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538 House model is up and has Dems with 75% chance of winning the House

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Fro

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Caveat of course is that the odds of Rs retaining the House are about the same as Trump winning in 2016. Something that has a 25% chance of happening has a better chance of happening then people think and the prediction model isn't "wrong" if the 25% thing does happen.

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Fro said:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Caveat of course is that the odds of Rs retaining the House are about the same as Trump winning in 2016. Something that has a 25% chance of happening has a better chance of happening then people think and the prediction model isn't "wrong" if the 25% thing does happen.

vWJc5o1.jpg
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I'm going to be very interested in comparing the 538 and NYT forecasts as we inch toward election day. The general thought is that 538 wiped the floor with NYT in 2016, specifically because Silver gave Trump a bigger chance of winning, but as you say, if the 25% thing happens, that doesn't mean the projection was wrong. Well, NYT gave him a 15% chance of winning, that wasn't "wrong," either. Just..."less right?" Something like that?
 
INRanger27 said:
I personally hope it to be a very short term phenomenon. I’m dying to get my pre-Tea Party party back.
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I haven't looked into who won our primary enough on either side, but the very problem with this stupid two-party system is that it isn't a democracy. I'm screwed with either selection at this point for national seats as the left has moved further left (look at some of the winners like Ocasio-Cortez) and the right has moved further right (in our GOP gubernatorial primary, both candidates that previously spoke out against Trump caved and acted like scared little dogs). The winner, Johnson, though more conservative than Pawlenty, is still relatively moderate compared to the mainstream Rs these days.
 
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JamieDimonsBalls said:
I haven't looked into who won our primary enough on either side, but the very problem with this stupid two-party system is that it isn't a democracy. I'm screwed with either selection at this point for national seats as the left has moved further left (look at some of the winners like Ocasio-Cortez) and the right has moved further right (in our GOP gubernatorial primary, both candidates that previously spoke out against Trump caved and acted like scared little dogs). The winner, Johnson, though more conservative than Pawlenty, is still relatively moderate compared to the mainstream Rs these days.
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Fully agree with the stupidity of the two party system but it’s unlikely to change in our lifetime. I voted for Hillary expressly because the other guy is a complete joke of a man.

I don’t follow MN politics enough but I’d caution against saying that the #NewGOP is moving further right. These Trumpism actions are not conservative, they’re populist. Immigration restrictions have nothing to do with conservatism nor do tariffs and keeping dying industries afloat.

The GOP is taking the Dems past Big Tent strategy and using it against them. Apparently it’s working. But these Trumpers aren’t conservatives. They’re populists that state the names and causes of the bogeymen (gun control, immigrants, unfair tariffs, etc).

Populism is, IMO,more dangerous to a republic than are far right or far left policies at either end of the spectrum.
 
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INRanger27 said:
Fully agree with the stupidity of the two party system but it’s unlikely to change in our lifetime. I voted for Hillary expressly because the other guy is a complete joke of a man.

I don’t follow MN politics enough but I’d caution against saying that the #NewGOP is moving further right. These Trumpism actions are not conservative, they’re populist. Immigration restrictions have nothing to do with conservatism nor do tariffs and keeping dying industries afloat.

The GOP is taking the Dems past Big Tent strategy and using it against them. Apparently it’s working. But these Trumpers aren’t conservatives. They’re populists that state the names and causes of the bogeymen (gun control, immigrants, unfair tariffs, etc).

Populism is, IMO,more dangerous to a republic than are far right or far left policies at either end of the spectrum.
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I think this dovetails with our previous discussion about political labels being transformed from ideologies into identities. If we look at "right" as an identity, rather than some coherent set of policy preferences, then the GOP has absolutely shifted to the extreme right. The party's embrace of Trump seals that deal. But it also means that, under the old view of right-left being ideological, you are right that this shift is not to the "more conservative." "Trumpist populism" is simply replacing "conservatism" as the rallying point for the Republican party.
 
