2013 v 2018===looking at the stats

[mushroomgod_1]

Looking at this teams potential.....wanted to compare this team with the '13 Omaha-bound team.

That team went 49-16, for a .752 WP. Last years team went 34-24, for a .586 WP.

Assuming no major injuries (huge assumption I know), what record might this team have?

On the face of it, there appear to be two major differences between '13 & '18. First and foremost, the starting pitching. Second, the '13 team had the fearsome foursome of Schwarber, Travis, DeMuth, and Donley at the plate.

Looking at the teams' offensive production, you can see that this years foursome of Miller, Lloyd, Sowers, and Gorski has a ways to go to match the production of '13's big 4:

Schwarber,,,,,,,,.366/.647 18 HRs
Travis,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.316/.545 10 HRs
DeMuth,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.377/.545 5 HRs
Donley,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,..358/.504 5 HRs v.


Lloyd,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.301/.554 11 HRs
Sowers,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.291/.536 13 HRs
Miller,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.272/.464 10 HRs
Gorski,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.288/.400 4 HRs

As you can see, the '17 guys were as productive as the '13 guys power-wise. I was really surprised to see that Sowers ended up at .291, as he was in the .230s for 1/3 of the year (it seemed). On the other hand, he was insanely hot the last 10 games or so. All in all, we might expect Sowers' and Lloyd's #s to be a little better in '18, but maybe not too much.

I would expect the big # increases to be with Miller & Gorski. I wouldn't be surprised to see Miller go .300 with 15-16 HRs......Gorski might be .300 with 8-9 HRs.

Now, where I see the '18 team to have a big advantage over the '13 team is in offensive depth.

While we all loved the '13 team, we knew there was a big drop-off in productivity between the 'big 4' and the rest of the line-up. Looking at the stats from that year, the 5 other guys who got the most ABs were Michael Basel (.313/.446, 3 HRs), Casey Smith (.309, 5 HRs), Will Nolden (.303, 5 HRs), Chad Clark (.232, 2nd on team, behind KS, in SBs), and Justin Cureton (.216).

I have to think Fineman, Bradley/Dunham, Bonnell/Barr, Houston, and Logan K. will be considerably more productive than the remainder of the '13 line-up. The '13 team overall hit .301/.443, with 53 HRs. The '17 team hit .267/.438, with 75 HRs (19 by Dedelow). Overall, I think this team could realistically go .290/.460 with 75 HRs.

Now the big question------pitching overall, but especially the starters.

The '13 staff had an overall era of 2.64, while giving up only 18 HRs. The '17 staff was at 4.58, and gave up 50 HRs.

The '13 staff had a set 4 man rotation of Aaron Slegers(18 starts, 9-2, 2.04)), Joey DeNato(18 starts, 2.52, 10-2), Kyle Hart(15 starts, 8-2, 3.01), and Will Cousen-Carr(11 starts, 5-0, 1.93). In comparison, the '17 starters were Stiever(14 starts, 4-4, 4.31), Hobbe(12 starts, 2-5, 6.61), Milto(10 starts, 6-3, 3.93), and Kruger(6 starts, 5-2, 2.82).

While the #s are starkly different, I don't think many fans going into '13 thought that starting rotation was going to be nearly as good as they turned out to be. I'll defer to others here, as I didn't follow the '12 team closely, but I do think Cousen-Carr (at least) was a big surprise. If Kruger starts, the trio of Stiever, Milto, and Kruger could rival Slegers, DeNato, and Hart. The 4th guy is a big ??, but there are so many possibilities that it would seem likely that we will have a quality #4 guy by mid-season.

In long relief, the '13 team featured Scott Effross(62.2 IPs, 6-1, 2.44) and Luke Harrison(38 IPs, 2.92). IU has so many long relief options heading into '18 that, again, the obvious gap here should close some. I really don't see guys like Herrin, Sabol, Beauchamp, Kryzko, Manus, Sommer, Eaton equaling those #s, but the sheer # of options gives one optimism.

As far as closers go, Lloyd((2.23, 9 saves) is very comparable to Ryan Halstead(2.89, 11 saves).

