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The Serious Election Day Thread

Back in the 70s my area was hugely Democrat. Rural, lot of small farmers. Changed away from Dems over the decades since. Farms mostly gone now, lot more houses, no big complexes though. Still rural. I see a bunch of Trump signs. Far fewer Harris. Seems about the same as the Biden Trump election. Although a relative who moved from Philly is so used to that liberal area she's afraid to put out her Harris signs so she gave them to somebody who now has double. Might be a few more Harris/Democrat signs than four years ago.

Sam Harris on Why He's Endorsing Kamala Harris

Everything in that last paragraph is a case against Trump -- to which he makes the case "for" her by saying that, unlike Trump, she's normal.

The problem (for me) with this view is that, while it's true she's not Trump and that this is a good thing, it's also true that she is advocating bad policies. It's fine to believe that her genuine intention is the betterment of society -- I would hope her supporters believe that, anyway. But, to me, (a) her intention doesn't matter, and (b) the outcome on society were these policies to go into effect would not be betterment.

In other words, her being not Trump doesn't suddenly make her agenda a positive thing for the country. Taxing unrealized capital gains is not a beneficial policy, even if the person proposing it is not a lunatic like Trump. Making people who have paid the bills they've amassed also pay the bills of people who have not paid the bills they've amassed is not a beneficial policy. It's a terrible idea, for numerous reasons.

I think it's telling that some of the cases being made for Harris are largely, if not entirely, just pointing out that Donald Trump is a loose cannon and she's not. It's not the first time I've seen something like this.

I heard him debate Shapiro on my girlfriend Barri Weiss's podcast. He admitted there that his case was an entirely negative one against Trump, and he'd probably vote against Kamala if Haley or Romney were the Repub nominee.

I find it amusing Ohio Guy says he agrees with Sam Harris so much when Harris has been so outspoken against fundamentalist Islam, in support of Israel, and against wokeness. I guarantee that Sam Harris does not consider the issues that Ohio Guy wants to gaslight about as fearmongering by right wing media. In fact, he's spoken about them frequently:

Some examples:

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What peaceful transition looks like

How soon we forget...

  • 168 people were killed, including 19 children and six Secret Service employees. A volunteer nurse was also killed by falling debris while responding to the emergency.


  • Business casualties
    The bombing damaged or destroyed 347 buildings, including 324 other buildings in addition to the Murrah Federal Building. The bombing also caused an estimated $652 million in damage
136396589-6267832b4b6061357a51c3616c8386c634bd8bdf.jpg
So Kamala was bailing out right wingers during the summer of love?

Movies, books, tv

So, after reading Killers of the Flower Moon, by David Grann, and really liking it, I decided to check out some of his other books. Currently, I am reading The Lost City of Z, the true story of Percy Fawcett, an explorer who disappeared in 1925 while searching for El Dorado in the Amazon rainforest. (There is also a movie based on the book.)

Anyway, I was struck by two observations:

1. This guy absolutely had more masculinity in his pinky than all of us combined.
images


2. The amount of worldwide fame explorers in general had was interesting. They were major celebrities, and people were riveted on a daily basis by their exploits.


Anyway, after I finish this book, I will move on to The Wager: A Tale of Shipwreck, Mutiny and Murder by Grann.
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The Serious Election Day Thread

I live in as about as rural area as one could here in NWI. Heavy heavy Trump area in 2016 and 2020. Long lines to vote in both 2016 and 2020. Trump signs all over my neighborhood those years. This year?.. I waited about 30 seconds (not minutes. SECONDS) for a booth to open. Zero Trump signs in my neighborhood and 2 Harris signs. Not sure it means anything but maybe?

The Serious Election Day Thread

I've been keeping up with the Florida returns, since they publish ballots cast by partisan registration in real time.

No surprise that Trump seems well-positioned to win there. But, depending on how the NPA ballots come out, it looks like he could get a double-digit margin. He only won it by 3.5% in 2020, so that would be quite a jump up if that's how it plays out.

As of now, they've counted 10,101,177 ballots (includes early and Election Day). Here's how the ballots work out by party ID:

Rep - 4,375,106 (43.31%)
Dem - 3,217,511 (31.85%)
NPA - 2,251,705 (22.29%)

The NPA estimate they have is about 56R-44D. So they're forecasting a 10.82% Trump advantage for the state.

Not a surprising outcome, but it would be a few ticks higher than the 8% lead Trump has in the RCP average. Notably, it's also about 9% behind DeSantis' margin of victory in 2022.
Yeah, not surprising really. FL is turning into the Rs CA. I don’t think the Ds put resources into the state this round. It’s a deep red state now and I don’t think that is changing anytime soon.

The Serious Election Day Thread

I've been keeping up with the Florida returns, since they publish ballots cast by partisan registration in real time.

