The GOP is basing the idea that Dems won't vote on election day on 2020 results, but that's a dubious proposition. Before 2020 it was GOP voters who voted early, esp in the southern battlegrounds of AZ and NV. That changed in 2020, but a huge part of that was Dems were a lot more Covid conscious and simply preferred to avoid huge crowds.
Most Dem analysts I follow believe there are 2 factors not being addressed, First off they expected a larger increase in GOP participation, based on traditional patterns and a push for early voting among GOP voters. and as a result Dems still have a lead in key states like PA. The GOP optimism comes from a belief that Dem ED vote will be down, but the fact is in a state like PA the early Dem vote only comprised around 13% of Dems who voted on ED in 2020.
That means the Dems have still been able to compile a lead,basically relying on a portion of those who voted early in 2020, as well as new voters. That means the ED vote for Dems in 2024 should be basically intact, and supplemented by new voters and 2020 early voters who shift to ED.That's where the dem GOTV efforts come into play...
By contrast the GOP early vote consists of 93% or so people who voted in 2020. 46% of the 2024 early GOP vote consisted of people who also voted early in 2020. But 47% of current GOP early voters voted on ED in 2020. So in order to maintain their 2020 ED advantage, the GOP is going to have to replace a significant portion who voted on ED in 2020 but chose to vote early this year.
I'd also point out that of the 46% of early vote GOP registered voters who voted by mail again this year, they are coming mainly from counties where Haley did well in the Primary. Also GOP registered voters who voted by mail in 2020 were more likely to vote for Biden than Trump. So among that 46% you're drawing from a pool of GOP registered voters who statistically did not actually vote for Trump 4 yrs ago...
So in a state like PA it's going to boil down to which analysts are correct on their assumption of what the ED vote will look like. Trump has placed an emphasis on attracting young (mainly white) men but that did not show up in the early GOP vote. They are already the most difficult demographic to turn out, and I sure wouldn't put any $$ on a nimrod like Charlie Kirk being able to drive them to the polls to stand in long lines on election day. Women (young and old) are not only showing up in the early numbers, but (based on voting) seem to be far more engaged.
And with the huge gender gap (even wider in PA) it's easy for me to see why my favorite analyst who knew the "red Wave" was non-existant in 2022,based on the same type of available data, continues to say that he'd rather be in the Harris campaign than the Trump campaign. Working in politics for 30 yrs and having a ground level view of the two campaigns, he feels better about the advatges Harris has compared to Trump. Doesn't mean he'll be right this time because he was right in 2022, but I have faith in his analysis...
indianapublicmedia.org
