538: Bloomberg starting to break out?

Discussion in 'The Water Cooler' started by TheOriginalHappyGoat, Jan 31, 2020.

  1. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    According to 538, Bloomberg's strategy to focus on Super Tuesday might be starting to pay dividends, as he is gaining ground in those states (and later ones), to the point that he's passed Mayor Pete for 4th place in their national polling averages.

    How is he doing this? Money. Bloomberg has already spent $90.6 million on ad buys in Super Tuesday states, which is more than four times what Steyer has spent so far, and nearly fourteen times what the rest of the field combined have spent. In nine of those states, only the billionaires have spent a dime, and of those nine, Steyer's spending is nominal at best in all but California (for example, Steyer has spent $169K in Texas, compared to Bloomberg's $24.1M.

    Conventional wisdom says a handful of candidates other than Bloomberg (current weather patterns suggests Biden and Sanders) will come out of the early states with the momentum and the media coverage, but also with relatively few actual delegates. Bloomberg is hoping those folks will run into a wall of Bloomberg support stretching from California to Massachusetts.

    Bloomberg appears to be running in the same "lane" as Biden and Buttigieg. If his novel strategy works, he might set himself up as the establishment candidate against whichever of the two liberals ends up top progressive dog coming out of February.
     
  2. twenty02

    twenty02 Hall of Famer
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    Few are ready to talk about Bloomberg.
     
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  3. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    Gotta look ahead and see all the angles.
     
  4. twenty02

    twenty02 Hall of Famer
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    Beat Trump.

    That was the Biden ad I saw tonight. Was as straightforward as possible.
     
  5. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    You don't think Bloomberg can do that? Based on your previous statements about what you think a winning Democratic strategy would be, I'd think Bloomberg would be just the guy you'd want to see if it's not Biden.

    Certainly you'd rather see Bloomberg over Sanders or Warren, right?
     
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  6. JamieDimonsBalls

    JamieDimonsBalls All-Big Ten
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    yes but he has no chance. throwing money around like crazy is not going to excite voters to get out and vote for you
     
  7. toastedbread

    toastedbread Hall of Famer
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    The only thing he might do is sabotage Biden. His ads are on Chicago radio 24/7.
     
  8. twenty02

    twenty02 Hall of Famer
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    Yes I'd be fine with Bloomberg....I do question his strategy, but he's not doing this on a whim and for vanity. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. My guess is he'll just draw from voters that would have instead gone for Biden..... thereby making it more likely someone he doesn't like wins.

    I do think it would be high comedy watching Trump's head explode in a general election having to run against someone that's roughly 100x more financially successful than he is.
     
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  9. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    I've been thinking this too. Thing is, I don't see either Sanders or Warren quitting so they're going to be splitting those delegates. In the end, no one might have enough. Then the question becomes, did Steyer and Bloomberg capture any of the Sander/Warren delegates?

    In the end, if Sanders/Warren combined have more than half, then one will win, right?
     
  10. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    Bloomberg supposedly bought a Super Bowl ad...
     
  11. DrHoops

    DrHoops Hall of Famer
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    I like Bloomberg. I'm not sure why people think he's off-putting, other than the fact that he's a billionaire...and a real, self made one at that.

    Our country is so f-ing weird right now.

     
  12. dbmhoosier

    dbmhoosier Senior
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    So Bernie is ahead in NH and possibly ahead in IA. Has there ever been a candidate in either party who won 2 of the big 3 (IA, NH, SC) and didn’t get the nomination?
     
  13. zeke4ahs

    zeke4ahs Hall of Famer
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    I’d imagine so. Those states aren’t exactly diverse.
     
  14. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    Going back to at least the 80s, I couldn't find any.
     
  15. i'vegotwinners

    i'vegotwinners All-American
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    he's not sabotaging Biden, he's replacing him as the DNC's great economic conservative hope.

    don't for a second think his entry into the race wasn't pushed by the DNC..

    while some voters haven't grasped it yet, the DNC has that Biden is toast.

    the DNC and their media, MSNBC, CNN, CBS, ABC, NYTs, WaPo, are transitioning to implanting Bloomberg as Wall St's chosen Dem nominee, seeing that previous Wall St slated candidate Biden is both very tainted and a terrible candidate to begin with.

    rules have/will be changed to get Bloomberg in the debates, and as Biden fades, the media will give more and more good coverage to Bloomberg, while continuing to sabotage Bernie and any other progressives.

    it's not personal, it's just business.

    there's a reason big money spends billions on controlling govt, lobbying, contributions, huge payoffs to those who play ball, entire corp departments dedicated to buying/manipulating govt.

    this entire 24/7/365 yr after yr, decade after decade, big money effort is to keep economic progressives from ever reaching office, and neutering them if a few slip through the cracks.

    the DNC, big media, and big money, will fight all economic progressives to the death, and the better the progressives do, the more vigorously their big money foes will fight them, and use every trick in their arsenal.

    Russia isn't the one significantly influencing, (totally owning), our elections and govt.
     
    15 i'vegotwinners, Jan 31, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2020
  16. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Freshman
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    I’m just amazed at these guys. Bloomberg is going to be 78 in a few weeks. How the hell do they have the stamina for this stuff. By 2:00 I’m ready to pass out at my desk. I always think of that Seinfeld episode where George tells Elaine to schedule late afternoon meetings to sabotage the old guys.
     
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  17. DrHoops

    DrHoops Hall of Famer
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    I don't get it either, to be honest. Hell, Dershowitz is 81. I guess the idea is to keep doing something.