So what does it add up to? How close can the 4.58, 50 HR staff from last year come to the 2.64, 18 HR staff of 2013? I have to think there will be a huge improvement. Looking at the 2012 team, the team era was 4.54. I don't expect to cut nearly 2.00 off the team era. I'll guess we get it down to 3.20 with 30 HRs given up.

The '13 team won 75.3% of its games the '17 team 58.3%.If we played 58 games like last year, a 66% WP would put us at 39-19. I feel like we can do a little better than that......so I'll go 42-16.

Again, all of this is based on no major injuries to key players......if we were to lose any of Miller, Lloyd, Sowers, Stievers or Milto it would change things significantly.

I'd like to hear your predictions.....................

 

[rcaulfie]

I would love to see another team like we had in '13 and '14.....but we are a ways away from that. Just look at the numbers of those 4 guys - no comparison. I try not to compare current teams to them, studs like Schwarber and Travis (and I would add Denato to that) don't come along often. I was looking at their HS numbers one time to try to compare them to recent recruits, and we haven't even had anything like them since. That team should have made a run at the whole thing, and I think they would have if that ending against Stanford went our way.....such a shame, looking back at it.

I would rather compare this team to our last few, and I believe this team is the best since then. I'm hopeful, anyway. I really try to look for improvement from the year before and if we can do that, I will be happy. I'm excited to see what Sowers will do. I think he is going to use the NCAA tourney from last year as a springboard and just blow up. I've expected a lot more out of him, and was disappointed in his first couple of years....but last year, with the ending he had, I think he is going to reach a lot closer to his potential. And if Miller can as well, and Lloyd, Gorski....I'm optimistic. Pitching should be improved, as well, and if the bullpen can not let us down like early to middle of last year, that's worth a huge record improvement right there. I think a 5-game improvement -- winning 5 games that we lost last year, to put us 20 over .500 (or would that be considered a 10 game increase??) is not asking too much. Can't wait for the season to start!!!

 

[Charlesroast]

Thanks, you bring back some great memories and the comparisons are interesting. Couple of memories: the ‘13 team looked beaten in the 1st game of the CWS regional at home against Valpo, bottom of 9th
Chad Clark comes to the plate Hoosiers down 1. As he is coming to the plate granddaughter ask me if he can do anything and I barely got out a lengthy no when he went yard to left field and the Hoosiers advanved. I also can still see the ball Travis hit off Jameis Winston in Tallahasse as the Hoosiers swept the Noles to earn trip to Ohama.

Bad memory, the ‘14 team was arguably better although they lost Halstead early in the season. Unfortunately a very unlikely walk homer by Stanford kept the Hoosier from hosting the super regional that Vandy ended up with on their way to the CWS title.

I believe you are correct in projecting that the ‘18 team top to bottom has more weapons than ‘13/‘14. But no bash brothers like KS & ST, and Demuth and Conley were outstanging themselves. Key hits from others, Clark’s homer most notably, were common. Big hits in key situations produce wins, this team seems to have more hitters, will they hit with RISP and 2 outs.

Those teams had good pitching, Slegers likely starter for Twins this year and 4-5 guys still getting paid to play. Joey DeNato was lights out, followed a good year in ‘13 with a 13-1 record and over 100 innings in ‘14. WCC was an enigma, good stuff, some success in ‘13 but always struggled finding the plate and never reached what seemed great potential.

Need a stoppernand right now Stiever seems the most likely candidate. To have the year we want we need big improvement in pitching, lot of live arms need a few to emerge over the course of the season and even then it’s baseballand anything can happen. Look at UofL last year loaded offensively and dominant pitching and one of those “any given day” situations and they don’t get to Omaha.

 

[Charlesroast]

Well said and shorter than my ramble.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Thanks, you bring back some great memories and the comparisons are interesting. Couple of memories: the ‘13 team looked beaten in the 1st game of the CWS regional at home against Valpo, bottom of 9th
Chad Clark comes to the plate Hoosiers down 1. As he is coming to the plate granddaughter ask me if he can do anything and I barely got out a lengthy no when he went yard to left field and the Hoosiers advanved. I also can still see the ball Travis hit off Jameis Winston in Tallahasse as the Hoosiers swept the Noles to earn trip to Ohama.

