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538 House model is up and has Dems with 75% chance of winning the House

As to your main question, I would answer it with another: why do you care about a moderate Democratic party? Isn't a moderate Republican party really your goal? Voting Dem in this cycle would just be a means to an end for you. Send the GOP a message and don't worry about what it does to the dems.

My goal is to have a centrist govt that is pragmatic. Why would a moderate Pub necessarily be better than a moderate Dem?
 
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