This article was written by IU baseball staff writer, Cassady Palmer
**Quick statistical note: all stats used are averaged over nine innings to take out any added effect of playing extra innings (such as scoring or giving up more runs, having more strikeouts, committing more errors, etc.). So when I say that a value is the average per game, it is really the average per nine-inning game.**
While the Indiana baseball team has only played eight Big Ten games so far out of a total of 23 conference games, things are not going well for the Hoosiers. IU is now 2-6 in conference play, despite holding an 18-10 mark on the season (as a reference, there are currently four teams ahead of Indiana in the conference standings who have worse overall records). This puts the Hoosiers in 10th place in the Big Ten. For those of you who aren't familiar with the format of the Big Ten Tourney for baseball, only the top eight teams even get into the tournament. That is not so good for the Hoosiers right now.
So what's going on? Indiana has some impressive wins on the season, including a series win at Stanford, a two-game split with College of Charleston, a sweep of Cal State Fullerton, and wins against Louisville and at Kentucky. And which Big Ten teams have the Hoosiers faced so far? Surely it's the big hitters, teams like Illinois, Nebraska, and Maryland, right? In reality, these losses have come against the likes of Penn St., Iowa, and Michigan, teams that had a combined conference record last year of 28-43 (by comparison, Indiana had 21 conference wins on their own last year).
So why can't the Hoosiers beat these inferior team? It can really be summed up by timing. The pitching and bats have struggled to sync up in Big Ten play the way they were early in the season. And well, the stats don't lie (although the small sample size of Big Ten games should be considered; things could change simply because Indiana will play more games and water finds its level eventually), and the stats aren't kind to the Hoosiers. Just about every major statistical category has seen at least a minor dip in conference play compared to non-conference.
On the offensive end, Indiana is getting almost one fewer hit per game in Big Ten play, resulting in almost 1.5 fewer runs per game. Even a non-baseball fan can figure out that fewer runs is never a good thing (particularly when it comes against mediocre or worse opposition). The Hoosiers are also averaging almost one more strikeout per game in conference play. A distinction should be made between strikeouts and all other outs because strikeouts are the least productive of all outs. In comparison, it is still possible to bring home or advance a runner with a flyout or a groundout for example, but a strikeout doesn't provide that option. So almost one extra strikeout per game is, once again, not a nice stat.
But these offensive dips pale in comparison to the defensive woes. Indiana is committing more errors in Big Ten games (about a third of an error more, so not much considering one of the games featured eight Hoosier errors). The real issue, however, has come with pitching. The Indiana pitching staff is giving up three more earned runs in Big Ten play than in the nonconference, going from a respectable 2.39 to a ridiculous 5.5. But when you take into account the unearned runs also, the Hoosiers are actually giving up almost seven runs per game in conference play, up from three runs in the nonconference.
Now, anyone who has seen much of the Hoosiers of late would be able to tell you that pitching has been problematic. When the Indiana starter pitches well, the bullpen implodes. When the bullpen is throwing well, the starter has already given it up. And on the occasions when both the starters and the relievers are on their games at the same time, well, either the defense commits an absurd amount of errors to give up a bunch of runs or the offense can't get anything going at all. And it's not just one pitcher who is having difficulties (although some are riding the struggle bus a little bit harder than others). Seven pitchers who have pitched double-digit innings have ERAs above 3.00, and two of them are above 5.00 (Brian Hobbie at 5.65 and Christian Morris at 7.09). At the same time, only two Hoosier hurlers who have pitched a meaningful amount of innings have an ERA under 2.00 in Luke Harrison at 0.76 and Thomas Belcher at 0.96.
The series at Iowa is a perfect example of the timing troubles Indiana has had in Big Ten play. The first game featured Caleb Baragar, IU's most consistent starter. He pitched seven innings of one-run baseball, but unfortunately was tagged with the loss because the offense was unable to pull together a single run for him. Austin Foote and Evan Bell combined for an inning of work giving up no earned runs, and the Hoosiers went down 2-0. Jake Kelzer got the start in the second game and threw six innings giving up only one run. While the offense was still not where it needed to be, the dagger came from the bullpen where Hobbie and Foote gave up four combined earned runs without recording a single out. The Hoosiers lost 5-1, and Kelzer was also left on the hook for the loss despite a solid performance. To recap, so far we have both the starter and the bullpen pitching well but zero offense to back them up, and we've got the starter doing well but the bullpen giving it up. The final game was just as disheartening. In his first start back in the weekend rotation, Scott Effross gave up six earned runs while only recording one out before Coach Lemonis was forced to go to the bullpen. Considering their extended role, the relievers threw well, giving up four runs in 7.2 innings. The offense this time, however, was able to score six runs, going down by a score of 10-6. If the Hoosiers could have put all three parts together (starting pitching, relief pitching, and offense) for even one game, they could have avoided their first series sweep in 76 games.
