And then there was one. . .

[SRIV94]

Unfortunately, it's the toughest.

And since the SEC blows, the chances of them losing before the NCAAs are extremely slim.

And I don't see very many teams who have a remote shot of beating them in the NCAAs.

I think we have to come to grips with the fact that our reign as the last unbeaten is going to come to an end this year. I would've minded less had it been UVA who ended our reign instead of them.

Ironically enough, it was them who knocked off Wichita to preserve it last year.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

The odds are slim that they will go undefeated.

Even as overwhelming favorites in every game from here on out, it is much more likely that they will lose a game than not.

 

[SRIV94]

ESPN projects they have a 50/50 shot to run it.

The problem is they have to have an off night, and whoever they play has to have a very on night. And no one in the SEC is really that capable of pulling both off.

If Duke can hit from three against the last unbeaten the way they did in the waning moments at UVA, they might have a shot. Problem is Duke has woefully underachieved in the last few tourneys to the point where it's not likely they'll even get the chance to knock them off.

I hope you're right. I fear I'm right.

 

[IU Scott]

I think UW would have the best chance


of knocking off UK because they have the size to match up and they don't turn the ball over. They also take good shots and hit a high percentage.

 

[SRIV94]

That's a good call.

Would've also thought UVA had a shot because they play that kind of defense, but that defense let them down against Duke.

A WIS/UK game would be very intriguing. And I'm thinking it's very plausible they'll be 1-2 in the MW (Cleveland is much closer to Lexington than Houston is). Wisky's not out of the running for a 1, but I think they'll end up a 2.


This post was edited on 1/31 9:37 PM by SRIV94

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Yeah, but that's because ESPN is dumb...

Let's put it this way. UK has a Pyth. rating on KenPom of .9841. This means, out of 10,000 games against a perfectly average NCAA Div 1 team, they'll win 9,841 of them. Pretty good. Put another way, they have a 98.4% chance of winning any particular game. They have 10 games left in the conference season. Against average competition, they'd have about an 85% chance of running the table.

But they aren't playing average competition. The SEC is bad, but it's still better than average, and they have some (relatively) tough games left. Adjusting for this, UK has only an 11% chance of winning their next ten games. You intuitively know this is true; just think about the close calls they've already had - how lucky they are to still be undefeated even at this point.

Now, to run the table, they'll need to win 19 more games. Against perfectly average competition, that's likely (74%), but after the SEC slate, and three more games in the SEC, plus 6 NCAA games, at least a couple of which should be very tough, the odds are going to be much lower.

There is a reason that the best team in the nation rarely actually wins the championship. Games happen.

Now, that's not to say we shouldn't be worried. The odds of UK running the table are probably greater than they have been for any team at this point in the season in a while. But they are still long. If you offered me 10-to-1 odds that UK would finish the season as undefeated champions, I wouldn't take it. Not in a heartbeat.

goat

 

[SRIV94]

That's fair.

Hope you're right.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Me too.

There is very little that I think is likely to happen this season that I could possibly imagine would be worse than an undefeated UK.

I only offered all that as a way of saying, don't open up the cyanide quite yet.

 

[stoneycat_20]

Re: Yeah, but that's because ESPN is dumb...

The SEC is not bad at all...just dont have ranked teams, but Ken Pom has 9 teams in the top 50..BIG has 7..ACC has 5...

Originally posted by TheOriginalHappyGoat:
Let's put it this way. UK has a Pyth. rating on KenPom of .9841. This means, out of 10,000 games against a perfectly average NCAA Div 1 team, they'll win 9,841 of them. Pretty good. Put another way, they have a 98.4% chance of winning any particular game. They have 10 games left in the conference season. Against average competition, they'd have about an 85% chance of running the table.

But they aren't playing average competition. The SEC is bad, but it's still better than average, and they have some (relatively) tough games left. Adjusting for this, UK has only an 11% chance of winning their next ten games. You intuitively know this is true; just think about the close calls they've already had - how lucky they are to still be undefeated even at this point.

