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7/14 games to get 20 wins... who/where will they come from...

AEgley

Junior
Dec 20, 2002
1,853
12
38
hopefully presuming 20 wins means an NCAA birth? but not guaranteed....

M at Illinois
M Maryland
L at Ohio State
L at Purdue
W Rutgers
L at Wisconsin
W Michigan
L at Maryland
M Minnesota
W Purdue
M at Rutgers
M at Northwestern
M Iowa
W Michigan State

4 W's 6 Maybe's 4 L's
 
Given that we have quality wins vs. Butler and SMU

(plus OSU in-conference), it may not take 20 to get in. That said, I think we have a better shot to beat Iowa than we do MSU, so I'd swap those two games.
 
Not all sites are 100% perfect, but...

...the link below gives us a 4% chance to get in with 19 wins.

I think that's low, but IMO, its not higher than 25%.

We need 20 wins because of 2 reasons:

Our pre-conference SOS is horrific. Which kills our RPIThe B10 is down this year. Quality wins (top 50 RPI), are few and far between

LINK
 
As of today, 21 wins looks like the magic number, per your link

7 wins = 31% chance of at-large berth
8 wins = 73% chance

again, as of today, it looks like 8 more wins is the magic number. That will also depend on the specific teams IU beats or loses to and by how much, but a 7-7 finish with 1 B1G tourney win might do it. I'm wondering if that would look better than an 8-6 finish with 0 B1G tourney wins? What say ye?
 
Prefer to look better at the end of year (b10 tourney) right?

We need at least 10 conference wins either way....

9-9 going into the B10 tourney would require us winning it to get in.... don't want that.
 
I understand, but here's the question we have to evaluate.

Of the teams rated higher than us in the RPI (of which there are 49--we're 50), how many of them will have a serious shot at an at-large bid if they don't win their conference tourney? I'd say most of them would, but here are the ones that don't IMO:

Georgia (playing UK will boost their SOS, but realistically they'd have to beat UK in one of the two games to make it matter)
Wofford (SOS will kill them, SoCon traditionally a one-bid league)
Tulsa (loss to Oral Roberts, 8 of their last 13 against sub-100 teams, 5 of the 8 against sub-200 teams)

Alabama (see Georgia)
Temple (two sub-100 losses [UNLV/St. Joseph's], American 8th in conference RPI)
Buffalo (not enough quality wins)

Our resume compares favorably to most teams--yes, the SOS isn't ideal, but two top-25 RPI wins (one away from the Hall) is a little difficult to ignore. When your worst loss is to a team ranked 61, that's actually not bad.

As it stands, RealTimeRPI.com projects us to win our remaining home games and lose our remaining road games to finish 7-7 (which would give us 20). At that point, then we're on the bubble (since achieving that record would mean two sub-100 losses), but how soft the bubble is depends on what other conferences do. To me, the conference to watch is the SEC--while they're 4 in the RPI (the B1G is 5), I see only three likely teams (UK/ARK/LSU) getting in--maybe a fourth out of the UGA/ALA/TENN grouping. They're really only 4 because of UK (otherwise, they'd be 5 or even battling with the Pac 12 for 6).



This post was edited on 1/15 1:20 PM by SRIV94
 
My projection...

I would say:

L at Illinois
W Maryland
L at Ohio State
L at Purdue
W Rutgers
L at Wisconsin
W Michigan
L at Maryland
W Minnesota
W Purdue
M at Rutgers
M at Northwestern
W Iowa
W Michigan State

7-5 with 2 maybes so could go anywhere from 7-7 to 9-5, which would mean 10-8 to 12-6, so I'll say we go 8-6 over our last 14 and finish 21-10 heading into the BTT where we are BEYOND due to win a game or two...

This post was edited on 1/15 1:38 PM by fivestarlocks
 
The site I use has Georgia at a 42% change to get in...

...which is lower than IU (%51).

Much like IU, they need to get to 20 wins to have a decent chance. And that's getting beat by UK twice. If they win one of those, they leap frog IU in a instant.

When you are hoping for other teams to lose so you can get in, that's a bad place to be in. That's where we were this time last year.

Its simple, IU needs at least 20 to get on the bubble. And even then, its a 50/50 chance. Less than 20, they have little to no chance. Doesn't matter what teams like Georgia does...



Georgia
 
I think that after the BTT, if we have less than 22 total wins...

we'll be going to the NIT. 21 total wins will put us squarely on the bubble and we could get in, but it would be a very uncomfortable position to be in on selection Sunday.
 
I think IU needs to go 20-11 (10-8) to get in.

I really don't see 9-9 getting us in. 20-11 (10-8) and a 4 or 5 seed in the BTT with some quality wins on the resume should be enough. I think that would overcome the bad SOS and RPI.

Now, I am ONLY BEING HONEST HERE...i'm not a hater and I HOPE I AM WRONG because I LOVE IU, but
looking at the remaining schedule, I do not see us getting to 10 wins. I honestly do not see us getting those wins in the regular season. So that would leave us at 19-12 or even 18-13.

***IMHO, 19-12 (9-9) leaves us as one of the FIRST FOUR OUT and needing to win 2 games in the BTT.
18-13(8-10) leaves us as one of the NEXT FOUR OUT and needing to win 3 games in the BTT.
 
We do not match up well with MSU.

Their guards are just as good as ours and are more experienced. Dawson is better than anything we have inside. They can play our game and play it better.

We have to shoot better than they do from 3, play better defense, and limit turnovers.
 
Re: I think IU needs to go 20-11 (10-8) to get in.

Agree on 20-11, (10-8), but I think we get there provided Perea is back no later than the home game with Minnesota and remains healthy thereafter.
 
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