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Polls - - a week out

Here’s Virginia


1,995,570 have voted early so far compared to 2,445,138. Turnout data is very stable…we are 40% of total votes cast. I believe today is the last day of early voting in person.

1. There is a decline from 889,000 accepted mail in ballots for all 2020 compared to 403,000 for 2024. There will be a few more ballots received before Election Day it’s easy to look at the decline of 450,000 in votes this year and match it up to the decline in Mail in ballots.

2. The AA voters and the NOVA area seems to be lagging in overall early voting numbers.

3. To offset that decline GOP and rural votes are up in early voting over 2020

Is anyone for Micah Beckwith?

I don’t know Braun. But I’m very concerned about his political acumen because he was the only person in the room at the state GOP convention who didn’t know about the knife in his back. His administration could get run over by the legislature and his own Lt Governor.
This is why I think the situation is likely to lead to a revitalization of the state Democratic Party. Maybe we’ll see evidence of that next Tuesday (McCormick could well win). If not, we’ll be seeing it manifest somehow soon thereafter.

The GOP is being deliberately divided, just like it is elsewhere. It’s reminiscent of the hijacking of the Tea Party -- which began life as a movement about fiscal policies…but was quickly seized upon by the cultural right on everything from same-sex marriage to abortion.

Polls - - a week out

If Trump loses, it’s because of fraud, right? Rigged election?
No. Not necessarily. But watch what Halperin said on Tucker. He thinks Trump will win and Harris has a shot but it's low. He talked about outrage on both sides depending on what happens. Dems will loot and burn no matter how big Trump's margin is.

What he said about Harris is... she's unlikely to win but if she did it's almost certainly in a near 2000 style squeaker. He was talking about Shapiro and Whitmer and how they'd better be transparent and be able to explain any strange voting patterns or trends coming out of Philly or Detroit. If turnout is 50%, 55%, 60%, etc throughout every precinct, country, etc throughout the states but somehow magically 90%+ of the black people in Philly and Detroit who are the lowest propensity voters in those states all cast a mail in ballot for Harris the Governors had better have a good explanation for how something like they can happen. And there's only one way something like that can happen even if you ran the election 1000 x's. He knows they can't explain it. But that won't happen. Whitmer and Shapiro have their eyes on 2028.

To spot voter fraud, you look for weird trends or anomalies that only benefit one side and only happen in certain areas. This is Poly Sci 101.

Polls - - a week out

An interesting analysis from former Bush Chief of staff and veteran of multiple campaigns Matthew Dowd.

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The detail numbers are available for Georgia. Richmond county is down to 76.5% of its 2020 numbers. Early vote by mail for Richmond is well down but the voters have had the better part of three weeks plus two Sundays to get out and vote. There are numerous sites in the county to vote early in. This is very similar to Shelby county TN (Memphis)….a strong D/AA county is 25% off. Historically, in Memphis if the early voting is off by 25% then that will be about the difference on Election Day. I’m really surprised by these numbers

Is anyone for Micah Beckwith?

I think what happened with Beckwith is a symptom of the increasing influence of the social right in the Indiana GOP. It’s very concerning.

I know Mike Braun a little bit. He’s a good guy, very smart. I have no issue at all with him, I even cut him a check.

But he’s obviously not being helped by Beckwith’s presence on the ticket. And I honestly don’t think the people responsible for putting him there care.

It’s giving Dems a golden opportunity to get back on their feet in state politics.
I don’t know Braun. But I’m very concerned about his political acumen because he was the only person in the room at the state GOP convention who didn’t know about the knife in his back. His administration could get run over by the legislature and his own Lt Governor.

The next president inherits a remarkable economy

Because the only thing relevant to the ability of a person to participate in a market is the amount of money they have relative to everyone else.

We are probably viewing this situation different, but I suppose I don't get why dismissing relativity is sensible. The additional cash the lower income earner earns or spends has a materially larger benefit vs. a higher dollar quantity of the higher earner. If that lower income individual can provide higher quality food, buy things for the family, etc.

Are you thinking more along the lines of - there is a larger discretionary figure, of which some will be spent on incremental items that benefit the economy as a whole more since even if half of that figure gets spent vs. saved, it has a larger dollar impact on the economy (GDP, job creation, etc.)?

Sounds like Rourke will play

My guess is that they put a slightly extended splint on the nail side and turn him loose... As long as he doesn't try to catch the snap using his thumb tip (straight on) he's good to go...

Handling the snap will be the key... That and handling the pain... M$U will definitely be making an extra effort to whack it while theoretically going for the ball... He can expect to see a couple of late hits (with no calls) just due to their trying to get him out of the game...

He's probably begging to go... This game is part of his NFL resume' and his TEAM leadership cache... The NFL loves Leadership, availability and toughness and so do his Teammates...

If he gets some help from the Special Teams and the Defense we'll light them up in spite of the Refs..., and his injuries...

If the OL can keep him relatively clean I expect that he'll play well enough in the passing game to open up the run game and We Shall Crush Them...
The best ability is availability :cool:

The next president inherits a remarkable economy

I have felt, for decades, that the majority of Russian people are a lot like most Americans were , conservative, Orthodox, independent, and victimized by murderous bolshevik scum.
Read Solzhenitsyn...
I cannot express enough what American military bullying throughout the world has done to our image ....our military industrial surveillance complex relentlessly propagandizes the American people into accepting, even supporting violent criminal acts and lawlessness by our government and her bribed and blackmailed actors.
There are a million dead in Ukraine. Israel is being decimated day by day. Your children are in grave danger, as are mine. My grandson is seven..my granddaughter is six months..
I had twelve of my guys killed in Vietnam...for NOTHING !
I want it to stop.
I won't relent.
Every eastern European I know, and I know a lot living in NW Indiana, hates the Russians.