     
  18. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Freshman
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    Honestly I think you're spot on. Just keep going. That said one does wonder at what point age becomes a factor. Dershowitz is a brilliant, brilliant lawyer and legal scholar. Youngest full prof in Harvard Law history. I don't know about you guys but what I watched of him at the impeachment trial was almost comical. He was completely awful. His arguments were more in keeping with persuading a Springer show audience than a presidential impeachment.
     
    18 mcmurtry66, Feb 1, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2020
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  19. DrHoops

    DrHoops Hall of Famer
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    Yeah, somethings up with Dershowitz, and I don't think it's his age. He talked recently about getting a massage at Jeffrey Epstein's house. He said "I don't even like massages and I didn't even take my underwear off." It was strange.

     
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  20. toastedbread

    toastedbread Hall of Famer
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    I like you and agree with you much of the time, but I think Biden is most likely to defeat Trump, while Sanders is most likely to get rocked. At this moment, my sole concern is the removal of Trump from office.
     
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  21. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    Your attitude sucks.
     
  22. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Freshman
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    How so?
     
  23. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    It's a joke, maestro. Sucks, as in, otherwise you'd be doing great at their age... ;)
     
  24. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Freshman
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    I’m slow
     
  25. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    I should have tacked on an emoji.
     
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  26. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    Bloomberg has a good ad running in Florida on VH1. COuldn't find it. He's got a great message in every ad I've seen. He's a candidate for the bottom 80%.

    His ad campaign is perfect for the way the primaries are set up. California for instance gives out some delegates to those who get at least 15% of the overall vote and for 15% in districts. Bloomberg can hit all districts with just a flick of his pen. With just 15% he can rack up a larger percentage as long as some of the other candidates garner percentages lower than 15%. By competing in all districts he has a chance of multiplying his percentage by some factor. Sanders and Buttigieg turned their 25%of the votes into about 37% of the delegates.
     
  27. i'vegotwinners

    i'vegotwinners All-American
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    that ad couldn't be anymore disingenuous, and like Butt, Bloomberg's strategy is only point out problems, but never give a solution he might have to defend..

    and how do you know he's for the bottom 80%, when he hasn't offered up one thing benefiting the bottom 80% or anybody yet?

    "i'm for good and against bad, a chicken in every pot, good wages, and affordable healthcare for all", is easy to say when you don't have to offer any plan what so ever to accomplish any of those. (the mayor Pete strategy, and the strategy of most politicians).

    the Bloomberg ads running here, are all about when he and Obama were running the country as a team.
     
    27 i'vegotwinners, Feb 14, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2020
  28. hoot1

    hoot1 Hall of Famer
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    Bloomberg was one of my possible candidates to root for,

    Tonight while doing something else, I heard him as if listening to the radio while my television was on.

    My "Midwestern ear" (which is tuned to question strange speaking voices) heard what I will call a foreign accent,

    Got to wonder if Bloomberg, unlike say Trump, speaks the language of most Americans.
     
  29. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Jewish/foreign accent? Yah, and Trump speaks the language of most Americans.

    WTF!! As a minority, this is some scary shite Hoot1.

    [​IMG]


    I am not sure you depict Midwesterners in a good light with your statement -- unless I misunderstood your statement. And what you really meant was that anyone with a non-Midwestern accent is foreign?
     
    29 sglowrider, Feb 14, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2020
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  30. zeke4ahs

    zeke4ahs Hall of Famer
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    Is there a reason you call Pete “Butt”? It’s very Trumpesque.
     
  31. i'vegotwinners

    i'vegotwinners All-American
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    shut up Bevis.

    too lazy to look up the spelling. don't over think it.

    and i called him "mayor Pete" in the post you quoted.

    i don't type worth sht, so Butt is easier.

    if you actually stood for anything, you wouldn't have brought up something so inconsequential.

    in the future try actually standing for something, and not just being a tool of a party that now serves as one of Wall St's 2 political arms.

    if the DNC actually went back to backing the average citizen, they wouldn't need you to lobby for them, and would defeat Trump easily.

    Trump only won because they don't anymore, (nor does the GOP), and the working class resent a traitor who turned on them more than someone who never backed them at all, so now back Trump on his lip service alone, even though they suspect he's lying his ass off on that too.

    give them an alternative, and they will come.

    of course you and the other propagandists would much rather have Trump, than anyone who isn't all in on backing the investor class only, at the expense of the working class.
     
  32. Cream&Crimson

    Cream&Crimson All-Big Ten
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    I have no idea what you were trying to say there.
     
  33. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    You new around here?
     
  34. twenty02

    twenty02 Hall of Famer
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    Bloomberg leading in FL outright now.

    When will he be in a debate?
     
  35. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    I think I heard he'll be in the next one prior to the NV caucus, but don't hold me to that.
     
  36. zeke4ahs

    zeke4ahs Hall of Famer
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    Sure, Jan.
     
  37. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    Here it says not and maybe not in any. He's not particularly interested.

    He's ready to foot the bill for the entire Democratic campaign. Sheesh. That's kind of an offer you can't refuse. Seriously. Drop another billion or two and who knows what might happen in the Senate?
     
  38. zeke4ahs

    zeke4ahs Hall of Famer
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    Too many moderates in the field. But how strong does he have to feel about Trump to be spending that kind of money?
     
  39. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    A lot better would be Butte. As in picturesque protrusion...

    [​IMG]

    :p (Hope I didn't spoil anything for anyone forever...)
     
  40. iuwclurker

    iuwclurker All-Big Ten
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    No shit.

    I'm not sure the number of moderates matters unless none gets above 15%. That would be hilarious. Theoretically Bernie could get 15% and take home all the delegates... o_O
     

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