No surprise that Trump seems well-positioned to win there. But, depending on how the NPA ballots come out, it looks like he could get a double-digit margin. He only won it by 3.5% in 2020, so that would be quite a jump up if that's how it plays out.

As of now, they've counted 10,101,177 ballots (includes early and Election Day). Here's how the ballots work out by party ID:

Rep - 4,375,106 (43.31%)
Dem - 3,217,511 (31.85%)
NPA - 2,251,705 (22.29%)

The NPA estimate they have is about 56R-44D. So they're forecasting a 10.82% Trump advantage for the state.

Not a surprising outcome, but it would be a few ticks higher than the 8% lead Trump has in the RCP average. Notably, it's also about 9% behind DeSantis' margin of victory in 2022.

Is there any better smell

Than from an open fire, from harvested hardwood trees from your own property. Split by hand. While setting under an inclosed 24x24 hip roof (much better than a gay pergola that some people still don’t have).
Smelling all of the Vanilla and deep chocolate aroma from the wood. While it has a deep, yet slow flame slowly rolling all of its essence into one’s nose?
Maybe even a very slight musk smell, that reminds of the sweat that created this heaven. Slight drizzle November rain in southern ish Indiana tapping on the tin roof.
Slight change:
"Complimented with the sweet burning smell of a single malt scotch in your hand"

My voting experience...and some thoughts

I was wavering this morning about actually not voting. Reports in my area, for early voting centers, were almost universally multiple hour lines. And then this morning I woke up to pictures of my hometown voting center having lines wrapped around the building. I've been pretty outspoken about my disdain for both sides right now, and for both leading candidates. So the long lines were ample reason to sit it out.

But that wasn't sitting well with me. Voting is a civic duty, and my parents have instilled in me a pretty strong sense for that duty.

So, Facebook posts led me to a church a town over from me, that supposedly had short lines. Turns out, the lines were very manageable, and the wait wasn't overly long!

I was kinda pissed that the machines wouldn't let me write in Curt Cignetti for every race. I know he'd struggle to make the meetings, but he'd be a GREAT school board member for my school system!

As I witnessed the voting volunteers helping a disabled person more comfortably vote...and patiently helped an older voter figure out the machines, and the process to submit the votes...I was forced to lament the fact that there are thousands upon thousands of volunteers today, on both sides of the aisle, that are infinitely better people and better choices than many of the people on the ballots they're helping everyone cast today... But despite that frustration with the choices, I walked away proud that I did my duty. And I was comforted that, despite all the warnings, the BS fear mongering, from both sides...that we have the best, safest, and most fair election process in the world. Whoever wins today will have won. Some will try to cheat. Some will probably succeed, on both sides. But it won't decide the election.

I'll be surprised if we know tonight who won. But when we do know, I hope the losing side handles themselves with an ounce of the integrity that these volunteers are.
You must live in the inner city where there are only Dem voters, ‘cause those are the only places Republicans make it hard to vote…
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Zach Edey tonight

That's inaccurate and you realize that. Guys roll over here when ignorant statements are made about Edey, Painter etc. and try to educate the moronic posters that deliver these. Do a couple of Purdue people initiate posts? Rarely and agree when they do that's strange. Mostly it's to refute the bleeding heart folk(45K poster, acronym yahoo guy etc.)
Always find fans(in any sport) that continuously complain about officiating laughable. Oh yeah not bad effort from Edey yesterday.

The best responses here are when IU people respond about not going on Purdue's board. What in the hell would they discuss??? Hey we made sweet 16 8 years ago! TJD is top 5 career statistics! He also won a play in game! Some of you aren't that bright but can't be that dumb.

IU will improve but prepare yourself for another year behind the Boilers. Painter will have this group jelling come January, bank on it.
What's inaccurate, that Edey got preferential treatment from college refs, when he was always the biggest, strongest and most physical player on the floor, and NEVER got in foul trouble? You think he went to the pros and suddenly became more physical and got called for it? It's not only accurate, it's self-evident. I've defended Edey here for a couple years, and have always said that, barring injury, I thought he'd have a 10 yr NBA career. Not at all surprised that he's doing well... or that he's being called for fouls because of how he plays. He's smart, he'll adjust, just as he would've had college refs made the same calls for the same type of play.

My voting experience...and some thoughts

In the People’s Republic of Pennsylvania I only have one polling place and am not allowed to vote at others. Line was 35 min. Bottleneck is the lady with the book checking people in. Stupid system. Need two book ladies.
Yeah, that's the same for us in Ohio. I can vote at my designated location or down at the courthouse, that's it. I voted last Friday at the courthouse. Line was out the door, about 45 min (maybe 100ish people?), and that was with 5 check-in attendants and a pretty fast process.
I probably could have voted today and it might have been faster, but just wanted to get it done.
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