Now, to run the table, they'll need to win 19 more games. Against perfectly average competition, that's likely (74%), but after the SEC slate, and three more games in the SEC, plus 6 NCAA games, at least a couple of which should be very tough, the odds are going to be much lower.

There is a reason that the best team in the nation rarely actually wins the championship. Games happen.

Now, that's not to say we shouldn't be worried. The odds of UK running the table are probably greater than they have been for any team at this point in the season in a while. But they are still long. If you offered me 10-to-1 odds that UK would finish the season as undefeated champions, I wouldn't take it. Not in a heartbeat.

goat

This post was edited on 2/1 4:07 PM by stoneycat_20

 

[kurdman]

Re: UW overrated have not beaten anyone. Rutgers!!wow. Too slow

Unatheletic

 

[SRIV94]

And way better than us, as they proved last year in their F4 run

and this year. How much did they lose to Georgetown and Purdue by? I'll give you a hint--they didn't. Which is way more than we did against them.

Nice to see you're the same idjit as last year. You just keep denying that Wisky is good, and they'll just keep beating us into submission in Madison and go a lot farther in the postseason than we will.

Get a clue.

 

[Double Tay]

Re: And way better than us, as they proved last year in their F4 run

The SEC more than has twice as many top 50 teams than the big 10 (9>4). I'd like UK's chances much better than if they were in the big 10. And UK is already 4-0 against top big 12/ACC teams, both significantly better than the big 10.

The big 10 has won one title in 25 years. The sec has won 6 by 3 different teams over that same time period. I'll never understand where this superiority comes from with big 10 fans.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[SRIV94]

I won't pretend to understand Pomeroy's formula.

But I did check out his ratings through yesterday. While the SEC does indeed have nine top-50 KenPom teams, the B1G actually has seven. The B1G also has three top-25 teams (WIS, OSU and MSU). After UK at 1, the next highest SEC team is Ole Miss at 31. That's a pretty significant drop.

I really don't understand how his metrics have Florida at 33. Florida's not a good team.

 

[cavdog1985]

give me those slim odds

what is slim? 10-1? Define Slim and put money where your mouth is please

 

[HoosierRon]

Re: I think UW would have the best chance

I agree with IU Scott, Wisconsin has a good chance of beating Kentucky.

 

[HouseVD]

The last 5 games they play in NCAA tournament will be amongst the toughest

5 they have played all year. I know they beat Kansas earlier in the year, but that was a different Kansas team back then, a team that also was blown out by Temple. Louisville and Texas are 4-5 seeds, and kept it close. A couple of teams who likely won't make the tournament also kept it close against them and forced OT. A lot of teams in the country get better over the course of the season. UK might do the same, but there is some risk that they will rest on their laurels and feast on a weak conference, and not really be ready for the fight in the NCAA tournament.

Referees of course will have a big influence as well. If the refs bail out UK late in games to preserve the perfect season, then there is nothing that can be done. UK has more fans that anyone. (They also have more haters.) But the NCAA knows that when UK is good, their yokel fans will spend half the GDP of the state of Kentucky on tickets and merchandise. So it wouldn't surprise me at all if UK got some very favorable calls in the NCAA tournament, if you know what I mean.

 

[iubhounds]

What do you expect?

KenPom is a PUke grad

 

[IU Scott]

Kaminsky did not play

in that game Jackson got hurt yearly in that game so I wouldn't put to much into that game.

 

[SRIV94]

Still think Wisconsin is overrated?

Certainly says a lot about us.

 

[Catfish_ Crazy]

Re: Still think Wisconsin is overrated?

when was the last time a Blue Blood got beat 14 out 15 times to a non blue blood?

 

[SRIV94]

We haven't been a blue blood since 1993.

We've been good a couple of times, but the days of us being a blue blood are kaput. Wisky's more of a blue blood than we are.