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40 or so days out. Early prognostications

Ghostridah

Senior
Sep 30, 2006
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I was ready to start the season 5 min after the end of the last one. A year ago I thought a healthy IU could get to a bowl; but I thought THIS season had 8 wins written all over it. I saw a veteran offensive line, a senior QB, an All American Sr tailback, a schedule that wasn't a gimme, but more manageable than some of the earlier ones. And I saw a defense that should be improving.
Now?
Realities of IU football in contrast to other teams are apparent. At Ohio State they plug in any number of new 4 and 5 star prospects waiting their turn. IU couldn't replace an All American Belitnikopf candidate a year ago. Can they replace an All American Heisman trophy candidate this season?
The All American RB is gone early to the NFL. He's been replaced by what may be a very good Big Ten back. But until it's shown on the field, it hasn't happened yet. I trust the coaches and I think Redding can be a quality player. Someone needs to emerge as a viable #3. Is it Mister?

I think the defensive line will be improved. I like Mangieri at tackle more than I liked him at Bandit. As a tackle he's pretty athletic and maneuverable. As a Bandit, less so. Shaw had some good moments last yr and could be a very good player. Rayner and Latham can give IU some very solid play opposite Mangieri and I look for McRay to give them some quickness up front in reserve. Hoff is darn near immovable at the nose. Green needs to pick up his play. He's shown flashes. He needs to keep getting better. IU needs to show it can stop/contain the run and get pressure on the passer without having to bring wholesale gambling blitz packages that work great once and give up a TD on the next play.

In the time I've been watching IU football, IU has had a handful of Big Ten level linebackers. But not in my lifetime I haven't seen 4 guys as potentially good suit up for the Hoosiers as Simmons, Gooch, Oliver and Scales. How many can play at an OSU level???? Well.. But for IU, they are pretty good. On the outside a lot of questions. IU has historically played a lot of converted athletes at the field side. Often with mixed success. Newton and company must play effectively in space.

Secondary: WOW... More questions than on Jeopardy. Who plays corner? How good are the safeties? IU is trying to get taller and tougher at corner and at safety. A lot of youth back there. Kinda scary.
Offensively a lot of success is dependent on the offensive line staying healthy. If they can run the ball effectively, it will take pressure off the passing game. Wide receiver is........ I can't imagine IU having more questions at receiver. For as long as I can remember, IU has always had at least ONE WR who could really really play. They may still. but who is he?

Tight end? At least two are terrific at blocking at the point of attack. Can anyone get open and catch the ball?
QB? I think Nate ranks as one of IU's best ever. IU has only had a handful of very good, BCS level QB's in my life.
Trent Green, Dave Schnell, Tim Clifford, Brandon (Babe) Laufenberg, ARE, and.. Harry Gonso. After that? Not so much (to me) All those guys had someone or people, who could get open and make a catch when it mattered. I hope Nate finds his.

Kicking: When IU made a switch in kickers, they really improved..

Punting: Needs to be more consistent. Struggles early last season.

Prognosis and outlook.
I've thought about this alternately between 5 min and 5 hours.
I know Coach Wilson likes a particular style of play. But I think to maximize his teams chances of winning, he'll adapt his style to fit this team. I think the days of Seth Littrell are long gone. Coach Johns hasn't been in the job long enough for me to make a detailed analysis. But given the talent, I think IU will feature more running, play action and short passing to sustain drives as opposed to winging it all over creation and generating one quick TD and 3 quick 3 and outs.
I see more of a Patriot / Bronco style control the ball and clock style than before. They may still come quickly to the line, but take longer to get the play in and play a more controlled style to help the defense.
And then, I COULD MISS TOTALLY.
Either way. I can't wait.
Go IU football
 
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