Polls - - a week out

Emerson has Harris up by a hair in Nevada.

+3 D was the registration edge - we can see with our own eyes now that it’s +5 R with over 2/3 of the votes in. Likely 70%. That is why I stopped looking at polls as we can see with our own eyes what turnout is shaping up to be in Nevada and it’s not +3D. We should see around 4500 to 5000 mail ballots from Washoe drop today that could be +300 too 400 D. That is not even the daily gain the GOP gets in just one rural county-Lyon-this week. Looking at trends with 70% of the vote in….younger, AA and Hispanic voters are still lagging 2020 numbers.

The registration gains for the GOP over the last four years….we are seeing how this plays out in Nevada. Yes the GOP gained voters in Nevada and that helps the gap between the parties. What also helps is that GOP registered voters have become a little bit older than the D voters over the last four years as some older D voters either switched parties or became inactive. So when younger voters (18-39) have their turnout lower it really affects that D-R ratio. Boring stuff but it’s what makes the difference in NV, NC, AZ and Florida turnout. Frankly in states like TX, WI, MI and PA we have not seen the D/R changes because they don’t register by party but IMO it’s there.
Pubs have cut the deficit by 404k in PA since 2020. Biden won by 80k. People still keep overlooking this. Dems will not come close to the 500k firewall they thought they needed by Tuesday.

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Indiana/Michigan State Prediction Thread

OL an DL are worthy of a LOT of praise. I can't find the stat details but it seemed Coleman was killing us in the first half and was very impressive. The DL took over and ended it.
He had 19 carries for 105 yards, but 46 of them came on 1 run. We contained him well. Even with that big run, they only averaged 3.7 YPC

The next president inherits a remarkable economy

Restaurants are closing like crazy in my neck of the woods. Our packaging vendor said this is the slowest they’ve been in many years
That's a regional thing. Nationally, restaurant sales are up. Not a ton but they are up. Do you know what's down though at restaurants nationally? Alcohol sales. Damn kids aren't drinking! We are failing our youth! Drink more beer and get you kids to as well you assholes!!!

Joel Katt ranking

Call me crazy, but I’m not so confident we get in at 11-1 if we are considered the 4th best B1G team. And at this point, that seems to be the most likely scenario if our 1 loss is at osu. If Oregon, PSU, and osu all finish 11-1 or better in the regular season, we’ll be in the same spot we are now. Are you 96% confident that they’d put 4 B1G teams in?

Alabama will be ranked ahead of us with 2 losses if we’re 11-1. I can absolutely see 4 SEC teams getting in.

With the Group of 5 spot, that would leave 3 spots for the Big 12, ACC, and ND. Not happening.

Even if Bama doesn’t jump us, if ND still has one loss, it will be them and not us.

Unfortunately, I see a scenario with 3 B1G teams, 4 SEC, 3 Big 12 + ACC, 1 GO5, and ND.

I'm telling you, if the CFP committee sees things the same way the polls are right now, we can absolutely be left out at 11-1. I really hope I'm wrong.
The worst B10 scenario for IU at 11-1 is if PSU loses at home to O$U, and then we would be tied for 2nd in the 2nd best P4 conference. Do you think an 11-1 SEC team would get left out? Neither do I. I think it will breakdown like this:

SEC - 4
B10 - 4
ACC - 1
B12 - 1
ND
Boise St

Upcoming SEC games of note:

GA @ Ole Miss
Bama @ LSU
TN @ GA
TX @ TX A&M

They're going to keep piling up losses and a 10-2 SEC team isn't making it over an 11-1 B10 team. It's just not happening. The wildcard in all this would be if a team on the outside wins an automatic berth over an undefeated regular season conference champ. Think Clemson beating Miami. Now the ACC is getting 2 teams. Then Kansas St beating BYU. Now the B12 gets 2 teams. If both of those things happen then we are on the bubble. Our SoS is our worst metric and it's only going to rise the rest of the season, except for that dumpster fire from West Laffy. That game won't help, but kicking their asses is gonna be great!
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Battle of the Sexes

The Texas Medical Association said today that they have received complaints that hospital administrators and their legal teams are stopping doctors from providing medically appropriate care to patients with some pregnancy complications.

In Central Texas, a physician was allegedly instructed to not treat an ectopic pregnancy until a rupture occurred, which puts patient health at serious risk, the letter says.

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Polls - - a week out


A little slower day than expected in Georgia yesterday. Today is the last day for early voting in person and I’m pretty sure they usually get a last minute push…not so much this year as only 196,287 were recorded. 17K in mail ballots came in and they were more AA then normal and that pushed up one number and pushed the other day ever so slightly. White voters dipped a bit to 58.7 and AA is at 26.2. Very slight change as Hispanic and other voters picked up a bit. Younger voters moved the needle a bit to 25.6% of vote for the 18-39 group. That compares to 36% for 2020 and at 72 to 73% of the vote in that needle is getting harder to move. Mostly other stayed overall the same as it’s still much better for the GOP in early in Georgia to date compared to 2020
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