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Kelly on Trump

C
hoosboot said:
It's not a zero sum game. I agree with a lot that you are saying, but she has to hit a lot of buttons to drive her voters to the poll and that's one of them. My problem with the campaign right now is that it's the loudest one.
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Anybody whose primary motivation to vote is their opinion of Donald Trump -- pro or con -- is already going to vote, can't wait to vote, would crawl over broken glass to do it, and is absolutely dead set who they're voting for.

The notion that there are people who aren't all that motivated to vote but who will become motivated to vote because John Kelly thinks Donald Trump is a fascist who aspires to be Hitler is delusional.

And I think that messaging cohesion is extremely important in the homestretch. She needs to be laser focused in her messaging and where it's directed...not throwing out a cacophony.
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Good news

hoot1
snarlcakes said:
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Obesity declined for the first time in a long time. If the government is going to try and bring down healthcare costs, subsidizing Ozempic should probably be at the top of the list.
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Granted obesity causes health pronlems. Nevertheless, given the side effects of Ozempic, question whether the government subsidizing Ozempic would reduce health care costs.

Might even increase costs given the side effects.
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Congrats Democrats

Marvin the Martian
mcmurtry66 said:
Limiting the pool is rarely the way to find the best candidate
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I don't know how many people are hired by the Executive Branch, it appears Trump had very few minorities or women in his White House.
www.theguardian.com

Omarosa's exit highlights lack of diversity at Trump White House

With an administration dominated by white men, ‘black diversity in the White House is almost oxymoronic at this point,’ says former RNC chair
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Why don't people find that limiting? Is it because many of naturally assume a White male IS automatically the most qualified?

I'll go back to a point I made a few months ago, and in a way @TheOriginalHappyGoat touched on it in his reply, often times 'best" is who we get along with. My point was going back to the 84 Olympics with Barkley not making the team. When Felling pointed out he had been leading the tryouts in points and rebounds Knight replied that he wasn't putting together an all-star team but a team to win the Olympics.

Barkley may have been the best there, certainly he was one of the best. He wasn't asked onto the team. There was something more than being best.

Why do we discount that women and minorities can't be the best by some definition such as willingness to play as part of the team?
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Kelly on Trump

Aloha Hoosier
Palmbeachhoosier said:
You claim to ba military guy. You are telling me that Trump yields enough power to actually carry out this plan. You are more delusional than I thought.
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I don't claim it, I was a senior Navy officer. I'm retired. Unless martial law is declared, no, I don't believe the flag officers would carry out an order to use the military on US civilians. Depending on the situation, he could use the National Guard in a US civilian setting. However, we should expect that our Commander in Chief is sane and doesn't have insane wishes or give insane orders.
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Kelly on Trump

C
CO. Hoosier said:
I’ve always heard and understood that the typical low turnout voter would be a young male, particularly a young minority male. How does motivating that group help Kamala?
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This is something Axe and Murphy also touched on in their podcast.

I find this super interesting is that one of the premises of a lot of the strategy on both sides in this campaign is that the coalitions have shifted to the point where, unlike in the Obama days and for a lot of our of our professional lives, where kind of reliable voters were Republican voters, and where irregular voters, casual voters were Democratic voters who you had to worry about turning out.​
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The numbers have shown all through the cycle that Trump is more reliant on those voters. And you see that in his gains with Latinos and Black voters and some of his gains with young voters. And Democratic voters have become more regular reliable voters because they're the better educated voters. Democrats now kind of dominate college brothers. So how does that play in what you said just now about the Michigan folks?​
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An extremely good pollster I've known a long time said….I'm not going to predict this race because we have to fill the survey with a lot of questions about demographics and stuff. We bolted this on for a cross tab and something else we were looking at. But it was clear that it's going to be young turnout that'll make her break her in Michigan. You know, other, older African American men, you can break it out in other groups where she needs a lot. But if you, if you just go to the voter list and survey it and assume a big juicy presidential turnout, she was ahead.​
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If you start stripping it more to the old Republican off-year model and crunchy old Marine colonels retired, then Trump was doing really well. So it was kind of a back to the future thing. It's tied. But, but she, she needs those casual people to feel like there's a bandwagon to jump on a change here, I think, to close it.​
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The good news for Harris in this is that she reportedly has assembled a really good voter mobilization team. But the question is whether or not she's closed the sale on her enough to convince those people to mobilize. If she does that, then she'll probably win. But if her closing pitch is that Donald Trump is a reckless prick, then that's not going to motivate those voters.
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Got a phone call yesterday from my guy in the ticket office

M
CC Mac said:
My main issue is committing to season until I see the dates.
I have a couple Saturday’s next fall that I will be out of town.
We are probably months away from the complete schedule with dates coming out
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I'd wait to see who the coach will be.

If Cig's still here next year, you'll be able to sell the tickets easy enough........
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Kelly on Trump

P
Ohio Guy said:
Hopefully it's all hypothetical and we'll never have to worry about it, but Trump himself has mentioned the Insurrection Act of 1807.

I don't know if he'd actually be able to pull it off, but you're not paying attention if you haven't heard him talk about it.
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Yes I heard say he would be dictator on day one. Saying he would overturn many of Biden's executive orders just as Biden did on day one. I also heard him say that he would send the military and national guard to go after illegal aliens which are by definition criminals.
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Kelly on Trump

TheOriginalHappyGoat
crazed_hoosier2 said:
Oh I agree. The polling margins right now are razor thin in the places that matter. Either candidate can win this race.