Bad memory, the ‘14 team was arguably better although they lost Halstead early in the season. Unfortunately a very unlikely walk homer by Stanford kept the Hoosier from hosting the super regional that Vandy ended up with on their way to the CWS title.

I believe you are correct in projecting that the ‘18 team top to bottom has more weapons than ‘13/‘14. But no bash brothers like KS & ST, and Demuth and Conley were outstanging themselves. Key hits from others, Clark’s homer most notably, were common. Big hits in key situations produce wins, this team seems to have more hitters, will they hit with RISP and 2 outs.

Those teams had good pitching, Slegers likely starter for Twins this year and 4-5 guys still getting paid to play. Joey DeNato was lights out, followed a good year in ‘13 with a 13-1 record and over 100 innings in ‘14. WCC was an enigma, good stuff, some success in ‘13 but always struggled finding the plate and never reached what seemed great potential.

Need a stoppernand right now Stiever seems the most likely candidate. To have the year we want we need big improvement in pitching, lot of live arms need a few to emerge over the course of the season and even then it’s baseballand anything can happen. Look at UofL last year loaded offensively and dominant pitching and one of those “any given day” situations and they don’t get to Omaha.

I had completely forgotten about that Clark HR, but I sure do remember the '14 walk-off by Stanford. That one was painful. Thanks also for the Winston reference. I had forgotten about that as well. Of course that was before his football fame kicked into gear.

I think it's interesting that you bring up '13 & '14 teams, because I agree the '14 team was probably the better team. '13 was one of those magical seasons, when the success was an entirely new experience. The '14 team was more experienced and probably better, but I wonder if the edge was gone a little bit. Being an old fart, it reminds me of the '75 & '76 IU bball teams. To my mind, '75 was more fun than '76, until May got hurt and we lost that horrible game to UK. '76 was more the veteran team, but was also on a mission because of the '75 loss. But the '76 win was almost a relief as a loss at that point would have been devastating.

I know someone on the team and have occasional conversions with him. It seems to me that this team has a very interesting mix of vets and younger talent and there is a confidence level but also a real hunger on the part of the young guys to show what they can do. I just like the mix and the vibe. I think this team will have fun but also will have an edge about it. But we'll have to see.......

What was really interesting about the '12 & '13 #s which went from a 4.54 era to 2.64. That seems like an extraordinary improvement. Have you followed college baseball enough to judge how uncommon that type of improvement is? I will say that from watching some Fall scrimmages I was mildly disappointed in the performances by some of the pitchers from whom we need to see improvement, and very encouraged about the offense, especially Miller, Fineman, and Logan K.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

I would love to see another team like we had in '13 and '14.....but we are a ways away from that. Just look at the numbers of those 4 guys - no comparison. I try not to compare current teams to them, studs like Schwarber and Travis (and I would add Denato to that) don't come along often. I was looking at their HS numbers one time to try to compare them to recent recruits, and we haven't even had anything like them since. That team should have made a run at the whole thing, and I think they would have if that ending against Stanford went our way.....such a shame, looking back at it.

I would rather compare this team to our last few, and I believe this team is the best since then. I'm hopeful, anyway. I really try to look for improvement from the year before and if we can do that, I will be happy. I'm excited to see what Sowers will do. I think he is going to use the NCAA tourney from last year as a springboard and just blow up. I've expected a lot more out of him, and was disappointed in his first couple of years....but last year, with the ending he had, I think he is going to reach a lot closer to his potential. And if Miller can as well, and Lloyd, Gorski....I'm optimistic. Pitching should be improved, as well, and if the bullpen can not let us down like early to middle of last year, that's worth a huge record improvement right there. I think a 5-game improvement -- winning 5 games that we lost last year, to put us 20 over .500 (or would that be considered a 10 game increase??) is not asking too much. Can't wait for the season to start!!!

I just don't know about Sowers.....he was so awful early on and so good at the end. Is he going to settle in somewhere in the middle? I don't have the #s handy, but it seems to me he was in the .230s 1/3 of the way through the season. To get up to .293 at the end he must have hit .350 or so the last 2/3 ot the year.

The guy I'm more comfortable with as far as improvement goes is Miller. He just naturally seems a lot better than .272 with 10 HRs. Also, he was really smoking the ball in the Fall.

