Cincinnati odds moved 4 points against us since the start of the year
Western Kentucky odds moved 11.5 points against us since the start of the year
Average difference from initial spread = 7.75 points worse
Assuming the opponents are the same level as the start of the year (they aren't), here are projected odds for the 7.75 point difference from pre-season (used 7.5):
Indiana at Penn State -13.5
Michigan State at Indiana -9.5
Ohio State -18.5 at Indiana
Indiana at Maryland -1
Indiana at Michigan -11
Rutgers at Indiana (no pre-season odds)
Minnesota -1 at Indiana
Indiana at Purdue -1
Now let's take into account how each team has performed after 4 weeks:
We were 4 point dogs at Iowa and lost by 28
We were 32 point favorites vs Idaho and won by 42
We were 4 point dogs to Cincinnati and lost by 14
We were 9 point favorites at Western Kentucky and won by 2
Average performance against the spread = 7.75 points worse
Penn State is out-performing their point spreads on average by 7.5 points. This changes the odds to PSU -21.
Michigan State is out-performing their point spreads on average by 16 points. This changes the odds to MSU -6.5.
Ohio State is under-performing their point spreads on average by 6.5 points. This changes the odds to OSU -12.
Maryland is out-performing their point spreads on average by 4 points. This changes the odds to Maryland -5.
Michigan is out-performing their point spreads on average by 10.5 points. This changes the odds to Michigan -21.5.
Rutgers is out-performing their point spreads on average by 17.5 points. Pre-season odds were likely Indiana -20, which makes IU a small favorite.
Minnesota is under-performing their point spreads on average by 4 points. This changes the odds to Indiana -3.
Purdue is out-performing their point spreads on average by 0.5 points. This changes the odds to Purdue -1.5.
Western Kentucky odds moved 11.5 points against us since the start of the year
Average difference from initial spread = 7.75 points worse
Assuming the opponents are the same level as the start of the year (they aren't), here are projected odds for the 7.75 point difference from pre-season (used 7.5):
Indiana at Penn State -13.5
Michigan State at Indiana -9.5
Ohio State -18.5 at Indiana
Indiana at Maryland -1
Indiana at Michigan -11
Rutgers at Indiana (no pre-season odds)
Minnesota -1 at Indiana
Indiana at Purdue -1
Now let's take into account how each team has performed after 4 weeks:
We were 4 point dogs at Iowa and lost by 28
We were 32 point favorites vs Idaho and won by 42
We were 4 point dogs to Cincinnati and lost by 14
We were 9 point favorites at Western Kentucky and won by 2
Average performance against the spread = 7.75 points worse
Penn State is out-performing their point spreads on average by 7.5 points. This changes the odds to PSU -21.
Michigan State is out-performing their point spreads on average by 16 points. This changes the odds to MSU -6.5.
Ohio State is under-performing their point spreads on average by 6.5 points. This changes the odds to OSU -12.
Maryland is out-performing their point spreads on average by 4 points. This changes the odds to Maryland -5.
Michigan is out-performing their point spreads on average by 10.5 points. This changes the odds to Michigan -21.5.
Rutgers is out-performing their point spreads on average by 17.5 points. Pre-season odds were likely Indiana -20, which makes IU a small favorite.
Minnesota is under-performing their point spreads on average by 4 points. This changes the odds to Indiana -3.
Purdue is out-performing their point spreads on average by 0.5 points. This changes the odds to Purdue -1.5.
