I like our chances at home against a Rutgers or Iowa before a road win in Happy Valley. PSU will be very improved this year. If we had any semblance of an offense last season, we would have made it 2 in a row against them at home.
2015 W-L Predictions
- Thread starter NatiHoosier
- Start date
I like our chances at home against a Rutgers or Iowa before a road win in Happy Valley. PSU will be very improved this year. If we had any semblance of an offense last season, we would have made it 2 in a row against them at home.
They could be really improved, but their oline is still a major question mark and could be as much of train wreck as last year. Their terrible oline loses its only two even decent guys, one of which was a second round pick.
But agree that home against Iowa and Rutgers are more likely
Just want to point out that Maryland drilled us with Nate playing. Our passing game was aweful.
Yer right - I always "recall" he was hurt at Mizzou - but it was Iowa.
I need to misremember better.
I'm still thinking we can beat Maryland this year - if we're fixed.
if Wilson does go 3-9 or 4-8, I'm not at all convinced that Glass is the guy I want naming his replacement--given that Wilson was Glass' one big, critical hire to date.
I believe there are only two games we have a less than 50% chance of winning: OSU & MSU. I believe we should beat SIU, FIU, Rutgers & Purdue. The swing games to me seem to be split in our favor: Western Kentucky (should be one of the mosty exciting games of the season), Wake Forest (at home I think this is a slam dunk) & Iowa; and in their favor: Penn St, Michigan & Maryland. I'll say 7-5, with one loss to the WKU, WF & Iowa group and one win against the PSU, UM & Maryland group.
I did a quick study before last season of how IU would have done with the offense from 2013 and just about any defense in the mid eighties.
They would have been around a seven to eight win team.
The defense we had last year ended up being in the high seventies in efficiency stats, as was noted in the thread, but the offense dropped off the face of the earth. It was a doomsday scenario for them.
We're not going to be as good offensively as we were in 2013 - that year we were top 15 in the country for the majority of the season on offense. But if we can get the offense into the mid 30s and keep the defense constant, we'll be around the high 40s and low 50s in FEI+, which fits the profile of a bowl team.
It's very crude projection work, but I'm going to guess 7-5 as the high end and 4-8 as the low end.
They would have been around a seven to eight win team.
The defense we had last year ended up being in the high seventies in efficiency stats, as was noted in the thread, but the offense dropped off the face of the earth. It was a doomsday scenario for them.
We're not going to be as good offensively as we were in 2013 - that year we were top 15 in the country for the majority of the season on offense. But if we can get the offense into the mid 30s and keep the defense constant, we'll be around the high 40s and low 50s in FEI+, which fits the profile of a bowl team.
It's very crude projection work, but I'm going to guess 7-5 as the high end and 4-8 as the low end.
It's hard to blame Nate too much, in my view. I can't remember a season with more dropped passes in key situations than this last one.
I don't have a problem with your thoughts on the defense...I think you are being a bit ridiculous on the offense though. We had a bunch of young WRs. They are allowed to develop and improve. And we aren't going to have a 2000 yard rusher, but Howard is really, really good. Not sure why you're basically writing him off.
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Ummm...you should go look at who recruited Hawkins out of HS. He committed to Florida. And the LBs aren't a problem on D...like, at all. No idea where you're getting that from. The problem, as usual, will be seeing if we can get any push up front to help the DBs.
I don't know. Call me "jaded" after years of "bigger, stronger, faster" being casually thrown around in preseason.
I think if Suds stays healthy, we are decent. Too many unknowns there.
Howard, for me anyway, is getting the "Jim Harbaugh" treatment before the season even starts. He landed on on preseason list as 2nd team all-conference without having played a down of Big Ten ball.
I like him on paper. But, to assume he will replace Tevin without much of a dropoff is a stretch.
Our receivers absolutely have to come through. Hawkins has the size. Can he play? J-Shun will be Wynn 2.0 before it's all done and I like him. If JUCO Patrick and somebody like Booth or Cobbs can be that big receiver we need, the group can do good things.
And, I absolutely love the pipeline of kids with Westbrook, Majette and Thornton.
