenty minutes from St. Paul). By not taking the heat Trump has just divided the nation even more. I make it known that I'm the one to be pissed with while explaining why I'm doing it.

    This would lead to a galvanizing message against one common enemy...not this absolute cluster of different messages where no one believes anything.
     
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  29. Circlejoe

    Circlejoe All-Big Ten
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    Or you could say the scientists are making projections based on available data and historical evidence. That's a far cry from "just guessing". "Just guessing" allows you to tell everyone how to act based on your common sense and feel like you know what you're talking about. You don't.
     
  30. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Senior
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    From the results I’d say just guessing. Fauci changes his mind as much as trump. Follow the science....
     
  31. bawlmer

    bawlmer All-Big Ten
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    With all that testing and tracing, you avoid the complete shutdown and small businesses don't go out of business. Well done!
     
  32. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Cracker2020!!

    You have my vote.
     
    32 sglowrider, May 27, 2020
    Last edited: May 27, 2020
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  33. T.M.P.

    T.M.P. Hall of Famer
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    lol ............

    Orange people suck!
     
  34. T.M.P.

    T.M.P. Hall of Famer
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    I only disagree with one thing, Shut downs can be pinpointed and not be as blunt but one would need consistent coordinated testing and contact tracing.

    Identify hotspots, shut them down, isolate it, test test test.

    But as you highlighted in your post, consistent and coordinated are not in Trump's fly by the seat of his full diaper nature.
     
    34 T.M.P., May 27, 2020
    Last edited: May 27, 2020
  35. sglowrider

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    Everything he touches....
     
  36. T.M.P.

    T.M.P. Hall of Famer
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    President Poop Finger ...

    It's like having the Midas touch but with feces..
     
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  37. Cream&Crimson

    Cream&Crimson All-American
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    Their "opinions" have been the best information available as this situation unfolded. In the early stages of something like this, relying on the top experts like Dr. Fauci is probably a better way to go than just good 'ol common sense. These people have spent a career studying this exact sort of thing.
     
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  38. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Senior
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    Agreed on the early stages. In time that ongoing hysteria fueled by the daily briefings destroyed a shit ton of lives. Now Fauci has reversed course.
     
  39. T.M.P.

    T.M.P. Hall of Famer
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    is neither.
     
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  40. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    I think Trump feels responsibility and has worked hard. I think a crisis needs a real, trained and tested leader, tho, and Trump is not. Among his failures is definitely his inability to communicate that he is leading anyone. I'd also add that buying and distribution of PPE should have been controlled by FEMA.

    The sacrifices people have made as a result of the shut downs have not been fairly distributed. What evidence do you have that immediate, universal shutdowns would have benefited anyone? The most strict shutdowns world-wide were instituted in LTC facilities, and still they suffered tremendous losses.

    The Governors showed leadership at different times under various circumstances. The career politicians are clearly better at communicating their positions. They are not above criticism for the results in their states, as a few have had serious losses while most have managed much better.

    I think widespread contact tracing and testing is a pipe dream that cant be accomplished in this country. We are told there is a large segment of population that will not be able to get an ID to vote, but we are to assume they would comply with a contact tracing app? The "don't tread on me" crowd and "WGAF" party crowd would further complicate those efforts.

    Where is the infrastructure to administer 300 million reliable tests a couple times a week, let alone process the results? I mean I like the ideas, but respectfully, you're no Dr. Fauci. I think what we want to be able to do in a perfect world, what you'd think we'd ought be able to do by God, and the reality of what we are capable of doing as a nation are very far apart.

    Still, I'd vote for you over either guy running for POTUS this year. Thanks for your reply.
     
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