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INRanger27 said:
zeke4ahs said:
As do I. I look fondly on the days where I just opposed the ideas of a political opponent. I’d give anything for a McCain or a Romney right now.
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Part of the reason we are where we are at is the treatment that Romney got.
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In what way? I remember some of the attacks, but don’t see it as any more out of bounds than the normal attack ads that have been going on forever. Or did you mean something else?
 
IDontWannaLargeFarva said:
INRanger27 said:
Part of the reason we are where we are at is the treatment that Romney got.
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You mean the racist, school bully that kept binders full of women and abused animals?
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I don’t remember Romney being called racist, but I might have missed it. Elitist, one percent and all that. And the dog on top of a car is abuse. But we could talk about Swift Boating next... against a Purple Heart winner.
 
zeke4ahs said:
I don’t remember Romney being called racist, but I might have missed it. Elitist, one percent and all that. And the dog on top of a car is abuse. But we could talk about Swift Boating next... against a Purple Heart winner.
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LOL...recall when a good scandal was the Swift Boats or W's Texas Air National Guard attendance record, or Binders of Women?

Bush, Gore, Kerry, McCain, Romney all look like Abe Lincoln compared to the current gong show.


We were so innocent.
 
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INRanger27 said:
Part of the reason we are where we are at is the treatment that Romney got.
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Romney was my favorite Presidential candidate of my adult life....by far. Think he would have been a fabulous President (still do). I was also a McCain fan for years....going back to the 2000 race. But Romney had a much better temperament, and wasn't such a hawk.

Was never a big W fan, nothing personal, always thought his heart was in the right place and he really wanted the best for the country. Don't think he had the intellectual heft for the job, and got pushed into bad positions by Cheney. But again....he's fkn Socrates compared with what's going on now.
 
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Quix0te said:
Don't forget that terrible, terrible break-in at the DNC HQ at Watergate. That was oh so much worse than 58,000 dead Americans in a war that the CinC knew couldn't be won.
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Was before my time...I don't comment on things I don't know shit about.
 
INRanger27 said:
Fully agree with the stupidity of the two party system but it’s unlikely to change in our lifetime. I voted for Hillary expressly because the other guy is a complete joke of a man.

I don’t follow MN politics enough but I’d caution against saying that the #NewGOP is moving further right. These Trumpism actions are not conservative, they’re populist. Immigration restrictions have nothing to do with conservatism nor do tariffs and keeping dying industries afloat.

The GOP is taking the Dems past Big Tent strategy and using it against them. Apparently it’s working. But these Trumpers aren’t conservatives. They’re populists that state the names and causes of the bogeymen (gun control, immigrants, unfair tariffs, etc).

Populism is, IMO,more dangerous to a republic than are far right or far left policies at either end of the spectrum.
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I suppose, but you are essentially saying that if I continue voting, I'll be voting for the lesser of two shitty candidates (or a meaningless third party one) instead of a good candidate. That's where we have found ourselves and further polarization of political stances is only going to make the best of the two candidates more shitty than the prior one (Trump the exception).

It's just sad and pathetic.
 
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JamieDimonsBalls said:
I suppose, but you are essentially saying that if I continue voting, I'll be voting for the lesser of two shitty candidates (or a meaningless third party one) instead of a good candidate. That's where we have found ourselves and further polarization of political stances is only going to make the best of the two candidates more shitty than the prior one (Trump the exception).

It's just sad and pathetic.
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Take a bigger picture view. By completely destroying the Republican party on Election Day - particularly the Trump-supported candidates - perhaps the electorate can send a message to the GOP that the direction the party is going is not acceptable. This is political Suck for Luck. Vote Democrat in 2016 to save the Republican party.
 
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i'vegotwinners said:
Dems were going to win so convincingly in 2016, that the GOP was going to cease to exist.
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Ironically, that may still happen, in a roundabout way.

By winning and consuming the GOP, Trump could ultimately be the ruining of the party. And, don’t forget that several GOP governorships are in play this time- and the winners of the primary are pretty extreme, or very strong in their support of Trump. The Dems actually have a chance to retake many of the state governorships, and also take back some of the legislatures.

