Question for my brilliant friends on the left

[davegolf]

What happens after the Iranian warships arrive in Yemen and if they take any action to support the rebels and enter the fight against the Saudis and their allies. What do we do? There is no doubt that the Shiite rebels (Houthis) are backed by Iran. Could this be another Poland in the Middle East! We have to have a plan to meet that possibility but what should it be.

Iran Warships to Yemen

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Let Iran and the Saudis handle it?

This is not a clear case of an outnumbered group of freedom fighters battling against a despot. This is one group who wants a despotic regime versus another group who want a despotic regime. I see no advantage to the US being involved.

I imagine we share satellite and other Intel with the Saudis. I am not sure I like even that, but I cannot agree with anything more. In theory Saudi Arabia is an ally, but we also know they provide a lot of material support to those who involved in radical Islam.

Most our terrorist threat comes from Sunnis. Frankly, if Iran forces Sunni groups to play defense I am not sure I would not share Intel with them.

The Middle East reminds me of the Spanish Civil War. People flocking to one side or the other for various reasons, so much so that groups on the same side hate each other almost as much as the enemy. In spain, had the Republican side won it may have gone communist, it may not have. The other choice was fascist. Faced between helping Stalin or helping Hitler, I am not sure letting both waste their supplies isn't the best answer. In this case, ASAP has to fight any Iranian backed groups in Yemen. That has to slow AQAP's ability to export.

 

[davegolf]

Re: Let Iran and the Saudis handle it?


We have already jeopardized one ally in the Middle East should we jeopardize another if the ask for help? What is this deal with Iran. They are a nation leadership and military as vowed terrorists and a mantra of destroy America. Why all the love by this Administration.

 

[Rockfish1]

"Let's you and him fight."

Our only interest in Yemen is to neutralize Houthi rebels trying to seize the country hate al Qaeda. If they win, the new Yemeni government would be much more hostile to AQAP than the old one was.

Even if we reach a nuclear agreement with Iran, Iran will remain a bad actor. Nevertheless, it's not clear to me why we're backing the Saudis in Yemen.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Dave. do me one favor

Google the phrase Saudi support terrorism. You will find many articles. You will discover the Saudis may funnel more support to terrorists than any other nation. If not the worst, they are toward the top. Then look at the groups they support. You have heard of them. And these are not just liberal sites, CATO has an article.

Do that and let me know if it changes your opinion.

 

[NPT]

Dave, it's not like

we have a discrete choice between good and evil. I wish it were that simple. The Saudis have been a big supporter of terrorism so I don't know as I would call them an ally. The Saudis are for the Saudis and for whatever will keep the current regime in power.

 

[davegolf]

Great points without name calling I like it


So it is a consensus we are better off staying neutral or supporting Iran than supporting Saudi Arabia. I don't see a mantra of the Saudis being destroy America but I could be wrong.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I think the issue with the Saudi's is complex

A lot of the support coming from Saudi Arabia is not directly through the government. Rather the Saudis have encouraged an extreme brand of Islam inside their own country. The people who follow that brand then use their resources to provide aid and comfort to AQ, AQAP, ISIL, and whomever else. The government either doesn't want to shut this down, or fears if it tries it will fall victim to internal revolution. Either way, the Saudis are often working at cross purposes. The government often does side with the US (and often not) while the people usually side against the west.

Where we are stuck, if this Saudi government falls what will replace it will be anti-western. But if they want to fund AQAP, and AQAP is stuck fighting Iran in Yemen and not trying to export terror, I see that as good. The problem is that areas of no government seem to allow for rapid growth of terrorist groups. So I'm not certain I want this to drag out, but if it does and Iran wins, it'll be there problem to try and crush these groups.

 

[hoot1]

Are we jeopardizing allies...

....such as Israel and Saudi Arabia by negotiating with Iran, or are we re-engaging our position relative to Israel and Saudi Arabia as per this article?

The article in part states,

The process of re-negotiations has already started, and the fact that the
US will be re-negotiating its own relations with her key regional
allies is quite evident from the agenda John Kerry forwarded during his
recent visit to Saudi Arabia. The main reason(s) for Kerry to visit
Saudia was not that the US needed Saudi 'support' for finalizing this
deal; it was necessary because the US wanted to make sure Saudi support
in other matters of regional importance. Convincing Saudi Arabia to
accept any agreed nuclear deal is important to President Barack
Obama because he needs Riyadh to work closely with Washington on a host
of regional policies and to maintain its role as a 'moderating'
influence in oil markets. While the main critics of the US push for a
nuclear deal with Iran are Israel and Congressional Republicans, Sunni
Muslim powerhouse Saudi Arabia is also concerned that an accord would
allow Iran to devote more cash and energy to Shi'ite proxies
in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, and in Saudia itself, which might
lead to a serious escalation in regional conflict(s) of religious and
non-religious nature.

Stated another way, by taking a middle of the road position between Iran and Saudi Arabia/Israel can we be a more effective power broker than taking sides against Iran which has pretty much been our position since 1979?

I have a sneaky suspicion this question will rise in the 2016 presidential election with Hillary's position possibly being closer to many of today's Republicans than to Obama's. It will be fun to watch.

 

[RBB89]

You really need to stop complaining about name calling.

You do it constantly and the sarcastic "brilliant friends on the left" comment isn't any better.

 

[davegolf]

Re: You really need to stop complaining about name calling.


No one especially not me has ever said that some of the libs on this board are not smart even brilliant. Read some of Sope or Rocks posts they are well written and brilliantly thought out. I just happen to disagree with their conclusions and that is my prerogative.

 

[mjvcaj]

Is Saudi supporting AQAP then?

That region is confusing as heck.

 

[meridian]

That's our Dave. What more do you expect from him? ***

***

 

[Rockfish1]

I don't know

But I suspect that just like us and every other country, Saudi Arabia has complex, occasionally inconsistent, and often obscure motivations -- many of which are at odds with our interests. I absolutely agree that the Middle East is hellishly complicated.

 

[davegolf]

Re: I don't know


See RBB89 - Brilliant observations and this time we totally agree!