It's way too soon, but I'm bored, and I really need to shut off the legal part of my brain for the weekend. @MrBing and I bounced this around a tiny bit in a different thread, but here are some thoughts looking forward to the Democrats in 2020. This will all be written under the assumption Trump is still in office and secures the Republican nomination.
Now, I've been pretty open that my dream candidate is Tim Ryan. I think he checks off all the boxes that Hillary didn't, and his blue collar bona fides cannot be denied. The only question for him is timing. Sure, he challenged Pelosi for leadership, but he hasn't done much nationally since, and he might not be able to build his brand in time (although he has cosponsored the House version of single-payer, which may be something of a Dem litmus test this cycle). If he has his eyes on the Oval Office, he might be thinking more long-term, maybe with a challenge for Rob Portman's Senate seat in 2022 serving as a springboard. So, leaving Ryan aside for now...
Bernie - Obviously, Bernie is still positioned as the man that matters more than anyone else. He's consistently rated the most popular politician in the country, and he's extremely popular among the particular demographic that most damaged Clinton's campaign. Age is the obvious concern. If elected, he'd take office older than Reagan was when he left. Of course, Trump is no spring chicken himself, so it might be less of an issue than it otherwise would be. Even if Bernie doesn't run (and I've previously opined that he should not), he'll still have the ability to act as kingmaker of sorts. If he endorses a candidate early, that candidate becomes the immediate front-runner.
Uncle Joe - Democrats love Biden, but he's also getting up there in years, and the whole Anita Hill thing has tarnished his image a bit. Similar to how I'd personally prefer to see Bernie stay in the Senate, I'd also prefer Biden play the role of elder statesman, rather than actually jump in the ring himself, but if he does jump in, he'll have a lot of support. Has the benefit of bridging the gap between the two wings of the party, as he appeals to establishment Dems better than Bernie does, but also has better liberal appeal than the Clintonistas.
Gillibrand - She's so high on the list because she's doing more than anyone else to position herself for a run right now. There is no doubt she'll be in the race. She is better placed to take advantage of the #MeToo movement than any other Democrat, but I'm not sold on her appeal in the general. Cosponsored Bernie's single-payer bill.
Sherrod Brown - If we had to nominate someone to be the Next Bernie, I think Brown would be it. Liberals love him, but he has broad everyman appeal, too. Has not cosponsored Bernie's bill, probably because he's up for election in 2018, and he's not sure Ohio is ready for that. Has supported the idea in the past.
Hickenlooper - Funny name or no, very few Democratic governors have the broad appeal he does. He's term-limited, which means after January 2019, he can focus exclusively on the 2020 election.
Warren - No reasonable list would leave her off, but I'd much rather have her in the Senate than the White House. After mentioning both her and Gillibrand, I will also bring this up: it may make people uncomfortable to think about it, but I really think the smart move for the Dems in 2020 is to run a white man. Just the way it is. Also a Berniecare cosponsor.
Kamala Harris - Desperately trying to be a national figure, I have no doubt she is eyeing a run. I have to be honest; I'm not a big fan of how she did her job as California AG. I thought she defended a number of flatly unreasonable legal positions for political purposes. But I'd be surprised if most of those positions hurt her. For example, I thought her dedicated attack on the owners of Backpage.com for child prostitution was borderline prosecutorial misconduct, but it's hard for me to imagine she'd suffer much heat for it. She also cosponsored Bernie's bill.
Wild cards to keep an eye on: Booker, Cuomo, Jerry Brown.
Thoughts?
Now, I've been pretty open that my dream candidate is Tim Ryan. I think he checks off all the boxes that Hillary didn't, and his blue collar bona fides cannot be denied. The only question for him is timing. Sure, he challenged Pelosi for leadership, but he hasn't done much nationally since, and he might not be able to build his brand in time (although he has cosponsored the House version of single-payer, which may be something of a Dem litmus test this cycle). If he has his eyes on the Oval Office, he might be thinking more long-term, maybe with a challenge for Rob Portman's Senate seat in 2022 serving as a springboard. So, leaving Ryan aside for now...
Bernie - Obviously, Bernie is still positioned as the man that matters more than anyone else. He's consistently rated the most popular politician in the country, and he's extremely popular among the particular demographic that most damaged Clinton's campaign. Age is the obvious concern. If elected, he'd take office older than Reagan was when he left. Of course, Trump is no spring chicken himself, so it might be less of an issue than it otherwise would be. Even if Bernie doesn't run (and I've previously opined that he should not), he'll still have the ability to act as kingmaker of sorts. If he endorses a candidate early, that candidate becomes the immediate front-runner.
Uncle Joe - Democrats love Biden, but he's also getting up there in years, and the whole Anita Hill thing has tarnished his image a bit. Similar to how I'd personally prefer to see Bernie stay in the Senate, I'd also prefer Biden play the role of elder statesman, rather than actually jump in the ring himself, but if he does jump in, he'll have a lot of support. Has the benefit of bridging the gap between the two wings of the party, as he appeals to establishment Dems better than Bernie does, but also has better liberal appeal than the Clintonistas.
Gillibrand - She's so high on the list because she's doing more than anyone else to position herself for a run right now. There is no doubt she'll be in the race. She is better placed to take advantage of the #MeToo movement than any other Democrat, but I'm not sold on her appeal in the general. Cosponsored Bernie's single-payer bill.
Sherrod Brown - If we had to nominate someone to be the Next Bernie, I think Brown would be it. Liberals love him, but he has broad everyman appeal, too. Has not cosponsored Bernie's bill, probably because he's up for election in 2018, and he's not sure Ohio is ready for that. Has supported the idea in the past.
Hickenlooper - Funny name or no, very few Democratic governors have the broad appeal he does. He's term-limited, which means after January 2019, he can focus exclusively on the 2020 election.
Warren - No reasonable list would leave her off, but I'd much rather have her in the Senate than the White House. After mentioning both her and Gillibrand, I will also bring this up: it may make people uncomfortable to think about it, but I really think the smart move for the Dems in 2020 is to run a white man. Just the way it is. Also a Berniecare cosponsor.
Kamala Harris - Desperately trying to be a national figure, I have no doubt she is eyeing a run. I have to be honest; I'm not a big fan of how she did her job as California AG. I thought she defended a number of flatly unreasonable legal positions for political purposes. But I'd be surprised if most of those positions hurt her. For example, I thought her dedicated attack on the owners of Backpage.com for child prostitution was borderline prosecutorial misconduct, but it's hard for me to imagine she'd suffer much heat for it. She also cosponsored Bernie's bill.
Wild cards to keep an eye on: Booker, Cuomo, Jerry Brown.
Thoughts?