I do tend to think that Trump probably has AZ and NC sealed up. GA maybe less certain, but probably is. The AJC's poll is usually the one handicappers pay the most attention to and their final one had Trump +4. They had Biden +1 in 2020...and that's right about where it ended up.

If that turns out to be right, then it's kind of the scenario we've been talking about for a while: in order to win, Harris needs to sweep the "Blue Wall" states...Trump needs to pick off one of them. And I think that both of those outcomes are well within the realm of possibility.
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Trump is threatening in Nevada, too. That's where it gets really fun because a Trump win in Nevada puts the tie in play.
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Congrats Democrats

TheOriginalHappyGoat
Marvin the Martian said:
Is there any way to categorically know who the BEST person is? I've been involved in hiring, it usually has come down to hair-splitting. I can't say that I've ever been in a hire where one person came in and was clearly "the best".

Mostly I have hired programmers. As an example, we have had 1 person who seemed to have more experience in the language we needed, someone with more overall programming experience, and someone with good experience but excellent at communication (since they often worked directly with clients communication was important). I don't know that I ever sat through a hiring cycle and had one person who was the best in the language we most needed, best in all the other languages we used, was the best communicator and at writing documentation, and would work for what we paid.

I think we tend to justify our decisions after the fact with "they were the best" when in reality we were splitting hairs we couldn't really see.
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I've never had to hire for a highly technical, expert position, but in my experience my best hires were when I ignored expertise and went with personality.
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Kelly on Trump

C
hoosboot said:
Have to agree to disagree. The polls have been within the MOE the entire time. It's silly to think there are large numbers of voters out there going back and forth "I want Trump, nah I want Harris, nah I want Trump, nah I want Harris, nah I want Trump" instead of recognizing that it's been a ridiculously close election all along.
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Oh I agree. The polling margins right now are razor thin in the places that matter. Either candidate can win this race.

I do tend to think that Trump probably has AZ and NC sealed up. GA maybe less certain, but probably is. The AJC's poll is usually the one handicappers pay the most attention to and their final one had Trump +4. They had Biden +1 in 2020...and that's right about where it ended up.

If that turns out to be right, then it's kind of the scenario we've been talking about for a while: in order to win, Harris needs to sweep the "Blue Wall" states...Trump needs to pick off one of them. And I think that both of those outcomes are well within the realm of possibility.
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Kelly on Trump

Ohio Guy
Palmbeachhoosier said:
Explain to me how a president will yield enough power to get the military to stage a takeover? This is the most ridiculous thing the democrats have ever proposed.
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Hopefully it's all hypothetical and we'll never have to worry about it, but Trump himself has mentioned the Insurrection Act of 1807.

I don't know if he'd actually be able to pull it off, but you're not paying attention if you haven't heard him talk about it.
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Kelly on Trump

M
ChicagoFineForNow said:
Gotta read the tea leaves.

She isn't actually gonna "give everyone $25K for a home, put price controls on grocers, tax unrealized gains, etc."

Sound familiar?
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Hmm. Talking about her economic policy that she will absolutely try and enact(even though Dems won't also control congress) vs. saying you're going to use the military against people who don't agree with you.

What kind of tea do you drink?
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Kelly on Trump

TheOriginalHappyGoat
crazed_hoosier2 said:
Do you think the way for Harris to get these voters to the polls is by directing attention to how much of an asshole Donald Trump is?
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Maybe for some of them. For others, it's defending Biden on Israel. For others, it's breaking with Biden on Israel. For some it's doubling down on woke. For others, it's ignoring culture and focusing on jobs. I think she's holding a very difficult hand.
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Kelly on Trump

dbmhoosier
crazed_hoosier2 said:
And....there's Frank Luntz saying the exact same thing that Axelrod and Murphy are saying.

If the Access Hollywood "pussy grabbing" tape that was released in 2016 had featured any normal politician rather than Donald Trump, that politician would've been immediately ruined. For a real-world, timely example of this, see Republican candidate for governor in NC Mark Robinson. When the Stein folks released the oppo they came up with on Robinson, it was all she wrote for him. He may as well stop spending money on his own campaign and save it to give to other candidates.

But have Dems ever pondered why that tape didn't sink Donald Trump? I'm sure it's frustrating for them -- in a sane world, such a revelation would end a presidential campaign.

The reason it didn't sink him is because of what Axe, Murphy, and now Luntz are saying. Trump's basically impervious to that sort of broadside.
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Just FYI, it was the RINOs that put out that smear on Robinson. Stein didn't have anything.
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Congrats Democrats

Marvin the Martian
BradStevens said:
Is it just a question of “qualified” or is it a question of “best person available for this job?”
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Is there any way to categorically know who the BEST person is? I've been involved in hiring, it usually has come down to hair-splitting. I can't say that I've ever been in a hire where one person came in and was clearly "the best".

Mostly I have hired programmers. As an example, we have had 1 person who seemed to have more experience in the language we needed, someone with more overall programming experience, and someone with good experience but excellent at communication (since they often worked directly with clients communication was important). I don't know that I ever sat through a hiring cycle and had one person who was the best in the language we most needed, best in all the other languages we used, was the best communicator and at writing documentation, and would work for what we paid.

I think we tend to justify our decisions after the fact with "they were the best" when in reality we were splitting hairs we couldn't really see.
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