 

[Charlesroast]

I had completely forgotten about that Clark HR, but I sure do remember the '14 walk-off by Stanford. That one was painful. Thanks also for the Winston reference. I had forgotten about that as well. Of course that was before his football fame kicked into gear.

I think it's interesting that you bring up '13 & '14 teams, because I agree the '14 team was probably the better team. '13 was one of those magical seasons, when the success was an entirely new experience. The '14 team was more experienced and probably better, but I wonder if the edge was gone a little bit. Being an old fart, it reminds me of the '75 & '76 IU bball teams. To my mind, '75 was more fun than '76, until May got hurt and we lost that horrible game to UK. '76 was more the veteran team, but was also on a mission because of the '75 loss. But the '76 win was almost a relief as a loss at that point would have been devastating.

I know someone on the team and have occasional conversions with him. It seems to me that this team has a very interesting mix of vets and younger talent and there is a confidence level but also a real hunger on the part of the young guys to show what they can do. I just like the mix and the vibe. I think this team will have fun but also will have an edge about it. But we'll have to see.......

What was really interesting about the '12 & '13 #s which went from a 4.54 era to 2.64. That seems like an extraordinary improvement. Have you followed college baseball enough to judge how uncommon that type of improvement is? I will say that from watching some Fall scrimmages I was mildly disappointed in the performances by some of the pitchers from whom we need to see improvement, and very encouraged about the offense, especially Miller, Fineman, and Logan K.[/]

 

[Charlesroast]

Ouch, the ‘75 Dayton was the worst basketball experience of my life. We were there for that one and the Bloomington “head slap” game that served as some extra incentive for UK.

You make a great point regarding the achievements of ‘75 & ‘13 and the different atmosphere of ‘76 & ‘14. I think the 75 loss was mostly a. combination of unfortunate circumstances against a good and highly motivated less talented opponent. For me ‘14 was just baseball and any given game.

I was encouraged by Coach Bunn’s resume, I hope to see big improvement, perhaps not 2 points of ERA, some improvement in Beauchamp, Saalfrank, and even Milto and Stiever. I didn’t see any fall ball but the reports seem consistent with your observations. I didn’t really pick up college baseball until 12 so I don’t know how much improvement one can expect between seasons. The kids practically play yearround anymore so consistency in coaching seems to me to be a potential wildcard.

Anxious for play ball,

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Ouch, the ‘75 Dayton was the worst basketball experience of my life. We were there for that one and the Bloomington “head slap” game that served as some extra incentive for UK.

You make a great point regarding the achievements of ‘75 & ‘13 and the different atmosphere of ‘76 & ‘14. I think the 75 loss was mostly a. combination of unfortunate circumstances against a good and highly motivated less talented opponent. For me ‘14 was just baseball and any given game.

I was encouraged by Coach Bunn’s resume, I hope to see big improvement, perhaps not 2 points of ERA, some improvement in Beauchamp, Saalfrank, and even Milto and Stiever. I didn’t see any fall ball but the reports seem consistent with your observations. I didn’t really pick up college baseball until 12 so I don’t know how much improvement one can expect between seasons. The kids practically play yearround anymore so consistency in coaching seems to me to be a potential wildcard.

Anxious for play ball,

If the head slap game was the '75 game at Bloomington I was there as well. What I remember best about that game was how great IU looked. It was a rout, and there was a big "we're #1 chant" that came up spontaneously. That was the first game when everyone knew what was up with that team. Or at least that's the way I remember it. I've always thought the '75 team was 6-10 points better than the '76 team and 12-15 points better than anyone else that year (with May). Green & Laz were very good. The '76 team basically had a very short and young bench, and it showed throughout the year. Abernathy, while good, was not the player Green was. So I have mixed feelings when I see the '76 team statute and the others in AH.......nothing for the very best team IU ever had? So it goes...........

I was a high school kid in '76, but a huge IU fan. I remember going outside and shooting a basketball for about an hour immediately after that game. I would say that that loss and the football loss against Purdue when AT was a senior (on the missed 35 yd FG) that cost AT the Heisman were the lowest single points of my IU fandom.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Looking at this teams potential.....wanted to compare this team with the '13 Omaha-bound team.