Now, it would be very premature to say that the sky is falling around Bart Kaufman Field. There's still plenty of hope left for the Hoosiers, who still have series against Illinois, Maryland, Long Beach State, and Ohio State to boost their resume (and RPI for those who believe in that measure). We should also see the return of several injured Hoosiers, including starting shortstop Nick Ramos (he injured his wrist/hand in practice just before Big Ten play, and no timetable has been given as to his return), starting first/third baseman Austin Cangelosi (he sprained an ankle at Kentucky but was able to return to the lineup as designated hitter in the final game against Michigan on Sunday; as for when he can get back to the field, that is a question mark as well), and potentially starting pitcher Kyle Hart (he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery on his elbow last year and so far has only had a two-inning rehab start this season; he was up throwing in the bullpen on Sunday which should be a positive sign on his recovery).
There are also several Hoosiers who have improved their hitting in Big Ten play, led by Craig Dedelow, who is batting .444 in conference (he's hitting .308 outside of the Big Ten), and Scott Donley, who comes in at .433 in Big Ten (up from .295 in the nonconference). A couple of the Indiana position players have struggled at the plate during the Big Ten, but that could also be accounted for in the fact that the majority of the eight games have been away from home and in crappy weather.
All in all, if the Hoosiers can get their timing back between their offense and defense, things are not quite so bleak, all things considered. And this year's team is actually at the same overall record as last year's team after 28 games, and that team was a national seed. So don't count the Hoosiers out quite yet, because you know darn well they aren't counting themselves out.
Go Hoosiers!
Sorry, just saw this on the Basketball Premie Board, but it deserves to be here; an interesting thoughtful article.
This post was edited on 4/8 12:32 AM by snowling
Circle City
**Quick statistical note: all stats used are averaged over nine innings to take out any added effect of playing extra innings (such as scoring or giving up more runs, having more strikeouts, committing more errors, etc.). So when I say that a value is the average per game, it is really the average per nine-inning game.**
While the Indiana baseball team has only played eight Big Ten games so far out of a total of 23 conference games, things are not going well for the Hoosiers. IU is now 2-6 in conference play, despite holding an 18-10 mark on the season (as a reference, there are currently four teams ahead of Indiana in the conference standings who have worse overall records). This puts the Hoosiers in 10th place in the Big Ten. For those of you who aren't familiar with the format of the Big Ten Tourney for baseball, only the top eight teams even get into the tournament. That is not so good for the Hoosiers right now.
So what's going on? Indiana has some impressive wins on the season, including a series win at Stanford, a two-game split with College of Charleston, a sweep of Cal State Fullerton, and wins against Louisville and at Kentucky. And which Big Ten teams have the Hoosiers faced so far? Surely it's the big hitters, teams like Illinois, Nebraska, and Maryland, right? In reality, these losses have come against the likes of Penn St., Iowa, and Michigan, teams that had a combined conference record last year of 28-43 (by comparison, Indiana had 21 conference wins on their own last year).
So why can't the Hoosiers beat these inferior team? It can really be summed up by timing. The pitching and bats have struggled to sync up in Big Ten play the way they were early in the season. And well, the stats don't lie (although the small sample size of Big Ten games should be considered; things could change simply because Indiana will play more games and water finds its level eventually), and the stats aren't kind to the Hoosiers. Just about every major statistical category has seen at least a minor dip in conference play compared to non-conference.
On the offensive end, Indiana is getting almost one fewer hit per game in Big Ten play, resulting in almost 1.5 fewer runs per game. Even a non-baseball fan can figure out that fewer runs is never a good thing (particularly when it comes against mediocre or worse opposition). The Hoosiers are also averaging almost one more strikeout per game in conference play. A distinction should be made between strikeouts and all other outs because strikeouts are the least productive of all outs. In comparison, it is still possible to bring home or advance a runner with a flyout or a groundout for example, but a strikeout doesn't provide that option. So almost one extra strikeout per game is, once again, not a nice stat.
