A monumental catastrophic leadership failure!

VanPastorMan

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except at least 40-45% of cases are asymptomatic


Exactly, so we are not even sure how many people have actually gotten this virus. We've also got the reality that there is a lot of shenanigans going on with the counting of deaths ie somebody with stage four cancer gets the virus or a motorcycle crash death is marked down as covid because the guy who died had the virus. There is also the blatant lying of reports. Florida centers say they had 100% positive results. People say they have been marked down as a covid positive when they never even took the test.
 

mcmurtry66

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We'll see. Trump has directly challenged him to do so, or tuck tail and hide.

Gotta give Redfield credit, he knew he was giving a contradictory take on the vaccine and masks when he did it and did it anyway. Whether or not he sticks by his guns is the next question.
Dumb question about masks. So my county is at its peak of cases. Literally everywhere I go every single person I see is masked up and have been for some time. Is it that but for the masks it would just be that much worse? I thought with the compliance we see here cases would be declining instead they have been on the rise throughout the mask mandate
 

UncleMark

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Dumb question about masks. So my county is at its peak of cases. Literally everywhere I go every single person I see is masked up and have been for some time. Is it that but for the masks it would just be that much worse? I thought with the compliance we see here cases would be declining instead they have been on the rise throughout the mask mandate
I'm not really qualified to respond. I'd listen to the experts, like shooter or COH. :)

So many variables involved. All things being equal, I'd have to say that universal masking would definitely help depress spread.
 

mcmurtry66

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I'm not really qualified to respond. I'd listen to the experts, like shooter or COH. :)

So many variables involved. All things being equal, I'd have to say that universal masking would definitely help depress spread.
Lol. Yeah I don’t understand any of it. But I’m not kidding compliance here is fantastic yet cases are really high. I’m not sure redfield’s comparing masks to a vaccine was very well taken. But again I know nothing about this stuff
 

Bulk VanderHuge

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Exactly, so we are not even sure how many people have actually gotten this virus. We've also got the reality that there is a lot of shenanigans going on with the counting of deaths ie somebody with stage four cancer gets the virus or a motorcycle crash death is marked down as covid because the guy who died had the virus. There is also the blatant lying of reports. Florida centers say they had 100% positive results. People say they have been marked down as a covid positive when they never even took the test.
Links?
 
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Noodle

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I think that what sglowrider is saying is that if the herd immunity (Trump said "mentality") theory prevails, then based on the current rates of death generally prevailing in the US from COVID and the number of infections needed to get to 70% of the population to reach herd immunity, there will be another 2-6 million deaths before herd immunity is reached. (BTW, I got 7 million yesterday when I first heard the stats, but I don't know where to find the stats now.)

In looking at the numbers, we have roughly 200,000 deaths on about 6.7 million cases in the US . . . 70% of the population would be about 231 million (based on a 330 million current US population), so to infect 70% of the population we would need to infect another 224.3 million people to achieve herd immunity. With a current known death rate of about 2.985% of those infected (200k/6.7 million) . . . 2.985% of 224.3 million would be another 6,695,355 deaths.

So sglowrider's estimate of 2-6 million is, if anything, a bit low.
Point of order. First of all, you are assuming that the actual number of people who have contracted Covid is precisely 6.7 million. In reality, it's surely much higher than that - probably at least 5x the reported numbers, if not 10x. Furthermore, the death rate is currently lower than 2.985% of the reported cases. I believe it's been around 1.8% - 2.0% for months now. Early on it was 3x that.
Furthermore, many estimates now are that it would take 50% exposure to achieve herd immunity (some theorize it could be even less, at least insofar as what is needed to effectively stop the spread of Covid).
Now, I am not suggesting we should strive for herd immunity (without a vaccine). It would result in millions of deaths (~2 million?). But almost certainly less than 6 million.
But again, even 2 millions deaths is not even remotely acceptable.
 
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JamieDimonsBalls

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So what? That statistic is inherent in the stats reflecting the cases-to-date.
Because the death rate assumptions you are using are considerably higher. If you are using too small of a denominator, you aren't projecting with an accurate death rate.

That doesn't even take into account obvious variables like changes in COVID care (e.g., ventilator use, etc.).
 

Sope Creek

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Point of order. First of all, you are assuming that the actual number of people who have contracted Covid is precisely 6.7 million. In reality, it's surely much higher than that - probably at least 5x the reported numbers, if not 10x. Furthermore, the death rate is currently lower than 2.985% of the reported cases. I believe it's been around 1.8% - 2.0% for months now. Early on it was 3x that.
Furthermore, many estimates now are that it would take 50% exposure to achieve herd immunity (some theorize it could be even less, at least insofar as what is needed to effectively stop the spread of Covid).
Now, I am not suggesting we should strive for herd immunity (without a vaccine). It would result in millions of deaths (~2 million?). But almost certainly less than 6 million.
But again, even 2 millions deaths is not even remotely acceptable.
I took the data quoted from a Bing search regarding a coronavirus update that I did today on my phone. Here's what Google provides as an update today:

United States
Total cases
6.65M
+39,216
Recovered
-
Deaths
197K
+997

I calculated the death rate by dividing the number of deaths (which I rounded to 200,000) by the number of cases reported (which I rounded from 6.74 million down to 6.7 million). I used 70% as the percentage required for herd immunity because it was in an article I read yesterday. This link (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases...th/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808) to a June 6, 2020 Mayo clinic article says that the percentage required to stop the epidemic is 70%:

"Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic."

