Past As Prologue

[Fred C. Dobbs]

Before the season starts, I would like to look back at 2015-2016 and 2016-2017.

In 2015-2016 Indiana finished 27-8, 15-3 in the B1G, beat Chattanooga and Kentucky in the NCAA and lost to UNC. Indiana greatly overachieved their preseason rankings (middle of the B1G). They won the B1G going way with 4 season ending wins over Purdue, at Illinois, at Iowa and Maryland. Although IU lost to Michigan in the B1G tourney on a buzzer beater, IU blew out UTC and pulled away from Kentucky in the 2nd round of the NCAA, winning 73-67. IU lost to UNC with Johnson out and Hartman hurting. James Blackmon was out after the first 13 games.

In 2016-2017 Indiana finished 18-16, 7-11 in the B1G and lost at Georgia Tech in the first round of the NIT. Note: I watched that game from a row 7 seat that cost me $17. Although IU beat Kansas and UNC at the beginning of the season, the team played progressively worse as the season progressed. Indiana lost 10 of his its last 14 games. Tom Crean was fired after the season.

My question to the forum is, “What was difference between 2015-2016 and 2015-2017?

Tom Crean: I think that even Tom Crean’s detractors on this board would concede that he performed a masterful coaching job in 2015-2016. In 2016-2017 after Kansas and North Carolina nothing Tom Crean did worked. Nevertheless, in 2015-17 he didn’t lose his coaching ability nor basketball knowledge. He did lose his ability to prepare his team to play well. I think most of the answer lies elsewhere.

Here is what I have to offer:

• Point guard: Yogi Ferrell graduated and was replaced by Josh Newkirk. Our colleague TMP points out that Newkirk’s PER in 2016-2017 was very poor.
• James Blackmon: Combining 2015-2016 and 2016-2017, I offer the following observation. Whenever JBJ played, IU’s defense was somewhere from bad to poor. Whenever JBJ didn’t play, IU’s defense was good. Winning with bad defense is really, really hard.
• Talent and leadership: In 2016-1017 OG was hurt. Hartman was hurt. Bryant took a step backwards. Johnson’s shooting trended downward.

The past being prologue, what can we surmise about 2017-2018?

• Archie Miller is not constrained by the malaise that surrounded Tom Crean in 2016-2017. We are starting with a clean slate.
• Josh Newkirk, Devonte Green, Al Durham or someone else better step up to be a B1G class point guard. As Tom Izzo said, “Playing without a point guard is like a root canal”.
• Given that Archie Miller coaches defense and that none of the key players are defensive liabilities, I expect the defense to be consistently good game to game.
• In 2015-2016 IU played fast, generated good shots and got the ball to shooters. Shooters in turn made shots. None of this happened in 2016-2017. My question for 2017-2018 is just who exactly is going to get open and make shots. Our consensus scorer, Robert Johnson, was very inconsistent in 2016-2017.

One last point: I believe in playing fast. Playing fast with a talented point guard and a good team generates better shots than walking the ball up the court. Coaches like Red Auerbach, Bob Knight (in some seasons), Jerry Tarkanian, Tom Davis, Roy Williams, Mike D’Atoni (and many other NBA coaches) played fast successfully. What IU can’t do is play fast with poor point guard play or insufficient scoring talent. Watching how Archie Miller decides to play will be interesting and a statement about what he thinks of his team.