I just bought a college football magazine today and I gotta tell ya, it's hard to find 6 wins on our schedule. If IU can run the non conference slate, then yes, they should win 6. Problem is, this club hasn't shown the ability to beat Wake Forest or even Western Ky. They lost to Bowling Green last year....with Sudfeld healthy....
The WR position needs to show major, major improvement. We will have a nice running game but we've had that for several years with Tevin back there. The defense giving up a gaudy 32.5pts per game doesn't bode well. I've personally felt like the program was bowl worthy these last few years but the coaching hasn't been what it needed to be in order to beat the Ball States, Navy, and other lesser teams to achieve bowl success.
I'd LOVE to see a bowl game, Nate deserves it.
The WR position needs to show major, major improvement. We will have a nice running game but we've had that for several years with Tevin back there. The defense giving up a gaudy 32.5pts per game doesn't bode well. I've personally felt like the program was bowl worthy these last few years but the coaching hasn't been what it needed to be in order to beat the Ball States, Navy, and other lesser teams to achieve bowl success.
I'd LOVE to see a bowl game, Nate deserves it.
Because Howard has played two years of D-1 football, and ran for 1500 yards last year. He has played against SEC teams and did well despite playing behind a line that is not nearly as good as ours. No, he is not Tevin Coleman.
Perfect world? 12-0, of course!
Semi-perfect based on program history and the parameters set? 9-3 ... 5-1 at home (no win over OSU, but entertaining game that reveals IU is ready to compete), 4-2 on the road (PSU and MSU hold serve at home).
Optimistic reality? 8-4 (add a MD loss to the semi-perfect world)
Reality? 6-6 (wins over ISU, FIU, WKU, Rutgers, Iowa, Purdue)
Pessimistic reality? 5-7 (take away the Iowa win)
Pure pessimism? 2-10. Wilson fired.
It's Indiana ... any of the scenarios (except 'Perfect World') wouldn't be shocking.
Semi-perfect based on program history and the parameters set? 9-3 ... 5-1 at home (no win over OSU, but entertaining game that reveals IU is ready to compete), 4-2 on the road (PSU and MSU hold serve at home).
Optimistic reality? 8-4 (add a MD loss to the semi-perfect world)
Reality? 6-6 (wins over ISU, FIU, WKU, Rutgers, Iowa, Purdue)
Pessimistic reality? 5-7 (take away the Iowa win)
Pure pessimism? 2-10. Wilson fired.
It's Indiana ... any of the scenarios (except 'Perfect World') wouldn't be shocking.
What a great football thread.. Most boards are busy hacking at each other or other fans..Good posts, knowledgeable.. I think I might disagree about your beating PSU, I expect a much improved offense and a strong defense..I hope IU has a terrific year..
I actually don't disagree...but, I haven't seen anything to suggest that Glass' job is at risk relative to football
while the consensus seems to be that Wilson will get whacked if he can't get to a bowl game this year, not one "expert" suggests that Glass needs to go as well
basketball - different story
Glass isn't in any danger and I think Wilson not making a bowl won't automatically mean he's gone. Glass understands that firing Wilson will only take IU back to square one, with many more losing years to follow.
Looks like there are two camps and good reasons to be in both. I predicted 9 wins last year and that was a bit overly optimistic as the receiving core was not ready for prime time and the defense took a little longer to settle into the new system. I still belive if Sud stayed healthy 7 wins were right there to be had. I believe that the team is showing steady improvement that was masked by the qb situation last year. If the wr and db cores can step up I think 8 wins are possible. We need to get through the first four games and build some experience and confidence.
I am not a gambling man but if I were, I'd place my big bet on six wins. But, I'd also go over to the $2 window and bet on seven and eight wins.
Been there, done that. A safe bet is 3-4 wins. That is, unfortunately, the ceiling with Wilson.