But these offensive dips pale in comparison to the defensive woes. Indiana is committing more errors in Big Ten games (about a third of an error more, so not much considering one of the games featured eight Hoosier errors). The real issue, however, has come with pitching. The Indiana pitching staff is giving up three more earned runs in Big Ten play than in the nonconference, going from a respectable 2.39 to a ridiculous 5.5. But when you take into account the unearned runs also, the Hoosiers are actually giving up almost seven runs per game in conference play, up from three runs in the nonconference.
Now, anyone who has seen much of the Hoosiers of late would be able to tell you that pitching has been problematic. When the Indiana starter pitches well, the bullpen implodes. When the bullpen is throwing well, the starter has already given it up. And on the occasions when both the starters and the relievers are on their games at the same time, well, either the defense commits an absurd amount of errors to give up a bunch of runs or the offense can't get anything going at all. And it's not just one pitcher who is having difficulties (although some are riding the struggle bus a little bit harder than others). Seven pitchers who have pitched double-digit innings have ERAs above 3.00, and two of them are above 5.00 (Brian Hobbie at 5.65 and Christian Morris at 7.09). At the same time, only two Hoosier hurlers who have pitched a meaningful amount of innings have an ERA under 2.00 in Luke Harrison at 0.76 and Thomas Belcher at 0.96.
The series at Iowa is a perfect example of the timing troubles Indiana has had in Big Ten play. The first game featured Caleb Baragar, IU's most consistent starter. He pitched seven innings of one-run baseball, but unfortunately was tagged with the loss because the offense was unable to pull together a single run for him. Austin Foote and Evan Bell combined for an inning of work giving up no earned runs, and the Hoosiers went down 2-0. Jake Kelzer got the start in the second game and threw six innings giving up only one run. While the offense was still not where it needed to be, the dagger came from the bullpen where Hobbie and Foote gave up four combined earned runs without recording a single out. The Hoosiers lost 5-1, and Kelzer was also left on the hook for the loss despite a solid performance. To recap, so far we have both the starter and the bullpen pitching well but zero offense to back them up, and we've got the starter doing well but the bullpen giving it up. The final game was just as disheartening. In his first start back in the weekend rotation, Scott Effross gave up six earned runs while only recording one out before Coach Lemonis was forced to go to the bullpen. Considering their extended role, the relievers threw well, giving up four runs in 7.2 innings. The offense this time, however, was able to score six runs, going down by a score of 10-6. If the Hoosiers could have put all three parts together (starting pitching, relief pitching, and offense) for even one game, they could have avoided their first series sweep in 76 games.
Now, it would be very premature to say that the sky is falling around Bart Kaufman Field. There's still plenty of hope left for the Hoosiers, who still have series against Illinois, Maryland, Long Beach State, and Ohio State to boost their resume (and RPI for those who believe in that measure). We should also see the return of several injured Hoosiers, including starting shortstop Nick Ramos (he injured his wrist/hand in practice just before Big Ten play, and no timetable has been given as to his return), starting first/third baseman Austin Cangelosi (he sprained an ankle at Kentucky but was able to return to the lineup as designated hitter in the final game against Michigan on Sunday; as for when he can get back to the field, that is a question mark as well), and potentially starting pitcher Kyle Hart (he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery on his elbow last year and so far has only had a two-inning rehab start this season; he was up throwing in the bullpen on Sunday which should be a positive sign on his recovery).
There are also several Hoosiers who have improved their hitting in Big Ten play, led by Craig Dedelow, who is batting .444 in conference (he's hitting .308 outside of the Big Ten), and Scott Donley, who comes in at .433 in Big Ten (up from .295 in the nonconference). A couple of the Indiana position players have struggled at the plate during the Big Ten, but that could also be accounted for in the fact that the majority of the eight games have been away from home and in crappy weather.
All in all, if the Hoosiers can get their timing back between their offense and defense, things are not quite so bleak, all things considered. And this year's team is actually at the same overall record as last year's team after 28 games, and that team was a national seed. So don't count the Hoosiers out quite yet, because you know darn well they aren't counting themselves out.
Go Hoosiers!
Sorry, just saw this on the Basketball Premie Board, but it deserves to be here; an interesting thoughtful article.
This post was edited on 4/8 12:32 AM by snowling
Circle City