That team went 49-16, for a .752 WP. Last years team went 34-24, for a .586 WP.

Assuming no major injuries (huge assumption I know), what record might this team have?

On the face of it, there appear to be two major differences between '13 & '18. First and foremost, the starting pitching. Second, the '13 team had the fearsome foursome of Schwarber, Travis, DeMuth, and Donley at the plate.

Looking at the teams' offensive production, you can see that this years foursome of Miller, Lloyd, Sowers, and Gorski has a ways to go to match the production of '13's big 4:

Schwarber,,,,,,,,.366/.647 18 HRs
Travis,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.316/.545 10 HRs
DeMuth,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.377/.545 5 HRs
Donley,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,..358/.504 5 HRs v.


Lloyd,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.301/.554 11 HRs
Sowers,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.291/.536 13 HRs
Miller,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.272/.464 10 HRs
Gorski,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.288/.400 4 HRs

As you can see, the '17 guys were as productive as the '13 guys power-wise. I was really surprised to see that Sowers ended up at .291, as he was in the .230s for 1/3 of the year (it seemed). On the other hand, he was insanely hot the last 10 games or so. All in all, we might expect Sowers' and Lloyd's #s to be a little better in '18, but maybe not too much.

I would expect the big # increases to be with Miller & Gorski. I wouldn't be surprised to see Miller go .300 with 15-16 HRs......Gorski might be .300 with 8-9 HRs.

Now, where I see the '18 team to have a big advantage over the '13 team is in offensive depth.

While we all loved the '13 team, we knew there was a big drop-off in productivity between the 'big 4' and the rest of the line-up. Looking at the stats from that year, the 5 other guys who got the most ABs were Michael Basel (.313/.446, 3 HRs), Casey Smith (.309, 5 HRs), Will Nolden (.303, 5 HRs), Chad Clark (.232, 2nd on team, behind KS, in SBs), and Justin Cureton (.216).

I have to think Fineman, Bradley/Dunham, Bonnell/Barr, Houston, and Logan K. will be considerably more productive than the remainder of the '13 line-up. The '13 team overall hit .301/.443, with 53 HRs. The '17 team hit .267/.438, with 75 HRs (19 by Dedelow). Overall, I think this team could realistically go .290/.460 with 75 HRs.

Now the big question------pitching overall, but especially the starters.

The '13 staff had an overall era of 2.64, while giving up only 18 HRs. The '17 staff was at 4.58, and gave up 50 HRs.

The '13 staff had a set 4 man rotation of Aaron Slegers(18 starts, 9-2, 2.04)), Joey DeNato(18 starts, 2.52, 10-2), Kyle Hart(15 starts, 8-2, 3.01), and Will Cousen-Carr(11 starts, 5-0, 1.93). In comparison, the '17 starters were Stiever(14 starts, 4-4, 4.31), Hobbe(12 starts, 2-5, 6.61), Milto(10 starts, 6-3, 3.93), and Kruger(6 starts, 5-2, 2.82).

While the #s are starkly different, I don't think many fans going into '13 thought that starting rotation was going to be nearly as good as they turned out to be. I'll defer to others here, as I didn't follow the '12 team closely, but I do think Cousen-Carr (at least) was a big surprise. If Kruger starts, the trio of Stiever, Milto, and Kruger could rival Slegers, DeNato, and Hart. The 4th guy is a big ??, but there are so many possibilities that it would seem likely that we will have a quality #4 guy by mid-season.

In long relief, the '13 team featured Scott Effross(62.2 IPs, 6-1, 2.44) and Luke Harrison(38 IPs, 2.92). IU has so many long relief options heading into '18 that, again, the obvious gap here should close some. I really don't see guys like Herrin, Sabol, Beauchamp, Kryzko, Manus, Sommer, Eaton equaling those #s, but the sheer # of options gives one optimism.

As far as closers go, Lloyd((2.23, 9 saves) is very comparable to Ryan Halstead(2.89, 11 saves).

So what does it add up to? How close can the 4.58, 50 HR staff from last year come to the 2.64, 18 HR staff of 2013? I have to think there will be a huge improvement. Looking at the 2012 team, the team era was 4.54. I don't expect to cut nearly 2.00 off the team era. I'll guess we get it down to 3.20 with 30 HRs given up.