Why does that matter? Because the congressional districts can be redrawn after the 2020 census- and if the trends towards more Dems being elected happens in this midterm, and continue forward, then they will have a good chance of being able to redraw some really extremely gerrymandered districts.

***Side note- I hope if the Dems have the opportunity, they don’t seize it to gerrymander things back to their favor. It’s wrong, no matter which party does it.***

Trump will presumably be the pub nominee in 2020, and I’d guess his favorable/unfavorable ratings will likely be worse than they are now- the economy is really strong, and he can’t crack 45% favorable ratings. Amd his unfavorable ratings are above 55%- that’s never a good recipe for winning.

And these #’s are before the impacts of the tariffs happen. If ANYTHING goes wrong economically, or the Mueller probe reveals nefarious activity, he’d be an extremely vulnerable candidate. In other words, he NEEDS support from the middle to win, and I’d guess by that point it would have all but evaporated. He got it last time- but I don’t see that same support being there moving forward. At least if he continues to do the things he’s doing right now.

And if somehow Trump isn’t the nominee in 2020, it would be even worse for the pubs (think Gerald Ford in ‘76- and I’m NOT saying he wouldn’t be the nominee because of impeachment, though it’s possible).

The possibilities above are admittedly far in the future, and things can change quickly in politics. But, I’d say that your original statement may ultimately end up being true.

So, everyone save this so you can either laught at me incessantly, or, be amazed at my foresight later ;)

*** it may not be a terrible thing for the GOP to shed the Trumpites, and go back to many of their ideals from a decade or two ago (free trade, respect for the intelligence community being among them). Even though it would really hurt at first to shed the “bad hombres” from the party that are avowedly white supremacist/racist, I believe losing those folks would ultimately allow those in the middle to go to the GOP.

In other words, as long as that faction is highly visible in Trump’s GOP, the party is limited in progressing forward. There’s a lower ceiling for the party with them “in the tent” so to speak.

And, all of this sucks. I wouldn’t be crazy about a president Romney or Kasich, but at least I could respect them. I actually like it when government is somewhat balanced, and the crazies haven’t hijacked the party.

And yes, I realize the Dems have their own existential challenges. Will they be more moderate, or socialist? Or is their room for both?

As a fan of politics, this is certainly a fascinating time we live in. Terrifying, but fascinating nonetheless.
 
TheOriginalHappyGoat said:
Take a bigger picture view. By completely destroying the Republican party on Election Day - particularly the Trump-supported candidates - perhaps the electorate can send a message to the GOP that the direction the party is going is not acceptable. This is political Suck for Luck. Vote Democrat in 2016 to save the Republican party.
Click to expand...

Or it might happen because incumbent President's usually have their party get beat bad in the midterms. But sure, prescribe special meaning to this fall....... because Trump.
 
IDontWannaLargeFarva said:
Or it might happen because incumbent President's usually have their party get beat bad in the midterms. But sure, prescribe special meaning to this fall....... because Trump.
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That’s true. But this is shaping up to be a historic @ss whipping- even thought the economy is humming along.

And that has EVERYTHING to do with Trump.
 
TheOriginalHappyGoat said:
Take a bigger picture view. By completely destroying the Republican party on Election Day - particularly the Trump-supported candidates - perhaps the electorate can send a message to the GOP that the direction the party is going is not acceptable. This is political Suck for Luck. Vote Democrat in 2016 to save the Republican party.
Click to expand...

You said what I said, and I should’ve read your post first. Only you did it in hundreds of words less ;)
 
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wiede said:
That’s true. But this is shaping up to be a historic @ss whipping- even thought the economy is humming along.

And that has EVERYTHING to do with Trump.
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"historic @ss whipping"?

Lol it wont even match the beating the R's put on Obama in 2010 after he supposedly pulled us out of a depression.
 