Your point is well-taken, but at least I've shown my work. I'd be delighted to see yours.
 

Sope Creek

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Because the death rate assumptions you are using are considerably higher. If you are using too small of a denominator, you aren't projecting with an accurate death rate.

That doesn't even take into account obvious variables like changes in COVID care (e.g., ventilator use, etc.).
No, I'm not using too small of a denominator. I'm using the reported cases for that. I understand that some might want to argue whether that's an accurate number, but it's the best data we have.

I considered the changes in care, along with the fact that the most vulnerable populations have already been hit hard by COVID . . . but the data is the data. It's the best we've got.

If you want to argue otherwise, show your work. Otherwise, you're just spitballing.
 

UncleMark

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He’s just saying 4 million or so deaths tops!! We are just trying to make a mountain out of a molehill.
Now, I am not suggesting we should strive for herd immunity (without a vaccine). It would result in millions of deaths (~2 million?). But almost certainly less than 6 million.
But again, even 2 millions deaths is not even remotely acceptable.
Because the death rate assumptions you are using are considerably higher. If you are using too small of a denominator, you aren't projecting with an accurate death rate.
Even if that's true, do the math on that and if you're still comfortable with the idea of "herd mentality", you have a problem.
All you guys citing facts and statistics are so cute. Do you really think Trump actually knows wtf he is talking about when he blurted out "herd mentality"? That's just the newest buzz word he's heard since he just hired Dr. Atlas -- a herd immunity advocate -- to take some of the spotlight away from Fauci.
 

Sope Creek

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Dumb question about masks. So my county is at its peak of cases. Literally everywhere I go every single person I see is masked up and have been for some time. Is it that but for the masks it would just be that much worse? I thought with the compliance we see here cases would be declining instead they have been on the rise throughout the mask mandate
What % of those wearing masks test positive for coronavirus?
 

mcmurtry66

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What % of those wearing masks test positive for coronavirus?
No clue. And again this is purely anecdotal but we have a county-wide mandate and you absolutely never see someone without a mask yet our cases continue to rise. And I know there are other variables, but it’s strange. Sports are shutdown. All of it. My guess is we’re likely a hotspot as this moves like a forest fire and it would have been that much worse.
 
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UncleMark

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Stuffshot

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No clue. And again this is purely anecdotal but we have a county-wide mandate and you absolutely never see someone without a mask yet our cases continue to rise. And I know there are other variables, but it’s strange. Sports are shutdown. All of it. My guess is we’re likely a hotspot as this moves like a forest fire and it would have been that much worse.
Not to be overly critical (I hope), but you wrote, "you absolutely never see someone without a mask." No one resists taking their mask off every now and then.

Plus, I doubt people are diligently sanitizing the insides and doors of their cars before giving people rides or delivering packages to their friends. Also, people now seem to be visiting each other in their homes, and I'm sure the homeowners aren't sanitizing doorknobs, door bell buttons, kitchen tables, plates, tableware, TV remotes etc. which are then handled by their visitors. Schools are reopening too.

And, no matter how strict your county is, people can freely travel back and forth to other places less strict. Masks help a lot but they won't eliminate all the cases.
 
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outside shooter

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My county, Palm Beach County FL, was a huge hot spot and the numbers started going down right after a strict mask mandate, backed by shutting down non-compliant businesses and fining the anti-maskers. That might have been just good timing, but if not causation, it was an obvious correlation.
 

mcmurtry66

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yeah it' s weird. everyone here is masked up; bars and restaurants are restricted. no youth sports. and cases rising and not subsiding. maybe the "forest fire" of south forida is just moving on and now the midwest is getting whacked and but for the masks it'd be even worse. two of my close friends in pbc tested positive last month. both stayed home and never got too sick. both are backing playing outdoor soccer down there
 

Stuffshot

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My county, Palm Beach County FL, was a huge hot spot and the numbers started going down right after a strict mask mandate, backed by shutting down non-compliant businesses and fining the anti-maskers. That might have been just good timing, but if not causation, it was an obvious correlation.
I'm sure the masks make a significant dfference for the better.

I am waiting for this guy I know, who works at a car wash, to get his Hydroxychloroquine dosage, his bleach injection and his ultraviolet light shoved up his butt, before I pass further judgment whether masks are the best preventive measure.
 