The '13 team won 75.3% of its games the '17 team 58.3%.If we played 58 games like last year, a 66% WP would put us at 39-19. I feel like we can do a little better than that......so I'll go 42-16.

Again, all of this is based on no major injuries to key players......if we were to lose any of Miller, Lloyd, Sowers, Stievers or Milto it would change things significantly.

I'd like to hear your predictions.....................

Looking at this teams potential.....wanted to compare this team with the '13 Omaha-bound team.

That team went 49-16, for a .752 WP. Last years team went 34-24, for a .586 WP.

Assuming no major injuries (huge assumption I know), what record might this team have?

On the face of it, there appear to be two major differences between '13 & '18. First and foremost, the starting pitching. Second, the '13 team had the fearsome foursome of Schwarber, Travis, DeMuth, and Donley at the plate.

Looking at the teams' offensive production, you can see that this years foursome of Miller, Lloyd, Sowers, and Gorski has a ways to go to match the production of '13's big 4:

Schwarber,,,,,,,,.366/.647 18 HRs
Travis,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.316/.545 10 HRs
DeMuth,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.377/.545 5 HRs
Donley,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,..358/.504 5 HRs v.


Lloyd,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.301/.554 11 HRs
Sowers,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.291/.536 13 HRs
Miller,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.272/.464 10 HRs
Gorski,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.288/.400 4 HRs

As you can see, the '17 guys were as productive as the '13 guys power-wise. I was really surprised to see that Sowers ended up at .291, as he was in the .230s for 1/3 of the year (it seemed). On the other hand, he was insanely hot the last 10 games or so. All in all, we might expect Sowers' and Lloyd's #s to be a little better in '18, but maybe not too much.

I would expect the big # increases to be with Miller & Gorski. I wouldn't be surprised to see Miller go .300 with 15-16 HRs......Gorski might be .300 with 8-9 HRs.

Now, where I see the '18 team to have a big advantage over the '13 team is in offensive depth.

While we all loved the '13 team, we knew there was a big drop-off in productivity between the 'big 4' and the rest of the line-up. Looking at the stats from that year, the 5 other guys who got the most ABs were Michael Basel (.313/.446, 3 HRs), Casey Smith (.309, 5 HRs), Will Nolden (.303, 5 HRs), Chad Clark (.232, 2nd on team, behind KS, in SBs), and Justin Cureton (.216).

I have to think Fineman, Bradley/Dunham, Bonnell/Barr, Houston, and Logan K. will be considerably more productive than the remainder of the '13 line-up. The '13 team overall hit .301/.443, with 53 HRs. The '17 team hit .267/.438, with 75 HRs (19 by Dedelow). Overall, I think this team could realistically go .290/.460 with 75 HRs.

Now the big question------pitching overall, but especially the starters.

The '13 staff had an overall era of 2.64, while giving up only 18 HRs. The '17 staff was at 4.58, and gave up 50 HRs.

The '13 staff had a set 4 man rotation of Aaron Slegers(18 starts, 9-2, 2.04)), Joey DeNato(18 starts, 2.52, 10-2), Kyle Hart(15 starts, 8-2, 3.01), and Will Cousen-Carr(11 starts, 5-0, 1.93). In comparison, the '17 starters were Stiever(14 starts, 4-4, 4.31), Hobbe(12 starts, 2-5, 6.61), Milto(10 starts, 6-3, 3.93), and Kruger(6 starts, 5-2, 2.82).

While the #s are starkly different, I don't think many fans going into '13 thought that starting rotation was going to be nearly as good as they turned out to be. I'll defer to others here, as I didn't follow the '12 team closely, but I do think Cousen-Carr (at least) was a big surprise. If Kruger starts, the trio of Stiever, Milto, and Kruger could rival Slegers, DeNato, and Hart. The 4th guy is a big ??, but there are so many possibilities that it would seem likely that we will have a quality #4 guy by mid-season.