Hoosier_Hack said:
Drama drama drama..... it’s okay to say you’re a Democrat....it’s okay to be one. I don’t understand why you continue to pretend you aren’t.
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You do realize that you don't have to be one or the other right?

Ranger isn't a Democrat. He is a conservative in the same vein as those I grew up with in Indiana.

The GOP abandoned people like him, but that doesn't make him a Democrat. He's a conservative, not a Republican, don't confuse the two.

The Democrats are a left/liberal/progressive party and that's not what ranger is looking for. He might find some merit in one or two of their ideas, but he sees the role of government as different from most Democrats.

I don't mean to speak for him, but as I have many in my family in the same boat, I understand where he is coming from.

Growing up 90% of my family were conservative Republicans. Today most of them are still conservatives, but very few are Republicans.
 
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IDontWannaLargeFarva said:
wiede said:
That’s true. But this is shaping up to be a historic @ss whipping- even thought the economy is humming along.

And that has EVERYTHING to do with Trump.
Click to expand...

"historic @ss whipping"?

Lol it wont even match the beating the R's put on Obama in 2010 after he supposedly pulled us out of a depression.
Click to expand...
Because of all the lies spread about ACA, that once people understood it, suddenly became popular.
 
IDontWannaLargeFarva said:
Or it might happen because incumbent President's usually have their party get beat bad in the midterms. But sure, prescribe special meaning to this fall....... because Trump.
Click to expand...

On another page, Nate went in to his 5 Big Takeaways from what the model showed.Number 4 is interesting...

"Theme No. 4: Potential Democratic gains are broad-based, across all regions of the country
One factor helping Trump in 2016 was that he really needed to beat his polls in only one part of the country, the Midwest, to defeat Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College. (Outside of the Midwest, the polls were reasonably accurate and even underestimated Clinton in some states.) By contrast, Republicans are facing a multi-front assault in the House this year:

  • In the Northeast, they have a lot of exposure in New York and New Jersey, which were once bastions of moderate Republicanism but which have become increasingly inhospitable to it — and in Pennsylvania, where court-ordered redistricting resulted in a bad map for Republicansand where a lot of GOP incumbents have retired.
  • In the South, they face pressure because of demographic change in states such as Georgia and Virginia — and increasingly in Texas.
  • In the Midwest, there’s the risk of reversion to the mean with Trump off the ballot, especially as the GOP coalition in these states has come to rely on non-college voters who don’t always participate in midterm elections.
  • And in the West, there are 14 Republican incumbents in California and another four in Washington who are increasingly running against the political current as the Pacific Coast becomes a somewhat literal “blue wall”.
As it happens, projected Democratic gains are almost evenly distributed between the four Census Bureau regions: The Classic version of our model projects them to gain nine seats in the Midwest, nine in the South, nine in the Northeast, and nine in the West. Note that Democrats could completely flop in any one of these regions and yet still (just barely) win enough seats to take the House."

Trump's "popularity" comes into play particularly in purple districts with first time GOP Incumbents. Many of these Pubs won as moderates in Districts that went for both them and HRC. As Nate points out, in the 1990's Incumbency used to be worth about 20 pts, in terms of overperforming the partisan baseline of their district. Nowhere near the case this year, as Dem challengers have outraised their Pub counterparts in 71 of the 101 Districts Cook rates as "competitive", and Pub Incumbents bear the brunt of voters increasing displeasure with Congress. Thanks Nunes...;)


"In more recent elections, as Congress has become less and less popular, the incumbency advantage has eroded to more like 10 to 12 percentage points. And between anemic fundraising, highly Trump-aligned voting records even for incumbents in purple districts, and reasonably good district-by-district polling for Democratic challengers, our model is projecting only about a 6-point advantage for GOP incumbents this year. Plus, a lot of Republican incumbents have retired."



https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-big-picture-in-the-race-for-the-house/?yptr=yahoo
 
twenty02 said:
You realize that the largest political affiliation in the country is "independent", right?