JamieDimonsBalls

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No, I'm not using too small of a denominator. I'm using the reported cases for that. I understand that some might want to argue whether that's an accurate number, but it's the best data we have.

I considered the changes in care, along with the fact that the most vulnerable populations have already been hit hard by COVID . . . but the data is the data. It's the best we've got.

If you want to argue otherwise, show your work. Otherwise, you're just spitballing.
I literally just linked the head of the NIH and foremost expert telling you the data is wrong. If you are too stubborn to tweak your assumptions for what we now know, then you might as well not even comment.
 

hoosboot

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I literally just linked the head of the NIH and foremost expert telling you the data is wrong. If you are too stubborn to tweak your assumptions for what we now know, then you might as well not even comment.
Even if those numbers mean what you seem to be saying they mean (that we are undercounting actual cases by 40-45% - which isn't what the quote means), the amount of deaths that would be necessary to reach "herd mentality" would be massive and intolerable.
 

sglowrider

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My county, Palm Beach County FL, was a huge hot spot and the numbers started going down right after a strict mask mandate, backed by shutting down non-compliant businesses and fining the anti-maskers. That might have been just good timing, but if not causation, it was an obvious correlation.
I live in a place with the population the same as Indiana. Mandatory masking. 27 deaths to date.

🤔🤔

Point is, no one is expecting to wear masks with the next-level alacrity but it works.
 
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JamieDimonsBalls

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Even if those numbers mean what you seem to be saying they mean (that we are undercounting actual cases by 40-45% - which isn't what the quote means), the amount of deaths that would .be necessary to reach "herd mentality" would be massive and intolerable.
perhaps but nobody knows. I think the death rate would come down considerably.

but I’m not saying we should go for herd immunity and frankly, if Gottlieb ends up being right, it won’t matter because it will be a seasonal, flu like virus. Not one that is dealt with through immunity
 

Stuffshot

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Exactly, so we are not even sure how many people have actually gotten this virus. We've also got the reality that there is a lot of shenanigans going on with the counting of deaths ie somebody with stage four cancer gets the virus or a motorcycle crash death is marked down as covid because the guy who died had the virus. There is also the blatant lying of reports. Florida centers say they had 100% positive results. People say they have been marked down as a covid positive when they never even took the test.
Also, we're not sure how many "pastors" have gotten this virus despite claiming God will protect them. The dogmatic claims by "pastors" does not explain why God does not protect pastors from Covid any better than God protects motorcycle riders. It almost seems sometimes that God created and protects the virus, too.


Reality actually does indicate there are a lot of "shenanigans" going on with the counting of rumors and lying in reports by "pastors". In fact, "people say" pastors are "marked down" as honest and genuine just because they have included "pastor" in their made-up user name.

God invented brains and it's always a good idea to use them, even if Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham don't use theirs.
 

hoosboot

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perhaps but nobody knows. I think the death rate would come down considerably.

but I’m not saying we should go for herd immunity and frankly, if Gottlieb ends up being right, it won’t matter because it will be a seasonal, flu like virus. Not one that is dealt with through immunity
Perhaps? No one knows? You think?

Totally can see why you have a problem with Sope's data-informed approach. :rolleyes:
 

DrHoops

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That is Bob Woodward's summation of Trump's presidency. He said that this morning on MSNBC during an interview.

Do you think Woodward's anonymous sources for this book will stay anonymous?
I think one has to be Mattis. Probably Bolton too.
 

hondo314

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Exactly, so we are not even sure how many people have actually gotten this virus. We've also got the reality that there is a lot of shenanigans going on with the counting of deaths ie somebody with stage four cancer gets the virus or a motorcycle crash death is marked down as covid because the guy who died had the virus. There is also the blatant lying of reports. Florida centers say they had 100% positive results. People say they have been marked down as a covid positive when they never even took the test.
Let these heathens say what they want. Our president is a man of great faith!

 

TommyCracker

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Also, we're not sure how many "pastors" have gotten this virus despite claiming God will protect them. The dogmatic claims by "pastors" does not explain why God does not protect pastors from Covid any better than God protects motorcycle riders. It almost seems sometimes that God created and protects the virus, too.


Reality actually does indicate there are a lot of "shenanigans" going on with the counting of rumors and lying in reports by "pastors". In fact, "people say" pastors are "marked down" as honest and genuine just because they have included "pastor" in their made-up user name.

God invented brains and it's always a good idea to use them, even if Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham don't use theirs.
If you think about it, maybe God is punishing us for electing and worshipping the false, golden fake idol like he did to Rameses.

How many plagues and natural disasters does God have to send us before we get the message?
 

Lucy01

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If you think about it, maybe God is punishing us for electing and worshipping the false, golden fake idol like he did to Rameses.

How many plagues and natural disasters does God have to send us before we get the message?
What message are you talking about?
 

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