I wasn't "predicting" Glass would be let go if Wilson's replaced--just that I wouldn't have much (if any) trust in Glass to find a successful replacement for Wilson.
sorry, but if WIlson's still posting a losing season in Year 5 then he hasn't actually moved the program very far beyond square one anyway. I simply don't buy the theory that IU's football program is so uniquely, historically awful that a coach needs 6, 8, maybe 10 years to turn it around. Iowa's program was in just as bad a shape when Fry took it over, and Northwestern's was as well when Barnett took it over. Fry was Iowa's 4th head coach in 8 seasons, and UI hadn't had a winning season in 17 years. IIRC, Northwestern had had 19 or 20 straight losing seasons when Barnett was hired.
I certainly understand your view, but IU will go backward quickly if Wilson is cut loose. And with the poor tradition and lack of fan support, they aren't likely to upgrade with a new coach.
Not all losing seasons are created equal. While Iowa may not have had a winning record in awhile, Fry's predecessor averaged almost 3 CONFERENCE wins a year. IU had just a single conference win 7 of the 9 seasons before Wilson along with the 3 immediately prior.
no disrespect, but I'm not buying it. been around IU football for more than a half-century and the idea that Fry (and even more so Barnett) somehow had it "easier" than Wilson is IMO just bogus. Especially given how many more bowl games there are today than ever before.
And when you add in how much more recently IU had been to a bowl game when Wilson took over than either Fry-Iowa or Barney-NW, the argument's even less convincing to me. Wilson needs to man up this season. Five years should be enough for ANY coach at ANY FBS school to turn things around. It's just a *%&$# shame that Knorr wasn't his first assistant hire.
And when you add in how much more recently IU had been to a bowl game when Wilson took over than either Fry-Iowa or Barney-NW, the argument's even less convincing to me. Wilson needs to man up this season. Five years should be enough for ANY coach at ANY FBS school to turn things around. It's just a *%&$# shame that Knorr wasn't his first assistant hire.
Except that, you know, we won 5 two years ago. Hell, we were a fumble away from winning 6.
I know. I don't usually like throwing that out there, but the "Wilson's ceiling is 3-4 wins" seemed a little silly.
Yep.
If Wilson can't do it, it's back to the Abyss.
We need to man up this year.
Money players make money plays at money time.
It's money time.
If you believe that hiring Knorr right off the bat would have accomplished something by now, then wouldn't it be prudent to give Knorr more than 2 years to do something with Wilson?
this is probably the toughest coaching job in the country. we finally decided to invest in the program after neglecting it for decades. we've got the pieces in place. we have to stay the course.
In Wilson's own words: "There is no reason that IU should not have a good football program."
We are suffering from decades of neglect at the hands of the administration. Until the Hep era did they start to get serious about football investment.
We are suffering from decades of neglect at the hands of the administration. Until the Hep era did they start to get serious about football investment.
so now we need to give Wilson AND Knorr more time? pass.
If Wilson can't get to at least .500 this year IMO he doesn't deserve an extension. But Glass will probably have to either 1) give him an extension or 2) replace him, and I'm not optimistic about the prospect of Glass hiring another HFC. So I would not be at all surprised to see Wilson end up somewhere around 5-7 and still get an extension (especially if Glass feels he likely will have to "do something" about the MBB program by next spring).
Then again, maybe 2015 will be one of those extremely rare IU FB seasons when both injuries and bad officiating are minimal--in which case 6-6 or 7-5 is within reach.
This is a loser attitude. If Wilson can't win in 5 years, he's not going to win. Lynch was 5-6 and beat PU. Wilson hasn't surpassed that since and last year was a disaster.
If he can't win, get someone in here who can. What happened to those fantastic recruiting classes everyone raves about? Surely a good coach can win with all that talent......
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And Lynch was a dropped Belcher pass from winning 6 and going to a bowl game, which means his contract would have been extended.
Wilson would still be an assistant.
See how that works?
My biggest concern with Wilson, and has been since he got thumped by Ball State in his first game as coach, is his overall GameDay coaching ability. Other than that, I'm not concerned....he needs to show me he's a good game day coach. The Missouri game last year was a start, as well as beating an awful Purdue team last year.
in 2010 Lynch beat
1-10 Towson
2-10 WKU
1-11 Akron
4-8 Ark St (nearly lost this game)
4-8 Pur
Last year's "disaster" would have been competitive with if not beaten the 2010 IU team.
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