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
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I’m not the one that continuously speaks in two party jargon. He does....in short yes I do understand. I also understand we haven’t had an independent run on a ticket since I think Perot .....who I voted for (I was in California and the election was over so it was a protest vote but...) ..... so you either end up voting dem or repub. I say unequivocally that he aligns with Dems more than Republicans. That’s all. To say the party/conservatives left him.....eh? I don’t see that.

Conservatives have been complaining about the repub party for ages. That is Rush’s schtick..... but to think the republicans have fallen farther from conservative values than the Dems? That is an entirely different kind of reach that should cause you to just admit that you have changed views....

There isn’t anything wrong with that either. There really isn’t. It isn’t a slam but I’m sure it will be taken that way because it is me.
 
TheOriginalHappyGoat said:
Take a bigger picture view. By completely destroying the Republican party on Election Day - particularly the Trump-supported candidates - perhaps the electorate can send a message to the GOP that the direction the party is going is not acceptable. This is political Suck for Luck. Vote Democrat in 2016 to save the Republican party.
Click to expand...

2016? I assume you mean 2018 or did you mean 2020 (or both)? My fear is, once a party gains some power, they tend to move more away from center. So, if I help trounce the GOP in the next two elections and the GOP has to rebuild, the left can move further left in theory because of their momentum and control. I suppose you could also argue that if the GOP blows up and has to reinvent itself, it is likely to move further right.

How do I get to the center?
 
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TheOriginalHappyGoat said:
Take a bigger picture view. By completely destroying the Republican party on Election Day - particularly the Trump-supported candidates - perhaps the electorate can send a message to the GOP that the direction the party is going is not acceptable. This is political Suck for Luck. Vote Democrat in 2016 to save the Republican party.
Click to expand...

By going outside the box and electing Trump, the body politic showed its lack of favor towards establishment candidates in general and Hillary Clinton specifically. If the GOP loses the House, this illustrates a continual dissatisfaction with Washington.

Warning to Dems: Realize the mid term election puts them on a very short lease. The lease not only being short but tenuous. Tenuous in that the body politic is fickle and seemingly divided over what it expects from Washington.

In other words, nothing either party does may be acceptable..
 
hoot1 said:
By going outside the box and electing Trump, the body politic showed its lack of favor towards establishment candidates in general and Hillary Clinton specifically. If the GOP loses the House, this illustrates a continual dissatisfaction with Washington.

Warning to Dems: Realize the mid term election puts them on a very short lease. The lease not only being short but tenuous. Tenuous in that the body politic is fickle and seemingly divided over what it expects from Washington.

In other words, nothing either party does may be acceptable..
Click to expand...

You bring up a good point hoot. But, the problem seems to be that people are expressing their displeasure with the establishment (and rightfully so) by electing non-establishment candidates that are unqualified (e.g. Trump, Paul, Ocasio-Cortez) over pragmatic non-establishment choices (e.g. Bloomberg, Pawlenty, etc.). I don't see this as a good response to the problem.
 
JamieDimonsBalls said:
2016? I assume you mean 2018 or did you mean 2020 (or both)? My fear is, once a party gains some power, they tend to move more away from center. So, if I help trounce the GOP in the next two elections and the GOP has to rebuild, the left can move further left in theory because of their momentum and control. I suppose you could also argue that if the GOP blows up and has to reinvent itself, it is likely to move further right.

How do I get to the center?
Click to expand...
2018. Typo. Not even talking 2020 right now.
 
JamieDimonsBalls said:
2016? I assume you mean 2018 or did you mean 2020 (or both)? My fear is, once a party gains some power, they tend to move more away from center. So, if I help trounce the GOP in the next two elections and the GOP has to rebuild, the left can move further left in theory because of their momentum and control. I suppose you could also argue that if the GOP blows up and has to reinvent itself, it is likely to move further right.

How do I get to the center?
Click to expand...
As to your main question, I would answer it with another: why do you care about a moderate Democratic party? Isn't a moderate Republican party really your goal? Voting Dem in this cycle would just be a means to an end for you. Send the GOP a message and don't worry about what it does to the dems.
 
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