In long relief, the '13 team featured Scott Effross(62.2 IPs, 6-1, 2.44) and Luke Harrison(38 IPs, 2.92). IU has so many long relief options heading into '18 that, again, the obvious gap here should close some. I really don't see guys like Herrin, Sabol, Beauchamp, Kryzko, Manus, Sommer, Eaton equaling those #s, but the sheer # of options gives one optimism.

As far as closers go, Lloyd((2.23, 9 saves) is very comparable to Ryan Halstead(2.89, 11 saves).

So what does it add up to? How close can the 4.58, 50 HR staff from last year come to the 2.64, 18 HR staff of 2013? I have to think there will be a huge improvement. Looking at the 2012 team, the team era was 4.54. I don't expect to cut nearly 2.00 off the team era. I'll guess we get it down to 3.20 with 30 HRs given up.

The '13 team won 75.3% of its games the '17 team 58.3%.If we played 58 games like last year, a 66% WP would put us at 39-19. I feel like we can do a little better than that......so I'll go 42-16.

Again, all of this is based on no major injuries to key players......if we were to lose any of Miller, Lloyd, Sowers, Stievers or Milto it would change things significantly.

I'd like to hear your predictions.....................

Went back and looked at my preseason guesses to see how they look v. our present stats,,,,,,,,,

Offensively, I thought we might be around .290 BA/.460 SA, with about 75 HRs(est. 58 games). We're not too far off that right now at .286/.457/19. Those #s compare to .267/.438/75 HRs last year.

Pitching-wise, I was hoping for a 3.20 era, and giving up 30 HRs(est. 58 games).We've been considerably better than that so far at 2.66 with 8 HRs in 19 games. That compares to last year at .458 and 50 HRs in 58 games(ouch). Those #s aren't too far off those for the great '13 team, which was at 2.64 and 18 HRs in 65 games. As a result, we're well ahead of my projected record of 42-16. Problem is.....the schedule from here on out will be more competitive, especially with us playing a hard Big 10 schedule. 27-12 the rest of the way would put us at my projected 42-16. But we don't get any v. RU or PSU, while we play 6 v. Iowa & Illinois, 2 surprise teams. We also miss UM & MSU, both of which have disappointed, but get Minnesota, who may be the 2nd best team in the Big 10...worse yet, we have 2 games v. UL & UK. On the other hand, both Nebraska & Maryland look weaker then expected so far.

So....all-in-all a tough task, but perhaps doable, esp. if we can get back to playing D like we thought we would. I hope warmer weather will help there......

 

[ptrich]

Went back and looked at my preseason guesses to see how they look v. our present stats,,,,,,,,,

Offensively, I thought we might be around .290 BA/.460 SA, with about 75 HRs(est. 58 games). We're not too far off that right now at .286/.457/19. Those #s compare to .267/.438/75 HRs last year.

Pitching-wise, I was hoping for a 3.20 era, and giving up 30 HRs(est. 58 games).We've been considerably better than that so far at 2.66 with 8 HRs in 19 games. That compares to last year at .458 and 50 HRs in 58 games(ouch). Those #s aren't too far off those for the great '13 team, which was at 2.64 and 18 HRs in 65 games. As a result, we're well ahead of my projected record of 42-16. Problem is.....the schedule from here on out will be more competitive, especially with us playing a hard Big 10 schedule. 27-12 the rest of the way would put us at my projected 42-16. But we don't get any v. RU or PSU, while we play 6 v. Iowa & Illinois, 2 surprise teams. We also miss UM & MSU, both of which have disappointed, but get Minnesota, who may be the 2nd best team in the Big 10...worse yet, we have 2 games v. UL & UK. On the other hand, both Nebraska & Maryland look weaker then expected so far.

So....all-in-all a tough task, but perhaps doable, esp. if we can get back to playing D like we thought we would. I hope warmer weather will help there......

Yeah, we have a tougher conference schedule than many of the other teams, but I think I prefer it that way. If we have the team we think we have, then we are going to get the chance to show it, and if we take care of business, we could host a regional/super regional. BTW, our game against Wright St is no gimme on Tues. They will come in with a winning record and a win over Cincy, and we know how our game with them went. Who knows, with IU ranked, Wright St. might see this as a big enough game for their resume to throw a weekend starter at us. Hopefully, it won't be another Cincy game.